Leveraging Tails

Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.

In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.

The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome. And while we can’t walk through this full process each week this should provide a window into how to build a process to beyond the logic for this game and matched with ones own opinions.

CAR- 2.5/-5.5/-9.5

Let us begin, as always, by looking to the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis. Here we have a look at EDP (Earned Drive Points) which quantifies a drive’s quality on a points per drive basis, as determined by how repeatable and sustainable the success on a drive was.

And we see Panthers and Saints teams that have been fairly similar in their output on offense with the Panthers a slightly better defense.

Or here we have EPA/Play which suggests a similar story of a slightly better Panthers offense and defense. Choose your efficiency metric and this will reveal a similar story of the Panthers slightly outperforming this Saints team from a fundamentals POV.

Here we have the current Polymarket odds at 55% for the Saints, with the market having having the Saints as slight favorites, that accounting for home field suggests two roughly even teams. And it is worth noting this is a Panthers D getting far healthier returning their best pass rusher Jaelan Phillips while CBs Will Lee (and Mike Jackson) might return as well, giving this unit a huge boost from previous weeks weighing down some of the sample.

Matchup Angles

Beyond some potential value on the fundamentals, there are plenty of ways for this game to play out that make the Panthers attractive on the tails. The Panthers have been one of the blitz-heaviest teams in the NFL (its possible they’re less blitz happy without DC Evero) and that has been an area where Shough and the Saints have struggled.

Shough has been above average in his EPA without the blitz, but against the blitz his EPA takes a major hit, with the delta between the two roughly 0.20 points per play.

And this is a New Orleans offense getting nothing on the ground, dead last in Rush Success and 4th worst in EPA over the last month, and now down their starting Center. Against a healthier D that has done a great job limiting explosive plays (fewest explosives last month, 4th best for season), for the Saints to have success I think they will need to sustain drives via third and longs and intermediate passing plays on early downs which is not the ideal recipe for one dimensional sustained success. Or at the very least, it leaves open a large mass of this game where the Saints struggle to move the ball against the Panthers blitz and against a D stopping explosives.

And this is a Panthers offense that has put up some massive performances against some of the worse defenses in the NFL and in some matchups that play to Bryce Young’s strengths. A matchup against the Saints fills that exact profile.

Young has been far better against Single High than he has against two high and the Saints just so happen to play Single High at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL.

Likewise, the Saints have been dreadful generating pressure, 30th in pressure rate and 28th/29th in quick pressure & disruption pressure rates. That’s a welcome development for Bryce Young who has been one of the most pressured QBs in the NFL.

Young has seen disruption pressure nearly 22% of the time right there with Maye, Jackson, Hurts, and Herbert for worst in the NFL. And on the plays in which he avoids disruption pressure, Young has been terrific with 70th percentile EPA/Play.

Where Young has had some of his most success is in throwing deep where the Saints have been abysmal defending, 2nd to worst EPA while allowing the explosive plays at the 4th worst rate in the NFL. With open run lanes and time to throw the Carolina offense should be primed to excel with every opportunity to win with some margin and that’s the alt we’ll be on here.

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There is some weather to watch ahead of this game that might require an update as we get closer to kickoff. I say this as it is currently pouring outside in NY. But let’s dive into the matchup and the corresponding tails angles.

Giants Disruptive D vs Daniels

As we discussed last week, the Giants’ pass rush has emerged over the last month as top 5 in nearly every pass rush metric, including quick pressure and pressure disruption. This is connected to the coverage, which has gotten surprise stud Deonte Banks back and Newsome returned as well, resulting in a defense that is 2nd in perfect coverage rate. In fact, no defense over the last month has been as disruptive as the Giants, who lead the NFL with a 67% disruption rate.

The run D has also gone from bottom of the pack to a top unit. The result is a defense with a top series success rate and a spot atop the league in virtually every defensive metric.

It’s not just that the team has improved. They’ve also made some philosophical changes. They’ve begun loading the box more, moved away from man, and are sitting in more zone and 2-high looks. They’ve also added blitz packages with Arvell Reese, where he has emerged as dominant pass rusher.

The result, is a defense that is #1 in SR allowed, #1 in YPD, and #1 in most efficiency metrics. The Giants D might not be the best in the NFL, but over the last month it has played like a seriously good unit, and I think this is a seriously good group.

That’s a bullish forecast for the defense generally, but I think it’s particularly interesting in how it intersects with Jayden Daniels and his play style. Since coming back from injury, Daniels has pretty drastically changed the way he scrambles and, therefore, how he interacts with pressure.

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If you’re new here we’re going to discuss tails angles, matchups the market is (I think) not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented with your own thoughts.

My apologies for any typos…. let’s be real, they’re kinda funny and we’re not here to read beautiful english but to talk ball and tails.

Tails Angles:

NO

• The Shedeur experience rolls on, and he’s got about as good a matchup as possible. The problem is that Sanders has shown nothing in the data to suggest he’s NFL caliber, with horrific grading and production in year 1 (-0.27 EPA/play, not ideal) Now, we could wash it away and say this situation was bad last year (and that’s true), and it is certainly possible that with some better WRs, another year in the system, and a bad matchup, he puts together a huge game But I think its more likely we have a guy who is simply not an NFL QB and is unlikely to take advantage of the best of matchups. Still, tails in both directions to play!

• On the other side of the ball, the Saints have really struggled to run the dam ball and that has been the path of least resistance to beating the Browns D so far this season. But this matchup fits all of the splits that Shough likes. He’s 0.15 EPA/Play better against single high than two-high and Browns lead the NFL in Single High. He has a same 0.13 EPA/Play increase with no blitz that the Browns rarely do. And he’s better against man than zone where the Browns are also the very top of the NFL. And he’s getting reinforcements now with Tyson back and with Banks back at LT who was a stud in year 1 for the Saints. At home this is a spot where the Saints can have success moving the ball through the air and if they do win and its not just a terrible Sanders game, it is likely through Shough and the passing attack.

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Tails Angles:

NYJ ML/ -2.5/-5.5

Let us begin, as usual, by looking to the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.

Looking at EDP, (Earned Drive Points) which quantifies a drive’s quality on a points per drive basis, as determined by how repeatable and sustainable the success on a drive was. The Chiefs have been better team on both sides of the ball, with the main gap coming a Jets D performing far worse than the Chiefs.

Or here we have a look at EPA/Play which reveals a similar story with a slightly better Chiefs offense and far better defense.

But the market is pricing this one as though the two teams are in completely different tiers with a 9.5/10 point spread and KC 80% to win. Most of the markets value comes from still pricing this Jets O as a bottom unit, with this market estimate from inpredictable having the Jets as 2.5 spread points worse than average and the 23rd best offense. From an EPA and EDP standpoint, on the fundamentals alone, that looks to be a mispricing.

But there are also matchup angles that would appear for the Jets to be in a decent spot offensively—at least on the tails. The KC D has struggled to stop the deep pass so far this season allowing the 3rd worst EPA/Play on deep balls. With some of the game’s best deep WRs (Cooper and Mitchell in particular) the Jets have had among the games most potent deep attacks even without Wilson (though that obviously dings the case here).

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Stats & Angles:

Intro Note: Football is a matchup and idiosyncratic game where teams change their behavior over the course of a season, players improve, and random results and injuries can skew outcomes that don’t necessarily reflect underlying value.

I personally find that so much of my success betting at this point in the season relies on sifting through the data to understand the sample sizes that are the most relevant/predictive going forward. We are starting to see teams change their methods of attack and in some cases personnel changes that can make all the difference going forward.

TB:

The Bucs D under Todd Bowles has always prioritized loading the box to sell out to stop the run. And through 4 weeks, the team continued on that path playing heavy boxes on close to 60% of plays (2nd most in the NFL). But the team began to lighten the box in week 5 and have been around 41% loaded boxes, right around league average.

The result is a run defense that has struggled a bit more over the last month moving from top 5 in Rush EPA, SR and YPC to one that is towards the middle of the pack in those run metrics now.

And the pass defense has improved dramatically as well top 10 in basically every production metric including YPD, EPA, SR. (#1, #1, #4). This if notable on the matchups front as the market might price this as an elite run defense going forward, though they’ve made a schematic change purposely that will make the run defense less efficient at the benefit of the pass D.

Beyond the schematic change, the team also began playing David Walker at DE who has been an absolute revelation for the pass rush.

Walker is 2nd in the NFL among DE at generating pressure that blows up plays and is finishing those pressure plays as well. The TB D was dead last in pressure rate early in the season but with Walker in a full time role, this unit is now middle of the pack in their pressure rates, quick pressure rates, disruption pressure rates etc.

Combine the angles and I don’t think it’s just a random 4 week sample including a horrific weather game that makes the numbers look good. But the team has made 2 fundamental changes— 1) in their schematic desire to not just load the box and 2) in playing David Walker who has almost single-handedly elevated the pass rush.

Add it up, and while they might not be the best D in the NFL, I trust the directionality with the Bucs D being one of the best units in the NFL (how much that matters this week vs Caleb who can beat anyone is a separate question) .

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In many senses I think these are two teams similar in style and in their current forms. Both Carolina and Green Bay are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Each offense is top 5 in generating explosive plays with QBs top 5 in average depth of target. And on the defensive side of the ball, each team limits deep passes with GB allowing fewest deep attempt % and CAR not far behind in their limiting of deep throws.

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But with the emergence of Caleb Williams, this team has needed to rely less on the ground game and has leaned more into Williams. With Williams, the team has thrown 5% more than expected (adjusting for the situation), 2nd in the NFL. And there is a good reason for the change as Caleb Williams is showing the makings of a QB in the midst of a massive year 3 leap.

To understand the areas where Williams has most improved, let’s first understand his play style and what has changed year over year.

(And a quick editors note: I am using partial samples relative to full seasons worth of data, but the data looks roughly equal using randomly sampled 4 week sample points.)

Williams entered the NFL in 2024 and was immediately one of the best in the NFL at buying time after pressure arrived (X axis), extending the play for an average of ~1.4s after pressure arrived. And he was doing this primarily through scrambles, abandoning the pocket and trying to extend the play. The problem for Williams is that he wasn’t buying time to generate productive outcomes, with his pressure to sack rate close to 30%, and only 2024 Will Levis worse of any QBs in my database. And as a result of his inability to avoid sacks, Williams was 25th percentile in his grade against pressure.

But Williams was almost a one trick pony in his ability to scramble and extend. 2025 saw a massive improvement in his sack avoidance with a pressure to sack rate of 10% and his production against pressure jumping to 70th percentile. And Williams took another step in his ability to extend going to 1.7s on average and with his scramble rate increasing from 15% to 23%. And so far in 2026 Williams has been extending even more and the results are a QB with best numbers in the NFL right now under pressure. But play under pressure is generally unstable, is this just a fluke?

Not all pressure is created equal, and I’d argue Williams has developed a few key skills that, combined with his traits, will allow him to be among the game’s best in these pressure situations. Beyond his “play extension” ability to extend post pressure (often hurries) Williams has developed a new skill in his arsenal which is his ability to manipulate the pocket and move within the pocket to navigate pressure.

Williams is moving within the pocket without the scrambling that comprises most of the earlier pocket extension far more often this year (and the most in the NFL) and his efficiency doing so has skyrocketed. This leaves Williams with effectively two ways to deal with pressure either breaking the pocket to scramble and create, while also maintaining the ability to manipulate the pocket to create good throws.

Beyond more toys in the arsenal, Williams not panicking and staying within the pocket, points to a broader improvement in Williams processing and play style-- leading to better decision-making and accuracy.

Without being a one trick pony just looking to extend and go into scramble drill, Williams has allowed for more plays to develop and to be in a position to deliver balls accurately from a throwing position in the pocket. Consider the difference of a scramble drill where WRs need to break off routes and improvise as opposed to plays sticking in the pocket where they can simply finish their routes and have more time to win.

Williams is throwing into tight windows only 6% of the time, down from 14% year 1, 10% last season and is throwing to open WRs at a career high rate as well. And this play from last week perfectly illustrates the change for Williams.

Here we have this subtle play where Williams manipulates the pocket moving it to the right and then, rather than bail when pressure arrives, stays inside the pocket, steps up, and makes an accurate throw to generate huge YAC.

The result for the full season now is that his accuracy rate has skyrocketed and with more accurate throws comes more YAC and more ability to take advantage of the scheme. In past years Williams inaccuracy cost the team some huge YAC opportunities, but the game has changed this year. And the Bears are not just at league average this year but now one of the very best in the NFL generating YAC, with Williams only behind Mahomes & Allen in YAC generated. And what is perhaps most interesting about Williams’ accuracy, aside from the total number ascending, is that he has been more accurate across all areas of the field.

Whether by area or depth of the field, his accuracy has risen. The result is a far more complete player and one who has not compromised on his awesome ability to scramble and make something out of nothing, but has also developed a better pocket presence allowing him to deliver more accurate balls and for the offense to improve as a result.

And while not the focus here, the same traits of processing have also translated to play outside of pressure, where his rhythm EPA, undisturbed EPA are 85th percentile up from 60% last year.

I don’t think the play under pressure is a fluke, at least not directionally. Now, in year 3, he’s still the best in the league at breaking the pocket, but he’s added something he never had: the ability to move within it. He’s stepping up, sliding, and resetting without bailing into scramble drill, and the result is a QB and offense with a multitude of ways to win vs pressure and kept clean. QBs tend to develop and improve, and we might just be witnessing the year 3 ascension of the next great offense with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.

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Leveraging Tails

Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.

In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.

The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome. And while we can’t walk through this full process each week this should provide a window into how to build a process to beyond the logic for this game and matched with ones own opinions.

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It is funny how some weeks I’m only excited for more football to be back, and other weeks I am just counting down the minutes for TNF. Either way, we’re so blessed and tonight should be a fun matchup. (I’m running so low on time, apologies for typos and getting this out only a few hours before game time).

From a fundamentals point of view, these teams are nearly identical whether an EPA/Play chart or Earned Drive Points chart or whatever production metric of choice. Though included in that sample is a Bears offense that was without Caleb Williams for a few games, which inevitably would have them stronger on offense. And as a result, the market pricing this with the Bears as a point and a halfish better while accounting for home field makes reasonable sense with how these teams have played.

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I personally find that so much of my success betting at this point in the season relies on sifting through the data to understand the sample sizes that are the most relevant/predictive going forward. With 5-6 weeks of data, off-season priors are not yet fully shed, and we are already starting to see teams change their methods of attack and in some cases personnel changes which can make all the difference

By taking an intensive look at our data and understanding the context in which it lives we can (hopefully) stay a bit ahead of the market. This column, then, still an experiment for now (feedback appreciated) will look at some of the stats and angles I’m monitoring as I parse through the data and try to stay ahead of the market. And it should hopefully provide a window of thought into a process of digesting football data and the various applications

And to recap from last week as some are still applicable: (we had some fun with 1) Nix not running when he scrambles 2) the Panthers being legit contenders (still futures value!?) and 3) the Eagles run game and it's problems with a focus on Hurts (very sad).

Throwthedamball

Week 6 Stats & Angles

Intro Note: Football is a matchup and idiosyncratic game where teams change their behavior over the course of a season, players improve, and random results and injuries can skew outcomes that don’t necessarily reflect underlying value…

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a month ago · 12 likes · 1 comment · Judah Fortgang

Anyway, I won’t capture everything (there will prob be typos) and the structure might be different week-to-week, but it’s a start nonetheless and something to think about midweek.

KC:

It is of course obvious that Kenneth Walker has been dominant on the ground for KC. But what is perhaps more interesting is 1) how Walker is winning and 2) how that interacts with the overall offense and how that has changed from year to year for Mahomes.

We have here how often running backs have Perfect Blocks (plays with no blocking mistakes) and Yards Before Contact. In some sense, this is a decent proxy for vision and the ability to to take advantage of open holes. This is an area where Walker has been awesome this year as you see a wide gap between his placement and the trendline.

And as teams have adjusted to load the box against the Chiefs— Walker sees more box defenders than all but 2 running backs— he has maintained his ability to hit the open holes, all while leading the NFL by far in missed tackles forced.

So the running game is good and that is obviously a good in and of itself. But it has also clearly leaked into other areas of the offense making the entire offensive unit more efficient.

If we look at Mahomes through 6 weeks, we see a play action game in the 90th percentile in 2026, following 3 years (the averages are the same in the 5 game sample from these years) topping out at 60th percentile EPA in play action with the run game weaker. Now perhaps it is a coincidence and there is no causal effect, but I’ll go out on a limb here and say the improved running game, more box defenders in conflict, is contributing to a far better overall passing game.

And with ground game allowing them to stay ahead of the chains, Mahomes has also faced (by far) the fewest obvious passing situations (xpass >=75%) of any QB in the NFL, where is dominating with a 0.25 EPA/play.

Now SEA will be a hell of a test for this running game having perhaps the games best run D over the last 2 years, but the Chiefs offense has so many ways to beat you, I’m bullish on them this week and going forward.

SEA:

And speaking of SEA and run games, the opposite phenomenon has occurred for the Seahawks early this year. The run game has struggled mightily, bottom 3 in EPA, bottom in nearly any metric. The result is Darnold frequently in obvious passing situations. And where last year Darnold was seeing only a ~40% obvious passing situations, this year the number is closer to 55%.

Darnold has been unable to overcome the obvious passing spots losing close to 0.2 EPA/play, as he is more frequently under pressure (it is easier to pressure when you know a pass is coming) where he is the 2nd least productive QB.

Likewise, without the run game the play action game has suffered.

Where Darnold last year (again, same thing with same trend if we account for same length sample this year to last) was 80th percentile producing with play action, that has nearly collapsed for the offense and the overall production has tanked as a result. Until this run game can get back on track this is an offense that I think has taken a massive step back from last year and will be in trouble against opponents who can stop the run/bring pressure.

DAL:

The Cowboys defense has been miserable for the better part of the last year and a half now. Last year, this was a defense 31st in EPA/Pass and this year so far are 32nd in EPA, 30th in YPA and at the bottom of basically any pass defense metric.

But there is perhaps some reason for optimism following the Cowboys trade for Joey Porter Jr.

Porter has been tasked with a clear assignment: play press often coverage and win. So far, Porter has been dominant with the best mark preventing separation of any CB in the NFL.

From the Cowboys perspective, it of course helps to have a dominant CB lock out an opposing WR. But what elevates this is the second order effects and how Dallas can now scheme their defense.

With faith that one guy will hold up and lock up a WR, Dallas has been able to shade coverage help elsewhere. The result in 2 games with perfect coverage (plays where everyone fulfills their assignment) above 50% with the previous season high at 25% in this metric. And likewise, the defense last week was more willing to blitz last week which they did a season high 42% of the time, with a 65% percentile EPA performance against the blitz. And this is a defense that has been far better with blitzing than without.

Is the Cowboys defense all of a sudden going to be a top unit with Porter in there? No, of course not. But is it possible for them to improve out of the basement in pass defense? Absolutely. And don’t be too shocked to see the defense improve ever so slightly…. which might make all the difference in a very winnable NFC East.

SF

Some of this is part anecdotal, some of it more data driven, but the 49ers offense has operated entirely different this year moving more away from the YAC guys and leaning into Purdy→ Evans more contested catches in key situations.

Where this is most obvious is on late downs:

To the Niners credit, they haven’t seen very many 3rd and longs this year, but when they have they’re converting them at an outrageous clip. Where is the production coming from?

Well it is Mike Evans. He has an outrageous 45% target rate on late downs and is somehow converting (from that large a sample) nearly 70% of the targets. Without Mike Evans for the next bit, the team will need to find a new weapon to convert— and with the injuries in SF, there aren’t too many possible answers.

But what is perhaps most interesting to me and something I’ll be monitoring, is that without Mr reliable— throw-descievely-in-Evans-direction-and-let-him-make-a-play, Purdy took his some more sacks in the second half of MNF. Where they have been so good staying ahead of the chains, avoiding 3rd and longs etc, I would think, without Evans, the sack rate is going to pop up a bit and Purdy will be a bit less decisive. The offense should still be great (and the defense is a topic for another time as a legit unit) but I think the team takes a bit of a step back without Evans and regresses over the next few weeks, especially on late downs.

That’s all for now! If I have some tails thoughts for tomorrow, I’ll be back in this space, if not will be back with gameplan at the regularly scheduled time. As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about throwthedamball!

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Leveraging Tails

Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.

In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.

The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome. And while we can’t walk through this full process each week this should provide some window of through to build a process beyond the logic for this game and matched with ones own opinions.

Trades: NYG alts (-2.5/-5.5 etc)

Let us begin as always looking to the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.

Here we have a chart of teams EPA/Play— and while not dispositive, this paints the picture of a Giants team that has been better on both offense and defense early in the season. (Choose your overall efficiency stat of preference). Of course 1 week of this Giants is sample is with Dart in which they played their best game. But from a production point of view this is a Giants team that has outperformed the Saints in most overall metrics.

But the market is not buying the Giants production having them as the ~30th best team according to estimates from Inpredictable, which uses current market and lookahead lines to determine team ratings. This same indicator has the Saints as the 23rd best team.

The result is a Giants team that, despite being at home, is a slight underdog to the Saints despite the fundamental performances suggesting a different story. But of course, we don’t simply bet on an EPA/play chart and there are matchup angles to dissect here that lead me to the Giants tails in particular.

Matchup looks:

The Giants defense has turned into one of the blitz heaviest units in the NFL over the last few weeks of the season following some early defensive struggles.

In the last 2 weeks the Giants have blitzed close to 60% of the time, and the result has been a pressure rate for the defense close to 35%. Now they get a QB in Tyler Shough who has struggled against the blitz.

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But as we outlined in our Stats & Angles note, the Broncos offense has not been performing like the average offense the market is implying, but a far worse unit.

The Broncos are 6th (worst) in Series Success Rate, have the 3rd highest 3 and out rate, and are bottom 10 EPA/Success Rate, you get the idea. And rather than simply re-state the argument there, there are reasons to think with a major play style change from Nix and his lack of scramble running, there are some fundamental issues which suggest these 5 weeks bear signal onto what this offense will be.

And the one saving grace for this Broncos offense has been a run game that has at least been league average from a EPA/SR perspective.

But they now get a Seattle defense that for 2 years running has been dominant against the run with the 2nd best EPA per Rush and 3rd best SR allowed stopping the run. And this compounds the problem for the Broncos— as the long fields and obvious passing situations (which make it easier for a defense to pressure and play good coverage) further reinforce the need for Nix to create which is the exact area he is majorly struggling now relative to past years.

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I personally find that so much of my success betting at this point in the season relies on sifting through the data to understand the sample sizes that are the most relevant/predictive going forward. With 4-5 weeks of data, off-season priors are not yet fully shed, and we are already starting to see teams change their methods of attack.

By taking an intensive look at our data and understanding the context in which it lives we can (hopefully) stay a bit ahead of the market. This column, then, an experiment for now, feedback appreciated, will look at some of the stats and angles I’m monitoring as I parse through the data and try to stay ahead of the market.

I won’t capture everything (there will prob be typos) and the structure and style is all in flux, but it’s a start nonetheless and something to think about midweek.

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Tails Thoughts:

ATL:

• I’m somewhat tempted to write another Leveraging Tails column here for the Falcons, but we’ll go with shorter bullets instead. It’s a small sample of course, but the offense with Penix has been dominant the last 2 games with an outrageous 85% Series Success Rate and atop most offensive categories (and not against complete train-wreck defenses, though NO might be real bad as we’ll discuss) including #1 in EPA/Play and #1 in Success Rate. Those are rarely accidental dominant 2 week stretches and even if they can’t keep up that pace of best in the NFL there’s likely some directional signal here.

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