Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.

Or a look here at 2025 EPA/Play on offense and defense.

Looking at this division from EPA and EDP standpoints, we have a dominant Seahawks defense and average offense, with an all around dominant Rams team. The 49ers offense was once again terrific, but its defense, decimated by injury, was a bottom unit. And the Cardinals were below average on both sides and worse without Kyler Murray who missed the second half of the season.

And unlike most of the other NFC divisions, this one had relatively little turnover with a Cardinals team in tank mode and mostly returning coaches/QB combos. But let’s dive into the framing of what should be a grueling divisional battle.

Rams:

Central Q: Can Rams run back the 2025 script?

I think the framing and expectations is essential in breaking down the this Rams team. This is a Rams team power rated to be the very best in the NFL (double next team in SB odds despite the division) and by all accounts they should be a dominant team. But the lens by which we are basing the analysis is with an expectation of the Rams as the league’s juggernaut.

Now if we were to use the 2025 data as main anchor that would make sense. This was a dominant Rams offense. And high level looking at Stafford he had one of the better QB seasons of the last 5 years.

Stafford here was firmly in the top right here with his grading and EPA in 2025.

But also relevant is where it falls relative to some of Stafford’s other seasons. 2021 saw a similar EPA year for Stafford as the team won its first Super Bowl. The 2022-2024 years did not come close to the 2021 year (until 2025). And with a QB, coach, and similar supporting casts we have strong data and priors that it is fair to suggest that not too much changed from year to year from an underlying point of view. Rather, this was a team that in my view ran pretty hot in 2025. And if we simulated the season 10K times this one was like 90th+ percentile good (and the 2021-2024 years are a decent sample of the distribution of what else is in the cards). Given the small samples of football and randomness it is unlikely for any team to be able to keep up with the pace set by this offense, let alone a team where we’ve seen the ceiling before and other (still good) years within the distribution.

The natural question to ask is whether something changed from a play style or approach from Stafford year to year. On average Stafford threw the ball further (9 ADOT from 7.5 last 2 years and 6.6 year before) and naturally had a higher Deep Attempt % than previous season. And while Stafford had a terrific year throwing deep, it was not his best nor that different from his 2023 season in deep production. It was non deep throws where Stafford gained most relative to past seasons. Stafford set a low in sack avoidance and in particular he was dominant on screen plays which generated 0.23 EPA/Play following 4 straight years of negative EPA on screens. Did Stafford all of a sudden improve his sack rate from career average or did he run good on a small sample of plays? McVay figure something out in the screen game? Maybe. Is it likely a combination of that and randomness? I think so-- and that’s the exact sort of framing I can’t escape in thinking about the Rams.

This is a Rams offense in particular that is very fragile. The team will be starting a 38 year old QB with a major chronic back problem-- there’s a world of probability the wheels fall off there or he cannot stay healthy. All world WR Puca Nacua missed only one game last season and Davante Adams is almost 34. And behind them? This is one of weaker WR groups with Mumfield, Xavier Smith, Jordan Whittington struggling to earn their keep and 6th round rookie CJ Daniels expected to get some major work in the slot. Can McVay elevate this offense? Of course. Are there major problems if Nacua or Adams miss time? Absolutely.

What perhaps might counteract the Rams offense, is a defense that looks like an absolute wagon.

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Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.

This was a NFC South with four below average efficiency teams with the Falcons and Bucs right at league average and the Panthers a tier behind and much worse on defense. The Saints defense was well above average and struggled offensively-- though that number includes half a season with Spencer Rattler at QB.

TB:

Central Q: Can Baker Return to his 2024 form?

Baker Mayfield heads into his 4th season in Tampa with his 4th different offensive play caller. And Mayfield has had varying degrees of success in his 3 years in Tampa.

Mayfield was sitting right around average in 2023 (70th percentile EPA, 50th PFF Grade) and a bit below average in 2025 (48th and 40th) following a terrific 2024 which saw him as one of the better QBs of the season (93rd and 85th percentiles). Now in 2024, as we highlighted last year in this space, Baker had one of the best ever season on productions on screens that was very unlikely to sustain itself in 2025, especially without Liam Coen. And while regression in certain areas was bound to happen, I don’t think that tells the full story for Baker Mayfield from 2025.

If we look at his season in varying stats we see a sharp cut off right around week 6 when Baker Mayfield injured his biceps and throwing arm.

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Let’s take a quick look at how these teams performed in EPA/play to set a rough baseline of fundamental analysis.

Of course, EPA is not dispositive of any success or lack thereof— but it roughly paints the picture here of a division with 3 good teams and a Vikings defense that was terrific but really struggled on offense marred by injury and JJM’s poor play. There is a reason all 4 teams have win totals at or above 500— this is a division which should be great. Let’s dive in.

Bears:

Q: Can the Offense Progress beyond potential defensive regression?

Williams took a massive step forward from year 1 to year 2, most notably in his ability to evade sacks. Williams went from a disastrous 9.7% sack rate on 26.3% pressure to sack in year 1, to a terrific 10.1% pressure to sack rate and 3.7% sack rate in year 2.

Now Williams style didn’t change much as he was already a terrific extender in year 1. But buying time alone is not enough. Buying time for sacks does the offense little good-- buying time to be able to create and evade sacks is where Williams went from well below to well above league average. And that as a whole, the skill improvement, led to massive improvements out of structure.

As the season wore along Williams settled into producing at a 75th percentile EPA and Yards Per Dropback clip, seeing massive improvements in his create rate and his deep accuracy. The deep game went from an area that was a major weakness—losing 5 points in total in his rookie season— to an area where Williams added 42 total points on nearly 0.42 points per play.

But the biggest jump perhaps was how well Williams was able to produce in system under Ben Johnson. Williams improved in his grade in system (throws to his first read and without a disruptive event), but despite being at league average in his PFF system grade--he produced far beyond that in his EPA at 6th best in the NFL. And that 0.25 EPA/Play number in system is a bit below where Jared Goff had been in each of the previous 2 years, suggesting a heavy Ben Johnson influence unlikely to go away.

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Of course, life was also far easier for Williams with a run game under Johnson that was 2nd in Rush Success Rate and 6th in EPA/Play. Williams was in obvious passing situations on nearly 61% of play in his rookie season, compared to 47% in his sophomore year. Life under Johnson is far easier for a QB and I think that should remain sticky heading into 2026.

And it only helped in the second half of the season Luther Burden and Colston Loveland took on full time roles, both of whom were the leaders in YPRR for the offense. This is an offense that should be terrific and if Williams takes another leap from year 2 to year 3 especially in his ability to play in system, this is an offense with as elite a ceiling as any other in the NFL.

The problem for the Bears is a defense, that, excluding turnovers, was one of the very worst in the NFL.

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Eagles

Central Q: Can the Eagles survive another offensive change and this time without AJB?

Jalen Hurts once again has another offensive coordinator with Sean Mannion taking over as offensive coordinator. Of course, Mannion is somewhat of an unknown and there is a world of possibility he is the next great coordinator coming from the Lefleur tree. But that world of possibility is still small and while it does increase the range of outcomes, we still have plenty of data from Hurts to build a case around.

Hurts had his worst marks as full time starter across multiple categories including PFF Grade and EPA.But what is perhaps most troubling about those numbers is the play style difference which enabled that.

Hurts is at his best extending plays and creating with longer pockets.

And while Hurts took fewer sacks in 2025, it also meant he was extending the play less. His ability to generate EPA out of system tanked as well, posting his lowest EPA out of system as a pro, losing -0.12 EPA per play. (we can define plays in system where a QB goes to his first trad and where the defense does not move him off his reads). And this has been an area where Hurts has excelled, and one that is less scheme dependent, as it happens after the play breaks down.

Hurts scramble run rate is on a continual decline, and if Hurts is no longer the player who can extend, he will need to reinvent himself as a different player— one whose play style we have yet to really see succeed in the NFL.

Making matters worse for Hurts is that the team traded AJ Brown, who has been such a dominant receiver for Hurts. Since arriving, AJ Brown in man coverage— where receiver talent shines through—accounts for nearly a third of Hurts total EPA generated despite being only 8% of Hurts total dropbacks.

The Eagles will need to rely on DeVonta Smith who has been terrific himself to win against man coverage. But life will be far more difficult without AJB soaking up the attention on the other side and with safety help cueing in on Brown.

Likewise, Hurts entirely relied on the deep pass for his success last season, generating a career high 50 EPA on deep passes (0.64/EPA Play), but his non deep passes lost nearly 12.5 points. For context, Hurts was 39.5 on deep throws and 44 EPA on non deep throws in 2024. This alone is a worrying sign for a QB in Hurts. But compounded with a player who has seemingly gotten weaker in his mobility both as a runner and extender, that they lost their #1 deep threat in Brown and there are some worrying signs for the Eagles offense.

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And as a reminder, I will be freezing all paid subs, there is no need to unsubscribe and staying subscribed will lock you into your price point (without being charged for the non writing months). Let’s get into the games.

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Podcasts:

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CAR-TB:

As we’ve been writing about for weeks this is TB defense that is extremely vulnerable to the pass, one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL while being bottom 5 in YPD, not far behind in EPA/Pass and many other pass defense metrics. And even the run defense has been less dominant over the second half of the season below average in Success Rate and Rush EPA over the second half. The result has been the Bucs facing more passing adjusting for situation than any other team in the NFL.

Now I think the main question for this game is how each team chooses to attack.

The Panthers have been a low play volume team with only one game above 10% Pass Above Expected. Should they come out throwing the Bryce Young alts and Panthers builds are intriguing given the matchup. And the Bucs top 10 single coverage, top 5 blitz rate plays nicely into Jalen Coker who leads the team in YPRR against single coverage. But more likely is the same gamplean for the Panthers of trying to play very slow, while having decent success running the ball.

On the flipside, the Bucs have been at the extremes of pass rate over the past few weeks switching off weeks of 10%+ pass over expected. And while the Panthers pass defense has been middle of the pack EPA wise, that has been a large function of a team forcing a huge turnover rate (nearly 20% of opponent drives are ending in turnovers).

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We’ll cover the games for Thursday here in bullet point style, with an emphasis on the tails spots.

As always, the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts and bets. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!

DAL-WAS:

• The matchup to me with the lowest variance here is the Cowboys offense against the Commanders defense. By any available metric on either side this is a top 5 Cowboys offense going up against a bottom 3 Commanders defense. And with injuries piling up to Washington defense— there is not a single player outside of Bobby Wagner with above a 55 PFF grade. The Cowboys, run and pass, should have success here. The question, I think is can the Commanders keep up.

• On the one hand, the Cowboys defense has been atrocious all season—and especially in pass defense and in recent weeks where they are last in the league since week 11 allowing EPA/Play and 7.6 Yards Per Dropback. And with Quinnen Williams likely back— PFF’s #1 run graded defender— this is a run defense that should play to the top 10 quality as they’ve been in nearly every category with him healthy.

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• And where the DAL D’ has been salvageable is the pass rush which is top 10 in quick pressure, disruption pressure since Williams arrived. And with Laremy Tunsil out with an oblique injury, the team will have Brandon Coleman and his 49.6 PFF Pass Block Grade, leaving a key weak link for a pass blocking unit 6th highest in Perfect Block Rate and with the 7th best O-line grade as a whole. The Cowboys defense has a path towards success here with the pass rush against a banged up offensive line, and of course, with Josh Johnson at QB… there is a reason he’s been a career journeyman.

• I think mostly likely outcome is a Cowboys romp and a game-state where the pass rush can cause problems, but I will also play the dart of Johnson able to mitigate the pass rush and pick apart this Cowboys defense that has been incapable of stopping anyone. The sample with Johnson is old and tiny— but the case for is that his create rate would rank towards the top of the league and his low sack rate and ability to extend plays unlocks the path to beat this Cowboys defense. Still with McLaurin, Samuel, and even Burks downfield for a Kingsbury offense that had Mariota throwing with the deepest ADOT in the NFL and there are paths to some passing upside as well. Priced extremely, negatively correlated my favorite angle is a Johnson passing yards with Cowboys spread/alts.

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As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!

Tails Angles:

Going to go quick hitter style today.

MIN:

• JJM has been dreadful all season but the last 2 weeks have been a revelation for him, with 95%ile PFF grades and averaging 0.46 EPA/Play in each of the last 2 games both elite marks.

• Now he gets a NYG defense 4th worst in pass EPA over the second half of the season, while allowing the 3rd highest deep attempt %— where JJM has done most of his damage. In a spot with conflicting long term and short data points—thus leading to a price anchored more to the season long— playing the tail of the short term ones while getting a terrific matchup is an appealing tails spot both for MIN and for JJM builds as well as SGPs of both.

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As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!

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As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos, life in the way delaying this a bit and wanted to get this out ASAP!

Tails Angles:

NO:

• Very similar to our angle for the Cardinals last week, this is a TB team that has very different numbers in recent weeks than for the full season. Baker Mayfield has not been the same QB since getting hurt midway through the season, as he has not had a positive EPA/Play game now since Week 6 against the Niners.

• And the defense has been struggling as well, allowing 7.6 Yards Per Dropback over the last 5 weeks, 2nd worst in the NFL and nearly 0.5 yards per play worse than 3rd place team. This is a team on both sides of the ball whose full season numbers has not matched the current iteration of this team, and 8 points separating these teams is far too much in my view when accounting for where each team currently sits.

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A note here about the goal of this series: As many of you know, I started betting as a result of the research I was doing as a football nerd working on some data projects. I developed stats that helped me understand the game better than anything I found publicly available, and then tested my theories through betting based on my research.

That background still shapes how I think about the game and my bets and trades — always looking to understand what the market is pricing in and what information is lacking.

The market is sharp, of course, but it is not without leaks and holes. Football is a complex game with limited data and 22 people interacting simultaneously on the field. Sifting through the noise and studying those interactions appropriately can yield massive rewards. That is, even if everyone has access to the same stats and information, that doesn’t mean everyone will interpret them or manipulate them the same way.

This series will look at some of the data I’ve generated and referenced throughout this newsletter. Because I regularly cite these stats in my analysis, this series will eventually become a glossary worth revisiting to better understand my weekly analyses.

Truth be told, however, that is only a part of the goal here.

What I hope to do in this series is provide a window from 0-1 of how I take football information, fulfill the football-nerd-in-me’s desire to understand the game better, and then apply that to betting in the game theory context of a marketplace.

And like anything we do at Throwthedamball, at a high level, the goal is to provide a process that you can ingest on your own and apply it to how you think and understand (and trade) on the game we all love.

Create Rate:

Create Rate measures the process by which a QB succeeds when facing a disruptive situation.

A disruptive situation here is defined as:

1. plays when pressure comes so quickly that a QB has to abandon his read to avoid pressure

   AND/OR

2. plays in which every coverage defender is guarding their man well (disruption will be its own post).

Most QB stats focus on post-facto results, like TDs or INTs. However, these metrics do not sufficiently filter out the noise that emerges from looking solely at post-facto results. Things like the randomness a QB can’t control, such as a dropped pass leading to an interception. These stats are inefficient ways of measuring a QBs success (or likelihood of future success).

Create Rate instead captures the process by which a QB attacks—and his rate of success—disruption. And like most process metrics, this is a more indicative and repeatable way to predict outcomes in future disruptive situations.

What is the definition?

Create Rate captures how often a QB throws an accurate pass to a receiver/”throws open” a receiver, OR scrambles for positive expectancy (a result they have the most control over) in disruptive situations.

What is perhaps more interesting than the simple predictive value is what create rate teaches us about the nature of a QB's skills and play styles, and the trade-offs and multiple ways that that player can succeed.

Football is a game of trade-offs. Consider obvious examples like a QB holding onto the ball for a long time in the pocket. It is neither good nor bad but rather a trade-off. In this case, high time-to-throw (TTT) increases the likelihood of a sack, while also increasing the likelihood that a receiver gets open with more time to run his route.

Evaluating that trade-off is tied to an understanding of play style— Patrick Mahomes will have an easier time buying time for himself than Matthew Stafford will. Every QB always needs to optimize the trade-off given the particular situation, whether that be constraints on skill and/or the matchup they face.

This leads us to our chart here on Create Rate and how it helps us understand QB play more broadly.

On the Y axis we have our create stat we defined above. What this chart captures on the X axis “Pocket Extension,” is how long a QB, on average, extends plays once pressure arrives in disruptive situations.

One would assume that this is the easiest path to the ability to create. And they would be right in so far as there is a clear linear relationship between the ability to extend plays and the ability to create.

But simply extending plays is not dispositive of success—a QB still needs to execute a good throw and/or have the scrambling ability to succeed. Perhaps more to the point, this chart reveals the different ways a QB can succeed and create from within the situation.

Case Studies: Dak and Mahomes

Let’s use Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes as examples. In the above chart, Prescott stands out in his ability to create, while ranking on the shorter end of Pocket Extensions among NFL QBs. On the other hand, Mahomes extends plays well past league average. Both Create at high levels, but they win in different ways.

Dak’s ability to Create lies in his ability to deliver an accurate ball to a receiver who wasn’t otherwise open, as illustrated in the chart below.

This chart shows how often a QB throws into a tight window and, on those throws, how accurate the passes are. In effect, the accurate ball diminishes the tight window and thereby “throws the receiver open.” Dak is league-best in tight window throws and, therefore, unsurprisingly, attempts them quite often.

Here is an example clip (my video editing skills aren’t great, deal with itttt):

The coverage on this play is tight across the board, and Prescott here creates by engineering a near-perfect throw (despite Pickens not making the play).

Here’s where trade-offs come in: Dak has the skill to make these throws and, therefore, can make the trade-off to not scramble because he has this skill in his bag. If a QB like Justin Fields were to attempt most of these throws, the results would likely be very different. That is why Fields opts for a different approach to creating.

Meanwhile, Mahomes’s ability to create is a much different style. Mahomes is elite at extending plays and subsequently creating open windows by virtue of the play extension.

Consider this example from earlier in the season where Mahomes anticipates the rush and maneuvers the pocket, forcing the linebacker into a conflict and creating an open window for a first down. His creation lies in his manipulation of the pocket and his ability to engineer throws to receivers not previously open.

The football nerd in me finds this interesting on its own in understanding how the game works and how players execute trade-offs to win in particular situations.

The researcher/trader in me also sees this as a spot to understand the interaction: How might a Mahomes-style of creation interact with a particular matchup relative to a Prescott-style of creating?

1. The Prescotts of the world can win against good coverage, mitigating those teams that win on defense via their coverage.

   For Prescott, a matchup, say, with the Eagles defense, who are among the league’s best at preventing separation, is far less daunting. That isn’t to say Prescott would be guaranteed to carve them up, just that the base rate of the Eagles secondary is mitigated slightly in this matchup interaction. We saw this in action in Week 12 when Dak lit up the Eagles D for 354 yards and 2 passing TDs (+ 1 rushing TD). I wrote about it before the game in my weekly gameplan here.

2. For the Mahomeses of the world, this play-style neutralizes pass rush as well as coverage, though the effect on each is less pronounced.

   For Mahomes, a matchup with a team like the Steelers is perhaps the ideal spot for this matchup effect. The Steelers generate so much of their defensive efficiency via the pass tush and generating quick pressure. But Mahomes’ ability to scramble out and Create leaves the rest of the defense exposed for Mahomes to take advantage.

Of course, each is a spectrum, and the style of play also interacts with how good a player is at the Creating skill.

As always, there is more to say and more research to do, which is part of the fun in analytics and interacting in a marketplace. For now, this hopefully gives a taste of the process of data and provides some quantification of a skill we all notice when watching the games.

Questions/Comments/Feedback always appreciated, and we’ll be back in the inbox with more in this series as well as the regular Betting Gameplan.

As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos wanted to get this out ASAP!

Tails Angles:

TEN:

• As we’ve talked about for years, it takes time for QBs to develop and even within season rookie QBs tend to improve as they become more comfortable.

• And this has been the case for Cam Ward who has posted positive EPA games in 3 of his last 4, including the last two against the dominant Seattle and Houston defenses. There is good evidence to suggest Ward is improving and a much easier matchup could yield some serious dividends. And in terms of volume, following a very run heavy start, the Titans have been passing over expectation each of the last 3 weeks.

• We’ve been selling this Jaguars defense now for a number of weeks, and they are likely to be without Travon Walker in this one, for a defense that has generated most of its value from a 45% pressure rate that is 5th in the NFL. And this a classic pass funnell defense in Jacksonville with the biggest gap in Success Rate between running and passing and teams have passed against Jacksonville relative to expectation more than any team in the NFL. There is a clear path to volume and efficiency for Ward with the market, I think, not properly indexing on his last few games which carry far more signal in my view than the earlier season games, given his point in his career and what we know about QB development.

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DET-GB:

• The Lions offense has changed in their offensive identity with Dan Campbell now calling the plays the last 3 weeks, moving from a ~-6 pass rate over expected team to one that has been passing more than expectation each of the last 3 weeks.

• The Packers defense has been a bottom 10 man team all season that has not blitzed much at all.

• Goff this year has been better against these zones than he has been in man, but has struggled to defeat perfect coverage which the Packers have generated at the highest rate in the NFL over the last 6 weeks.

• And the Packers have played a huge amount of two high coverage this season, where the injury to Sam Laporta looms large as he was leading the team in YPRR and 2nd in targets per route at 23%, (behind ASRB at 32%). And no other Lions receiver now has come close to that target rate against two-high with Jamo and Tesla last on the team with a 12% and 2% target rate against the coverages respectively. The team will likely need Gibbs and ASRB to carry the load if they want to have some passing success.

• Relative to base rates of a Packers defense that is 6th best in Yards Per Dropback, 9th in EPA/Play over the last 6 weeks, and a Lions offense that has dominated weaker opponents but struggled against some of the formidable ones.

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Tails Angles:

NYJ:

• Different QB but this is still a spot where I’m seeing some value on the tails. Baltimore has been one of the highest single coverage defenses in the NFL where the Jets very sneakily have 3 85th percentile or better separators in John Metchie, AD Mitchell, and Isaiah WIlliams.

• And this is a Ravens defense that is without any CBs above average in separation prevented.

• As for Tyrod Taylor, courtesy of this graph from , we see that Tyrod Taylor has been one of the most aggressive QBs throwing downfield and has done so at a decent rate of accuracy—something Fields was not capable of delivering. With a couple of deep shots to some WRs who should be open, there is a decent chance for some passing volume and yardage for Taylor and the Jets.

• And on the Ravens side, since coming back from Injury Lamar Jackson’s scramble rate is down from 27% to only 17% and his sack rate has ballooned to 10% this season. And while we should of course have a strong prior on Jackson being a terrific QB, the market is pricing him as fully his best self when the data simply does not back that up. For the season Jackson is 16th in EPA, 31st in PFF Grade, while taking sacks at the highest rate in the NFL. His accuracy is the lowest it has been in his career, and has set career lows in virtually all categories.

• While the Ravens are of course likely to still win, put these 2 together and I think there is some value on the Jets alts especially if the Ravens offensive struggles continue even in a good matchup— 13.5 is a lot of points and pricing in a Baltimore team that has not played to the billing so far this season.

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