2022 Week 10 Reflections
Deep Dive Into Live Betting MNF
Welcome (back) to Throwthedamball!
If this is your first time reflecting with us, I'd recommend first reading the inaugural piece of this series to get a sense of what I'm trying to do in this space.
Live Betting Process:
Instead of recapping the betting process for pre game bets, I wanted to mix it up this week and walk through my live betting process for the MNF game. Why? B/c I nailed it. Kidding, kidding. I think the process is revealing—both to myself and you guys who for some reason read my rants— about how I approach and think about live betting.
Bet #1: WFT +10.5 +170 after Eagles 1st TD:
I had a slight lean coming into this game on the WFT(yes, they’re still the Football Team to me) at +10.5 point spread. But I wasn’t going to pay the -110 on only a slight lean. If the Eagles went up early, I knew this line would move aggressively in their favor and I could buy at a far more attractive price.
Once the Eagles recovered a quick fumble and scored a TD the line aggressively jumped out to Eagles -17.5. But there was no real information on how this game was going to play out and the price jump was simply on account of a turnover (which seemed noisy and could even out over game). I could now grab the initial line—which is likely more efficient than any other line posted— and could so at a far more attractive +170 price.
Process: Coming in with a pregame plan and executing is 🤌🤌🤌 .
Bet #2: WFT ML +800 after Eagles jump out to 14-7 lead
This was almost an extension of the same logic as the first bet. The line had moved aggressively in the Eagles favor with the ML odds doubling from the pre-game odds despite a well executed WFT drive to end the 1st Q. Again, there was little information to suggest this line move was justified and if anything, a main pre-game fear of mine was that I saw a potential game scenario in which the Eagles totally romped the Football Team from start to finish.
But the WFT gameplan had me convinced that game script was quite unlikely. The Football Team was going to play the same game as the Texans tried a week and a half prior by trying to shorten the game by running on an Eagles front missing Jordan Davis. The Eagles would respond by bringing in the Safeties, and unlike the Texans, WFT has the receivers to win in 1-on-1 coverage. If WFT was going to win this game, this was the gameplan to do it. Fewer drives increase the chances of variance as the better team has fewer opportunities to express that talent differential.
Aside from learning Washington’s plan of attack, it was also noteworthy that the variance in the game had already evened out. The Eagles were able to score their first TD only because of a bad DPI call that would have otherwise forced a punt. It wasn’t as if the Eagles were moving the ball at will and tearing the Washington D to shreds. And it didn’t hurt AJ Brown clearly hobbled off and would likely not be 100% the rest of the night.
Process: The market had doubled down on its conviction for PHI and I didn’t see good reason for it. I grabbed the +800 to either sell off in a closer game script, or to let ride on what I thought was good value
Bet #3: WFT -10.5+575: Placed midway through the third quarter WFT up 20-14 and driving.
I placed this one with about 7 minutes left in the third quarter as WFT had the ball deep in PHI territory. The market was still clinging to the Eagles despite their having done basically nothing offensively outside of the DPI call which saved their 2nd drive. And the above thesis was playing out exactly. WFT had multiple long drives milking the clock and introducing more variance on that account. Covering this line did not require that much to go right. The team needed to gain 40 yds to score a TD and this line would move quickly in my favor and the game script would look drastically different. (And with another stop and a 27-14 lead, the line will abandon pre-game priors and I’d be generating huge value). We also didn’t know how efficient the Eagles offense would be while in catchup mode, adding another layer of uncertainty.
But ultimately this was about my thesis for the gameflow playing out and there was not that much needed to go right to cash out on a huge odds bet…. and boy did I get lucky cashing out this one!
Notes From Around The League:
MNF was a great reminder of the role that turnovers play in determining wins and losses. I wanted to check out which teams are most benefiting and which were most harmed via the turnover.
The chart confirms that the Eagles have been on the right side of turnover variance losing few and generating many. Is this stable? I’m not so sure. The Cardinals, too, with their numerous Pick-6’s already have gotten quite lucky. And the team is on outside looking in despite this breaking their way…. yikes.
The Giants have gotten lucky on the turnovers, but as we highlighted a few weeks back, Jones has done a much better job avoiding sacks and is top 10 avoiding negative plays(A PFF stable metric). There might be some stickiness within this year to the lack of Giants turnovers.
From turnovers to moving the ball…. here is how well each team has moved the ball over the last 4 weeks of the NFL season.
TB: Despite the Bucs winning their past 2, I’m still selling the team. They’re still not playing well!!
Cowboys: With Dak back at the helm, this Cowboys team looks awfully similar to previous years. The OL has held up despite the offseason changes and while the team lacks depth at WR , that likely means more targets for Ceedee Lamb. So long as he’s healthy, targets to Lamb is a recipe for a successful offense. The team is toast with a few injuries, but the ceiling is in tact if everything goes right.
DAAAA Bears: Since changing their offense following the “mini bye,” the Bears offense has been absolutely electric and there’s good reason to think its sticky. Spoiler: they are my favorite bet of the weekend!
MIA: These last 4 weeks suggest the early Tua success was no fluke. This team is certainly matchup driven and they lack depth(if Hill/Waddle go down that could be trouble) but when all the pieces are clicking and with McDaniel at the head, the Dolphins can make a run at the Lombardi.
Note:
I’ve received numerous suggestions to start using this substack as a ListServe compiling any media appearances of mine. I hope I won’t be flooding your inbox—but stay tuned for a few weekly emails with enclosures to all articles/streams/podcasts that. Appreciate, as always, all the support!
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