2022 Week 13: Sunday Gameplan
Happy Sunday everyone!
We’re so blessed to have another great week of football on our hands. Come watch and live bet games with us today—mostly to make fun of me, but also so that you can pitch some trade ideas for us all to profit!
If this isn’t peak living life I’m not sure what is 🤷♂️
In this note we will hit on MISC bets, and will go through some process for SGP’s and a live betting gameplan!
IYCMI:
I wrote in Leveraging Tails this week about why I’m on the Dolphins in this spot against the 49ers. Another angle to attack with juicer odds—and one I will be playing on FD:
1) Tua 300 Passing Yds+MIA -5.5(+1183)
2) Sprinkling Tua 300 Passing Yds + MIA -9.5(+2104).
Slightly different stories and but they all emerge from the same thesis discussed in Leveraging Tails.
I also wanted to quickly pitch another trade idea:
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags have been fine against Zone coverage, but he and the Jaguars are #1 in EPA against man coverage. Oh and the Lions play man 45% of the time, 3rd most in the NFL.
And as Tej Seth illustrated the Jags have the biggest EPA advantage on passing side even before accounting for the man vs zone angle.
How am I looking to capitalize?
Lawrence O 225+Jags -2.5(+255 on DK)
Lawrence 300/325 Yds & Jags-5.5(+1044/1961 on FD).
SGP’s:
Story: Dolphins passing game explodes vs SF.
We talked in Leveraging Tails this week, about reasons to buy elite(yes elite) offenses against great defenses and this SGP represents another way to capitalize on that angle.
The Niners have played zone on close to 80% of their defensive snaps, an area in which both Jalyen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have feasted all season– especially in their ability to generate explosive plays.
The Niners have allowed by far the fewest Yards Per Carry(YPC) to RB’s allowing only 3.2 YPC. The Dolphins will pass and we know those passes will go to Hill and Waddle. We’re running back our go-to-SGP from this season once more.
Build: on FD(+9220)/(20522)
Waddle 100 Yds Rec
Hill 100 yds Rec(150 for the 205:1 bet)
Tua 350 Passing yds
Dolphins -5.5
Story: Mike White mania continues for one more week against struggling Min D
After playing to a league average defense in the first half of the season, the Vikings defense has really struggled over the last 6 games or so.
It is not the run defense responsible for this fall, (Rush D EPA has improved from 9th to 7th best) but is the pass defense struggling and dragging down the defense. They have allowed the third most attempts in this span(since their bye) and have allowed 300+ yds to 4 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced.
Garett Wilson should be the beneficiary of a high volume offense. Choose your metric and Wilson has shined, but one that stands out is Wilson with the 3rd best PFF separation grade, suggesting his underlying performance has been elite but the QB play has held him back.
Though a small sample, Wilson was around a 30% target share with Mike White–in line with his target share for non Zach Wilson games. Look for White to lean to his stud WR if they are to take advantage of this poor Vikings Defense.
Build on FD +2708
Mike White 300 Passing Yds
Garrett Wilson 100 Yds +TD
NYJ ML
Story: Big passing day leads Eagles to victory.
We spoke in Leveraging Tails last week about the pass funnel nature of the Titans defense which invites teams to throw against them more than any other team. As such, teams throw over expected against them more than any other opponent.
The Eagles run-pass ratios are not fixed by week but vary depending on the matchup. Given the matchup, then, this should be a spot where the Eagles turn to the air.
On sheer volume alone, the Titans are allowing a second to league worst 267 passing yards.
Not only is this a spot where volume should be on the Eagles side, but TEN blitzes only 15% of the time, lowest in the NFL. When not blitzed, Hurts has been among the NFL’s best passers.
If the Eagles turn to the air here that likely means Sanders will have less opportunity and will likely fall short of his season long rushing average--which his current rushing prop reflects.
FD +1860
Jalen Hurts 300+ Yards Passing
Miles Sanders Under 56.5 Rushing
Philadelphia Eagles ML
Live Betting
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TEN vs PHI:
With a healthy Ryan Tannehill, the Titans have consistently been better on script than off, and no team has a bigger delta between their scripted plays and off script plays than the Titans.
Of course, should the Titans jump out to a lead and should the line move closer to a pk, the Eagles ML and moving the line to the original spread is an attractive bet.
Aside from the scripted angle, Jalen Hurts rushing props is an attractive live betting option as his prop 49.5 is priced for his season long average.
Hurts’s rushing production has largely been a function of how many designed rushes the Eagles run for Hurts. In Weeks 6-10 Hurts had an average of 5 designed rushes and he averaged only 22 yards a game. But in the past 2 weeks, Hurts has averaged 13 design rushes for 121 yards a game.
Rather than guess before the game whether the Eagles will run Hurts as part of the gameplan, we can look to see whether he is getting designed runs early and bet accordingly.
Gameplan: Bet Eagles ML/-5.5 at +money if Titans jump out to early lead after first few drives, and bet Hurts Rushing yards over/under depending on if they give him early designed runs.
CIN vs KC:
Play the volatility: A game with two great offenses, means lots of scoring and lots of volatility– key alpha to generating live betting value. When there is high volatility, there are big price swings, and one can oftentimes — especially when planning in advance — book a middle (both sides of a bet cashing), or at the very least get both sides of a bet at +money for a guaranteed profit.
And if either of these teams go down and find themselves in heavy passing situations, that is all the more reason to back the trailing team, as both Mahomes and Burrow have lit up opposing defenses in obvious passing situations.
Gameplan: Start with whatever team goes down first and continue to trade the volatility as the teams trade scores back and forth.
JAX vs DET:
This game sets up as a classic spot to capitalize on scripted vs non scripted plays, which have been so profitable for us this year in this space.
The Lions on offense are nearly half a point better per drive on script than off, and the Jaguars are nearly .7 points better off script than on script.
Meanwhile the Lions defense has been only slightly below average on script, but is the NFL’s worst unit after the script runs out. While the pregame line should price in that the Lions are better on script than off, and the Jaguars the opposite, as live bettors we can capture on trading the volatility.
Gameplan: Bet on JAX ML and Alt spreads if DET jumps out to an early lead.
Good luck to all and let’s have ourselves a day!