2022 Week 13 Update 1!
Welcome (back) to Throwthedamball!
Announcement:
For those not yet aware, I’m going to be shifting the function of this page. I will now be making Throwthedamball a one-stop-shop for all of my content.
What does this mean? So as not to flood your inbox, I will update 2x a week with links and comments to all of that week’s works—along with some of trends you’re accustomed to seeing from the Reflection notes. I will, of course, include any post-facto process points I want to highlight.
I started this page last year to write my reflection pieces (and a few team-specific pieces) and I see these reflection pieces as mostly moot. I am so grateful that I now have the opportunity to write 3-4x a week for PFF and that I appear on multiple podcasts throughout the week with PFF and SportfolioKings. Why hear my betting process after the games when you can hear it before the games? Anyways, this is all a way to say: thank you for your support and I am grateful that this support has allowed me to expand my content and Throwthedamball will now reflect this progress.
NFL Trends:
Looking at season long trends is certainly valuable and they have their place in understanding team value—for a bettor or fan alike.
But perhaps equally important for understanding where a team is heading in the near term—approaching it like a financial security— is understanding how they have performed in the short & long term. Now of course sample sizes play a role here, but understanding context and evaluating changes in light of that context can be quite fruitful.
With that backdrop, we can use our Drive Quality to compare how teams have performed relative to their season long performance. Most teams, naturally, are in roughly the same spot. But there are certainly exceptions.
Let’s note a few here:
PHI: In week 7 everyone was ready to crown PHI team as the clear #1 team in the NFC. After a couple poor performances, though, it seems everyone is off ship. But as our chart shows, the production has remained the same even if the W/L has changed a bit. With Hurts now again getting designed rushes, I’m buying PHI as a legit NFC tier 1 team.
DAL: Since Dak came back, DAL has been perhaps the leagues best offense
BAL: As this secondary has gotten healthier and with new pass-rush additions the BAL defense has significantly improved.
CHI: As we outlined a few weeks back, the CHI offense has markedly improved. But with injuries to Fields and Mooney, this team should not be treated as a top offensive unit like production suggests.
Media Week So Far:
Leveraging Tails Week 13: Read it here:
Vegas projects MIA for only 20.5 points on account of SF's strong D. But the MIA offense has been absolutely elite with Tua no matter the scenario--man, zone, pressure, blitz, perfect coverage. Bet on elite offenses.
NFL Week 13 Betting Market Outlook: (watch below)
@deepvaluebettor and I talk through some trends from last week, market power rankings, and preview each NFL game. Be sure to never miss a stream and SUNDAY GAME TRADE by subscribing to our twitch
PFF Forecast: I talk through some live betting strategy and an alt line play I like. Listen here (22:30-32:12)
That’s it for this update— be sure to check your inbox this weekend for some more content coming and be sure to follow us on Twitch to watch us on “GameTrade” live betting the Sunday slate(honestly its just a fun/funny time)!
