2022 Week 4 Reflections
Welcome (back) to Throwthedamball!
First want to start with my apologies for not being in this space last week. Between Jewish holidays, a new job and additional football content, I didn’t want to force the issue for the sake of having something up there. Apologies, but we move on.
If this is your first time reflecting with us, I'd recommend first reading the inaugural piece of this series to get a sense of what I'm trying to do in this space.
Thought the compelling island games made up for the disappointment of having BUF-BAL and JAX-PHI in poor weather, but overall what a week of football— we’re so blessed!
@leesharpe Prediction Game recap: 3/4 weeks this year we’ve beaten the market, and am now sitting in 32nd place out of 669 participants. (PS: As we get more data, this section will feature some cool figures/financial-style metrics that will inform our betting processes and portfolios akin to a financial portfolio manager, stay tuned!)
Macro Thought: The best teams in the NFC are far worse than the 2021 versions
Through 4 weeks of the season, it seems my offseason prediction that the best 2021 NFC teams would be a lot worse in 2022 is coming to fruition. Look at how poorly the NFC’s 2021 top 5 from last year are performing on offense this year.
The question, now, is how do we use this information to improve our bottom line? I think there are two responses:
Embrace variance: If the market is going to price in the 2021 versions of these teams, I’m ready to lean into the angle betting that these teams will lose more games than the market assumes at extremely long odds. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised for Vegas to have a longer learning curve in determining who the “best” teams are. I wouldn’t be surprised for these 5 to suffer some losses to supposedly “bad” teams. Lean into the variance. I mean… NE’s 3rd string QB just gave GB fits…
Lean into the relative certainty of elite QBs: In a year without obvious contenders, I’m going to lean into the very few spots where we can have more conviction. Teams with QB’s like Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert stand out as the exceptions in the NFL landscape. Why? Teams with truly elite QB’s elevate the rest of the roster leaving a large margin for error on the rest of the roster… This has always been true, but I think the number of truly elite QBs has dwindled. I don’t think we can apply the same status to the 3 above as we would to Brady and Rodgers in their current states. But perhaps the next bunch of weeks will prove me wrong. Either way if you’re looking for practical applications here, this bullet was essentially the thesis of the Chiefs bet which we’ll dive into below( and was my second ever 2 unit bet and my first since September 2020.)
Quick Hitters:
AZ D:
After getting smacked by the Chiefs in Week 1, Arizona has quietly put together 3 quality defensive games and is top 5 in EPA during that span. Recall that this team finished top 5 in defensive EPA last year and they will be getting Hopkins back shortly. If you read #2 above, you better believe I’m levering up on AZ to win NFC West(+900) and sprinkling some some 70:1 tickets.
NYG D:
In classic Wink Martindale style, the Giants are leading NFL blitzing nearly 50% of the time. The results? 12th best EPA and 10th best Drive Quality and this is despite generating 3rd to least EPA off turnovers. Not ready to jump aboard the NYG train given the state of their offense, but the D has certainly surprised and shouldn’t be treated as a bottom level D.
The explosive Chiefs offense is back!
After finishing last year 15th in explosive play rate, they are 4th so far this year, a spot we’ve grown accustomed to seeing KC. Watch out.
Bets:
KC ML+112/-7.5+240(2U)
This was my featured bet in my weekly Leveraging Tails column for PFF. I recommend you read it for the full process, but I’ll still outline the gist of it here.
The market was pricing these two teams at the preseason prices. But the Chiefs offense is still elite and the Bucs has been legitimately bad. The Bucs offense has serious causes for concern that go deeper than simply injuries:
The Bucs finished first in Perfect Pass Block rate in 2021 (72%), but have plummeted to No. 31 (54%).
Brady’s receiving corps generated the second-highest PFF grade before the catch point over the past two seasons, but this year they are 19th in the same category.
Perhaps the pricing reflected that the Bucs ‘D’ has been playing at a torrid pace. And while perhaps the Bucs ‘D' has contributed to the poor offensive start for their opponents:the Cowboys, Saints and Packers so far rank 20th, 24th and 26th in drive quality, and 14th, 25th and 31st in EPA, respectively. Tampa Bay's defense had yet to face an above-average offense — and certainly not an elite one like the Chiefs.
Bottom line: As we talked about in our macro thoughts above, bet on the relative certainty a team with Mahomes offers, rather than the shaky Brady given his poor surroundings and that father time is catching up to him. If the market is pricing in a close game assuming the Bucs ‘D’ can slow down the Chiefs I am jumping all over the other side. Reflection: Think we absolutely nailed the process here and picked up a biiiiiig cash.
JAX ML/-6.5 +240/470:
This one wasn’t overly complicated. I wanted to lean into my numbers which suggested that JAX and PHI were in very similar tiers of team but were being priced at nearly a TD difference.
I wish this game weren’t played in a monsoon so we could actually see these 2 teams at their full capacities, but the Eagles were clearly the better team in this one.
Reflection: This is exactly the kind of spot I want to be ahead on a team like JAX. PHI has been all the rage in the NFL, and the narrative was seemingly a we need to see one more before we buy JAX. But the data and context seemingly suggest the Jaguars are the real deal, and I was happy to bet on this spot. Hopefully T-Law doesn’t turn it over 5 times in a game again.
NYJ ML: +152
As I said on the Sportfoliokings stream previewing this game, this was one of the spots I wanted to hit on a longer term thesis in a one game market. Let’s break this down:
Jets D is kinda decent: Team is top 10 in perfectly covered plays and average generating pressure. This is not the train wreck defense we saw in 2021.
Jets WRs can really get open: A function of scheme and WR talent, the Jets are 4th best at forcing opponents into make coverage mistakes, and Garett Wilson has been the best separator in the NFL per some PFF metrics I’ve developed.
Good scheme/coaching, WR talent, a sneakily good defense, and upside at QB has me bullish on the Jets relative to expectations .
The market narrative going into the game—and what was likely driving the price— was this handicap: “Wilsons’s first game back and he is a bad QB, against an aggressive PIT defense. Gimme the Steelers.” I not only wanted to fade that narrative but be on the other side…..
Zach Wilson introduces a wider distribution of outcomes. Yes, Wilson struggled as a rookie, but QB’s often improve from year 1-to-year 2 . Wilson, at his best, has a penchant for extending plays and generating explosive plays. And I’m willing to lean into his right tail precisely in a game against a dreadful Steelers offense that leaves huge margin for error on the Jets side. I did not think the Steelers would be able to build and extend leads such that it would put Wilson in a poor game script and we’d see “bad Wilson.” Rather, this was exactly the spot for him to potentially shine and for the long term thesis to play out with odds in our favor at +152.
DFS Breakdown:
NO DFS plays for me, seeing this as a better week to hit on SGP’s. You can read my process for my SGP’s here.
That’s it for this week. As always, thanks for reading and we will be back in this space next week! For graphs and articles on my process before Sunday, be sure to give me a follow on twitter @throwthedamball.
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