2022 Week 7 Reflections
Welcome (back) to Throwthedamball!
If this is your first time reflecting with us, I'd recommend first reading the inaugural piece of this series to get a sense of what I'm trying to do in this space.
Macro Thought:
I want to start by plagiarizing myself from Week 4’s reflection note.
“Macro Thought: The best teams in the NFC are far worse than the 2021 versions
Through 4 weeks of the season, it seems my offseason prediction that the best 2021 NFC teams would be a lot worse in 2022 is coming to fruition…
The question, now, is how do we use this information to improve our bottom line? I think there are two responses:
Embrace variance: If the market is going to price in the 2021 versions of these teams, I’m ready to lean into the angle betting that these teams will lose more games than the market assumes at extremely long odds. In other words, I wouldn’t be surprised for Vegas to have a longer learning curve in determining who the “best” teams are. I wouldn’t be surprised for these 5 to suffer some losses to supposedly “bad” teams. Lean into the variance. I mean… NE’s 3rd string QB just gave GB fits…
Lean into the relative certainty of elite QBs: In a year without obvious contenders, I’m going to lean into the very few spots where we can have more conviction. Teams with QB’s like Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert stand out as the exceptions in the NFL landscape. Why? Teams with truly elite QB’s elevate the rest of the roster leaving a large margin for error on the rest of the roster… This has always been true, but I think the number of truly elite QBs has dwindled. I don’t think we can apply the same status to the 3 above as we would to Brady and Rodgers in their current states. But perhaps the next bunch of weeks will prove me wrong. Either way if you’re looking for practical applications here, this bullet was essentially the thesis of the Chiefs bet which we’ll dive into below( and was my second ever 2 unit bet and my first since September 2020.)”
Why did I just plagiarize myself? Well because its fun to be extremely right and I’ve made so much money betting my above take.
Jokes aside, I still don’t think the market has priced in enough the decline of these NFC teams. The Bucs, Packers and Rams are all still ranked in the top tier of teams.
And I don’t think people quite realize the comparative advantage of the teams with the few elite QB’s given the 2022 league context.
Consider how the 3 QB's firmly in the top right—the “good tier” just so happen to correspond to the clear 3 best teams in the NFL so far. These are the guys for whom matchup matters less. I’d continue to lean into these teams.
Quick Hitters:
NYG:
Yes, the Giants have likely overachieved to a 6-1 record. But it also true that Daniel Jones is off to a good start. Jones, whose sack and turnover issues plagued him early in his career, is 3rd best in the NFL avoiding negative plays. Jones is 9th in PFF grade from a clean pocket and is 11th in EPA/play. The Giants might not be elite, but with Jones playing well and avoiding costly turnovers the Giants are a legitimate playoff level team—especially in a brutal NFC.
TB & GB:
I’ve been beating this horse for weeks now and faded them live last week(see below), but TB’s offense is legitimately bad right now.
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Jrfortgang @throwthedamballThere are some fundamental issues in TB, beyond the QB:
The team is facing perfect coverage 51% of the time. This would’ve lead the NFL last year. And perfect coverage is as much a product of offense—scheme, WR play, etc— as it defensive coverage ability. But more importantly, the base rate EPA for a team facing perfect coverage is -0.30. That’s almost double as bad as the Carolina Panthers this season. No offense no matter the run game nor QB, can overcome such a high rate of perfect coverage
And the same thing goes for GB…
LV:
Very quietly, LV is putting together quite the offensive season. They rank 4th in EPA/play, and 3rd in Drive quality on offense.
And this success is not just on the backs of once facet, but both their run and pass game rank top 10 in EPA.
I was fading the Raiders more than anyone else this off-season but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team team make a bit of a run as the season rolls along.
CHI:
Very quietly the Bears rank 19th in OFF EPA, 21st in Drive Quality,
On defense: 15th in EPA, 15th in Drive Quality allowed.
Now I’m not making the bullish long-term case on the Bears here. But the market is currently pricing them as a bottom 5 team and will likely hold onto that prior for a while. Should CHI continue to lean Field’s rushing, while cutting down his sack rate, I’d be comfortable leaning into this team for some good betting value.
Bets:
KC -6+191
The KC total was surprisingly low at 25.5. Why? It seems it was on account of the SF defense which entered this game #1 in DEF EPA.
I wanted to sell that angle and buy KC. Matchups simply don’t matter with Mahomes.
Play great coverage? Mahomes is the best at defeating perfect coverage, almost .11 better than the second-best in the same category. Defeat KC’s blocking? Mahomes is best in the NFL in EPA when the play is not perfectly blocked. Generate pressure? Mahomes is best in the NFL in EPA while under pressure. Try and blitz? Mahomes is by far the NFL's best quarterback against the blitz.
At the end of the day if you read the above note I copied from Week 4, you know why I leaned into this play: the comparative advantage Mahomes offers over anyone else is just so enormous in today’s NFL and that was not properly priced in.
JAX ML+O 42.5+330
Featured piece for “leveraging tails” this week at PFF, so would recommend reading that in full. But the gist of it:
The market is pricing the Jaguars at well-below league average, despite efficiency—Drive Quality and EPA— suggesting they're a top-10 team. The Giants defense has been propped up by poor opponents. Giants' opponents rank: 22nd, 31st, 25th, 28th, 24th, 4th in Drive Quality and 22nd, 32nd, 25th, 24th,23rd, 4th in EPA.
The Jaguars are better than their record indicates and will score handily to beat the Giants. Rather than bet the alt total at worse odds, we will bet on the Jaguars beating their expectations on offense and covering the -5.5 and the total.
Reflection: I like the process here, seeing how I could clearly identify why I disagreed with the market view. I wasn’t selling the Giants so much as buying the Jags at their price point. It’s possible I’m missing something with the Jags here, but if I were faced with another disparity like this with a different set of teams I’d be buying again I think.
Live betting:
The truth is most of the bets I place these days are live. I will always recap process for bets I make before the games, but they are certainly more limited than recent years. Either way, you can watch me stream my live bets every Sunday with Sportfoliokings—its a blast, I strongly recommend tuning in.
That’s it for this week. As always, thanks for reading and we will be back in this space next week! For graphs and articles on my process before Sunday, be sure to give me a follow on twitter @throwthedamball.
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