AFC & NFC North Divisional Check-Ins

Hi all, going to be traveling and effectively out of reach until Labor Day (WEDDDINNGGG SZN to Football SZN, about as elite as it gets), so coming in now with the last 2 divisional check-ins.

Intro note: Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, including those offering interest, betting early on futures can be a more worthwhile investment than ever.

We'll go division by division, highlighting the bets we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each one as we work through the board.

To set the foundation for our analysis, we’ll begin by looking at team fundamentals from last season, using PFF’s own Timo Riske’s chart on team performance as a baseline.

The NFC North produced three playoff teams in 2024 and ranked among the league’s best from a team fundamentals perspective.

Detroit Lions

Central Question: Can the Lions repeat their offensive success without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson?

The Lions enter 2025 as heavy favorites to win the division, having retained most of their roster, but they lost nearly their entire coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Those departures could have meaningful downstream effects, particularly on the offense, and introduce some uncertainty around how effective this unit will be moving forward.

We can define “system plays” as dropbacks where the quarterback stays in rhythm — unaffected by pressure or coverage — and throws to the side of the field he initially reads at the top of his drop.

Jared Goff excelled in these situations, performing well above average in structure, but he was below average when forced out of rhythm. No quarterback gained more EPA on in-structure plays relative to his PFF grade than Goff, suggesting that the system, rather than individual brilliance, was a key driver of offensive efficiency.

All of this points to a potentially pivotal transition: beyond the usual regression concerns, Detroit’s offensive output in 2025 may hinge on whether new offensive coordinator John Morton can replicate the success Ben Johnson had.

Is that possible? Absolutely. But there's no question he's stepping into big shoes, and the potential for production loss with Johnson’s departure is real.

I'm selling the Lions relative to the market.