AFC East Divisional Check In

Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, namely Kalshi, that offers interest in futures positions, betting on futures can be a more worthwhile investment than ever.

We'll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.

High Level Overview & Recap:

This remains the Bills’ division to lose, with Josh Allen and Buffalo entering 2025 as clear and deserved favorites. The Dolphins struggled last season amid offensive changes and injuries, and with no proven backup quarterback on the roster, they’re once again placing their trust in Tua Tagovailoa and his health. The Jets begin a retooling year after the Aaron Rodgers experiment ended in disappointment. The defense regressed to below league average, and Justin Fields will now lead the offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots were a mess on both sides of the ball in 2024 — rookie quarterback Drake Maye showed flashes of promise, and the team was aggressive in offseason upgrades, but whether that’s enough to return to playoff contention remains to be seen.

Buffalo Bills

Central questions: Can Josh Allen replicate his elite performance from last season, and will that be enough to offset a defense that has shown signs of decline?

Josh Allen put together the best season of his career in 2024, capturing his first MVP while setting personal highs in EPA per play, accuracy rate, sack rate and several other key metrics.

Allen is undeniably one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. Still, it’s worth acknowledging that last season likely represents a high-percentile outcome relative to his overall skill set. That doesn’t mean he can’t replicate or even improve on it, but realistically, the most likely scenario is another excellent season that falls just short of the production he delivered a year ago.

Allen was historically effective at overcoming disruption last season, trailing only 2022 Patrick Mahomes in expected points added on such plays since the stat began being tracked in 2019. His production in that area nearly doubled the third-best season on record, an exceptional, but likely unsustainable, level of efficiency over a full year.