Over the next few weeks, we’ll go division by division in these “divisional check in” highlighting some data nuggets and angles we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on every team as we work through the board. As always, the goal is to match the data presented with your own ideas and intuitions in forming theses on these teams.
Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.
Or a look here at 2025 EPA/Play on offense and defense
The Ravens and Steelers were middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, with the Bengals horrific on defense and average on offense. The Browns were terrific on defense, but among the league’s worst on offense.
But what perhaps defines this division are the changes year to year as this was a Ravens team dealing with a plethora of injuries last season and now entering 2026 with a new HC. Likewise, the Steelers and Browns are bringing in new coaches as well across the staff. And the Bengals were without Joe Burrow all season and if finally healthy, this should mean a far better offense.
BAL:
Central Q: Was Jackson’s 2025 a fluke?
The story of the 2025 season for the Ravens was the injuries, especially for Lamar Jackson who missed a chunk of the season with a hamstring injury. Though a small sample, in the weeks before his injury, Jackson was his usual 7th in EPA, 6th in Yard Per Dropback. But his ability to extend the play tanked as a result of injury and resulted in a far worse season.
Jackson has been among the games best at extending the play when pressure arrives, and he has used that to be one of the games premier creators and players out of system. But Jackson took a huge step back in this area going to a below average extender and his ability to play out of the system and against disruption was a far cry from career averages.
