AFC South Divisional Check in

Central Questions & Angles To Consider

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We'll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.

High Level Overview & Recap:

The AFC South was one of the NFL’s weakest divisions last season, with all four teams finishing below average offensively and only the Texans standing out defensively. Houston, however, showed serious promise in Year 1 under C.J. Stroud and has now made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons winning postseason games in each. With a new offensive coordinator and a healthy Nico Collins, the Texans will look to recapture some of that 2023 magic.

Jacksonville dealt with major injuries and coaching turnover, with Trevor Lawrence missing much of the season due to a shoulder injury and a concussion. The Jaguars responded by overhauling their offensive staff heading into 2025.

Anthony Richardson underwhelmed in 2024 and was eventually benched for veteran Joe Flacco—only to return as starter— setting up a make-or-break year for both Richardson and head coach Shane Steichen.

Meanwhile, the Titans are entering a full rebuild with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. While rookie quarterbacks often struggle, last year’s Commanders are a reminder that unexpected playoff runs can happen with rookie QBs. That’s the beauty of football—sometimes, you just never know.

Houston Texans

Central question: Can the Texans find their 2023 deep passing game?

The 2023 Texans featured one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses, driven largely by the league’s most explosive deep passing attack. C.J. Stroud led the NFL in both PFF deep passing grade and EPA generated on deep throws, adding nearly 90 total points on those attempts — 1.2 EPA per attempt.

For context, that total was the fifth-highest in any QB season since 2019 and the second-highest on a per-play basis. This mattered even more because Stroud was actually a negative EPA player on non-deep passes in both 2023 (-0.04 EPA per play) and 2024 (-0.03 EPA per play).

Given how much of an outlier season the Texans had with their deep passing game in 2023 and how small—though important— a sample of plays, the deep passing success was unlikely to sustain itself in 2024. But the 2024 version was not some mild regression from the previous season. Stroud and the deep passing game only added 10 points for 0.14 EPA/Play (29th in the NFL). And this was despite Stroud having the second highest deep accuracy rate of any QB in the NFL. Now the WR room–which accounts for plenty of deep production– was dealing with injuries for most of the season, but they will remain without Tank Dell heading into 2025.

One of the main problems for Stroud last season, especially with the deep passing game, was the offensive line. Stroud faced a 25% disruption pressure rate, plays in which pressure disrupted the play from the QB to even go through his initial progression. This rate was the highest in the NFL and a ~20% increase from Stroud’s rookie season. Consider that a prerequisite to being able to successfully throw deep is the time for WRs to get down field and the QB to deliver the ball that way.