The last of the divisions here in our race to go division by division in these “divisional check in” where we are highlighting some data nuggets and angles we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on every team as we work through the board. As always, the goal is to match the data presented with your own ideas and intuitions in forming theses on these teams. I have been running a bit long in the previews from earlier so going to try and keep these more focused and compact.
Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.
The Colts got off to a roaring start on offense before slowing down as Daniel Jones went down, while maintaining an average to below average defense. The Texans defense once again dominated with offense remaining mid as they’ve been the last few years. Likewise, the Jaguars generated many turnovers on defense leading to high EPA and lower EDP, while the offense was slightly above average. The Titans were plain old bad on both sides of the ball as one of the worst teams in the NFL.
IND:
Central Q: Was Danny Dimes year 7 a fluke?
The Colts offense was perhaps the biggest surprise of any offense early in the 2025 season, with the team leading in nearly every category including EPA, EDP, Success Rate until Daniel Jones injuries derailed the season.
The obvious question for a QB in year 7 is whether Jones and the offensive production was a fluke or how sustainable it would be going forward.
Jones threw to his first read at by far the highest clip in the NFL in 2025.
Jones has always been a QB who very often throws to his first read, especially as his career has gone along. The difference this past year was that Jones was far more effective when throwing to his first read. And while the Y axis is somewhat compressed his 0.18 EPA/Play is a massive gap from his league average. And these first read throws are precisely the area in which less falls on Jones and more on the surroundings. Jones in throwing often to his first read certainly traded off the ability to extend for a lower sack rate as he set career lows in both categories.
Similarly, even as Jones’ play in system was merely average relative to the league and even his play, the production was far better in the Colts system with Steichen.
Where Jones was at his best relative to past seasons was his ability to simply execute the system and not “destroy” plays with bad throws and poor throwing decisions. Now, much of the system last year was built on a good run game and the threat of RPO built off of that. With Jones likely less mobile off the achilles tear, much of that threat from last year will be mitigated (and IND might need to find another way to win).
But as per the year to year changes, the system with Steichen remains the same along with Jonathan Taylor and most of the offensive line outside of Tackle Braden Smith. The team lost Michael Pittman to the Steelers, but with Alec Pierce returning to health along with Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and the still effective in zone Keenan Allen, and this is still a decent situation for Jones and company.
On defense, the Colts really struggled in the second half of the season to generate pressure and perfect coverage, as Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward missed most of the second half of the season.
And the team will need those 2, who have some of the best numbers preventing separation. But coverage is a weak-link system and the team will need rookie 3rd rounder Slot CB Justin Walley along with Akeem Davis-Gaither and his 36.5 PFF Coverage Grade. And the pass rush outside of Deforest Buckner looks like some trouble and does not figure to be a strength of this defense.
This is a team with quite a wide range of outcomes, depending on your view of how stable Jones’ production was last season and with him coming off an injury. The defense looks like it will struggle even with 3 cogs as they are comprised of a couple rookies and mostly struggling veterans, leaving little room for upside here. I’ll be quick to update this team within the first few weeks, anchoring heavily to their early season play.
