AFC West Divisional Check In

In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. However, with the emergence of new platforms, including those offering interest, betting early on futures can be a more lucrative investment than ever.

We'll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.

The Chiefs once again reached the Super Bowl, but from a fundamentals perspective, the offense took a clear step back. Rather than landing among the league’s elite, Kansas City’s offense fell into the “good, not great” cluster — a far cry from the dominant units of the early Mahomes era. Of course, this is just one data point, but by nearly every metric, this offense was solid rather than spectacular.

The Chargers returned to the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season, but questions remain around their secondary weapons and whether the defense can sustain its 2024 performance. Still, with Justin Herbert under center, this team should remain squarely in the playoff mix.

The Broncos featured a dominant defense last year and doubled down on that strength by adding former 49ers Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, along with first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron. Whether they can move from fringe playoff contender to legitimate threat will likely depend on rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s development.

Meanwhile, the Raiders chose not to rebuild. Instead, they revamped their offense by trading for quarterback Geno Smith and drafting running back Ashton Jeanty. Combined with a defense that was sneakily average last year, Las Vegas has the pieces to be competitive if the offense can take a step forward.

Kansas City Chiefs

Central question: Patrick Mahomes' sack rate spiked last season, but was that an outlier or a sign of a new norm?

When evaluating the Chiefs, it’s crucial to recognize from the outset that they are an outlier — a team that consistently bucks league-wide trends. While it’s not typically sound statistical practice to dismiss certain data as irrelevant, Patrick Mahomes has repeatedly elevated his level of play to whatever is necessary to win, both on a micro and macro level.

Interestingly, the Chiefs’ offensive output has shown an inverse correlation with the strength of their defense: the better the defense, the more subdued the offense tends to be, and vice versa. On a smaller scale, no quarterback in NFL history has been more efficient when trailing in the second half. Since entering the league, Mahomes has nearly doubled the next-best quarterback in drive-level efficiency in those situations and leads by a wide margin in EPA per play.

This speaks to the delicate balance between trusting the data and understanding the context behind it. A dip in efficiency might not necessarily indicate a lasting decline, especially with a quarterback like Mahomes, whose performance often rises to meet the moment. However, there are some emerging concerns.