Can the Bucs Beat the Chiefs Using 2 Downs?
Amidst all the rightful talk about Mahomes’s dominance and how hard it is to stop the Chiefs offense, there is another massive advantage for the Chiefs. The Chiefs use all 4 downs, and the Bucs effectively use 2. This is because 1) the Bucs run the ball ineffectively far too often on 1st down and 2) they rarely go for it on 4th down.
The Bucs are wasting 1st down:
Bucs avg 2nd down yds to go is 7.9 compared to 7.3 for Chiefs
The Bucs rush SR(success rate) is 34%, yet they have moved from 50% run split in the regular season to a 66% in playoffs.
While these charts show a telling difference in EPA and SR and how well Kansas City plays on 1st down, it does not tell the full story. This is because EPA and SR are averages, and don’t reflect median outcomes.
The Bucs ranked 31st on 1st down in Sharp Stats YTS(Yards to Successful) which basically incorporates and quantifies how many yards are needed to get closer to a first down. A first down run for 6 yds is more “successful” than one for 4 yards. So as opposed to SR which is a binary 4 yds or not, YTS penalizes teams who gain -2 yds or 1 yd more than teams who get 3.
This provides helpful context as the Bucs “unsuccessful plays” are hurting them more than more than other teams. In concrete terms, the Bucs are setting themselves up for 2nd & 8 and 2nd & 9 far more often than other teams, stalling out their drives.
The numbers reflect that: The Bucs were 1st in the league (by a wide margin) in pass attempts on 2nd down with 8-12 yards to go. Given the Bucs ran the ball on 1st down nearly 60% of the time, these data points suggest that the Bucs are too often in situations of 2nd and 8+ needing to throw their way out of wasted 1st down runs.
The Bucs are actually good when throwing on 1st down, and perhaps, as the chart suggests, even better than the Chiefs! Despite their success throwing, the Bucs insist on running instead, wasting away their 1st downs.
4th down:
Aside from 1st down, the Bucs are also rarely going for it on 4th down as compared to the Chiefs. This has been fleshed out far better than I am capable, but this chart illustrates the basic problem.
The Bucs, when recommended by WP(Win Percentage), only go for it on 4th down about 20% of the time. This is contrast with the Chiefs who go for it on 4th down more than 50% of the time (when recommended).
Conclusion:
It is hard enough to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs. It is made harder when your team insists on running Uncle Lenny into a loaded box to set up 2nd and 8 rather than utilize their efficient early down passing attack.
The Bucs need to avoid the inevitable narrative that the best way to beat the Chiefs is to run the ball to keep Mahomes off the field. If they want any prayer at beating Mahomes, it will be by utilizing all 4 downs effectively.
Comments? Questions? Let’s start the conversation!
Twitter: @throwthedamball
Our sources: RBSDM, Sharp Football Stats, nflSavant