CC Championship Gameplan
SGP's, Tails Angles
To think it is Conference Championship Sunday and the season is nearing its end is a bit wild. But nonetheless, we are so blessed to be able to watch these games and I can’t wait for this afternoon.
In this note we will cover some SGP’s, hit on my favorite alt line of week, and touch on some other tails angles to consider.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Story: Eagles turn to the pass and exploit the 49ers' corners
As Arjun Menon showed, throughout this season, the Eagles have varied their run-pass ratios by week, adjusting based on their opponents' strength.
The circled teams above are all games in which the Eagles leaned into the pass because they played a top run defense. This is the case again in this spot against a 49ers defense that ranks second in EPA allowed and second in success rate allowed against the run. The Eagles should turn to the air here.
And as we spoke about last week, the 49ers defense's Achilles heel is defending the deep passing game, where Jalen Hurts has the third most yards per deep attempt in addition to the fact that A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both top 5 in PFF deep receiving grade.
But aside from just the deep plays, their linebackers are so good in coverage that they funnel opposing targets and production to WRs, allowing the eighth-most receions and sixth-most yards to opposing WRs.
Look for Philadelphia's passing game to flow, not through backs and TEs, but through Brown and Smith. who should succeed in the areas in which SF is weakest.
FanDuel Build 1: + 2772
Hurts: 300-plus yards
Dallas Goedert: u45.5 yards receiving
Smith: 90-plus yards receiving
Brown: 90-plus yards receiving
FanDuel Build 2: +39671
Hurts: 300-plus yards
Goedert: u45.5 yards receiving
Smith: 100-plus yards receiving
Brown: 125-plus yards receiving
Miles Sanders: u50.5 rushing yards
Eagles: -6.5
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Story: With Patrick Mahomes‘ injury, KC operates a quick game-offense
If Mahomes' mobility is limited, it could force the Chiefs to utilize a quick offense, getting off passes quickly while keeping Mahomes in the pocket.
And on quick concepts, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been th is offense's go-to target with his low-aDOT and 25% target share on quick throws.
Nonetheless, just because he is receiving shorter and quicker throws, that should not be confused for a lack of success in generating yardage. Smith-Schuster has been terrific at generating yards after the catch and could very well create a big play on Sunday.
Of course, if Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to operate a quick offense, Travis Kelce is surely going to be peppered with targets. This leg doubles our odds and reflects a natural second-order effect if our initial thesis on the short and quick game attack proves correct.
FanDuel Build: + 3521
Smith-Schuster: 100-plus yards
Smith-Schuster: TD scorer
Kelce: o6.5 receptions
BET: QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 275 PASSING YARDS AND KANSAS CHIEFS (-5.5, +400 — BETMGM)
This week’s circumstances function as a good reminder of what this column is truly about: leveraging tails, not mean or median outcomes. Now, nobody is certain about Mahomes’ health, but we can position ourselves to bet on the tails outcome — that Mahomes is mostly healthy — rather than just betting the spread, which is a bet on a mean or median outcome.
Fundamentals:
When looking at how well these teams have moved and prevented teams from moving the ball, we see that the Chiefs are in a tier of their own on offense but are just about average on defense. But defense is generally unstable week to week, and the Chiefs have been a top-10 defense over the second half of the season, which shouldn’t be terribly surprising considering how many rookies are playing critical roles for them on that unit.
But it should be noted on the above graph just how much more efficient on offense the Chiefs have been than the Bengals. The difference between them is the same as the difference between the Bengals and Giants. This is all to suggest that we shouldn’t forget how much better the Chiefs are than any other offense in the NFL. And if Mahomes is healthy, defenses and matchups don’t really matter; he will produce no matter what.
Accounting for all situations, Mahomes has been the best. And again, the difference in his expected points added figure to Burrow’s is the same difference as Burrow to Andy Dalton. And no matter what situation you throw at Mahomes — blitz, pressure, man, zone — he still dominates.
While one can make the case that betting on an underpriced Mahomes is always a sharp bet, what elevates this one is how well the Chiefs have defended quick passes. With an injury-hampered offensive line, the Bengals are throwing the ball in less than 2.5 seconds about 60% of the time. But the Chiefs have excelled defending such plays, allowing a negative average EPA on them.
This should not be terribly shocking considering how well their cornerbacks have prevented separation. Yes, the Bengals' wide receivers can beat anyone, but if the Chiefs' cornerbacks can slow them up on a few more plays, it might just be enough to stall a few drives and get crucial stops. And if Cincinnati has to allow for longer designing plays, Kansas City and its 37% pressure rate (seventh in NFL) could pose a major problem for the Bengals' offense.
Bottom line: Bet on Mahomes at +400 rather than at even money, and bet on the Chiefs' defense, which could sneakily slow down a Bengals offense trying to hide its offensive line issues.
Tails Angles:
Kadarius Toney is an absolute weapon especially with the ball in his hands—ranking in the 97th percentile in yards after the catch and 95th percentile in separating. All of the reasons to like Juju similarly apply to Toney although Toney has simply not seen the field whereas JuJu never leaves. Something to keep in mind in crafting an SGP on this angle: A bet on Toney is a bet that he will see the field more often which would come at the cost of some other Chiefs wideout.
Sack parlays: While the Hurts passing to WR’s is by far my favorite of the tails angles this weekend, I can also see either one of these D-lines taking over the game. PHI is 2nd in pressure rate, 3rd in quick pressure rate, and SF is 9th and 7th in those categories. Both Hurts and Purdy have a propensity to take sacks as well. On both sides, I think it is worth a sprinkle to use sacks props on DK to tell this story in an SGP.
Deebo Samuel: Three mini angles here coalesce into a deep out of money SGP build. 1) Since Jordan Davis returned, the Eagles have been a top 10 run defense which could tilt the Niners more to the pass. 2) Following the CMC trade, Deebo has been used far less as a runner and more as a pass-catcher. He will get schemed touches no matter, but his pricing still reflects his old hybrid RB/WR role. 3) As we saw against SEA, Deebo is a threat to score from anywhere on the field and can break a long catch to carry Purdy way over his prop. I’ll be betting on Purdy alt passing, Deebo alt receiving in a parlay.
Good luck to all and happy football!