Conference Championship Betting Gameplan

Tails Angles & SGPs

Jan 28, 2024

Let’s dive right into on what is perhaps the best Sunday of the year. We’ll talk about my favorite tails play of the week and some SGPs and other angles.

Quick Hitter:

The Ravens have yet to play in a game in which they trailed for most of the game leading to some clear uncertainty with how to price the Ravens especially the passing attack. Or to say it differently— in considering Lamar’s props there is no sample of a game in which the Ravens trailed though that is certainly a possible outcome here in this matchup leading to some value on the tails. I’d have interest in alt Lamar props—and as a derivative some of their receivers— with builds including Chiefs as well as Ravens wins.

BET: QB PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 304.5 PASSING YARDS & KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5 (+2500)

• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well these teams have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP). For the season, the Chiefs and Ravens look fairly similar on offense, though the Ravens have a slight advantage on defense.

• However, the Chiefs can make the case that their more recent form leaves them as a superior offense and one that looks far more like the 95th-percentile outfit we’ve been accustomed to seeing in the Patrick Mahomes era.

• For the season, the Chiefs have been merely average at generating explosive plays and drives, which is a stark difference from last season when they led the entire NFL in that very same metric.

• But in their divisional-round game against Buffalo — against a Bills defense that had been surging to that point — the Chiefs posted their highest explosive play rate of the last three years. In fact, it was the third straight game with a 10%-plus explosive play rate.

• The Chiefs are seemingly rounding into form and looking more like the dominant Chiefs offenses of the past. This would, of course, mean that they are mispriced as 4-point underdogs.

Matchup Angle

• Mike Mcdonald's defense has been the very best in the league at generating pressure this season. The group has been especially good at creating “simulated pressures,” which has given them a huge advantage over opposing offenses.

• The team has been far less dominant when it comes to generating quick pressure (pressure in less than 2.5 seconds), ranking right in the middle of the pack in this metric.

• Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has been one of the best teams at preventing quick pressure.

• Mahomes' ability to scramble and extend plays — he is by far the best quarterback of his generation when it comes to avoiding sacks — mitigates much of the advantage the Ravens' pass rush presents.

• There is only so much a QB and offense can do when an opposing pass-rusher beats his block and gets to the passer for a sack in less than 1.5 seconds. But that's not the kind of threat the Ravens defense poses. Instead, Patrick Mahomes will have to diagnose pressure and scramble to manipulate the pocket during the play, and that is something he has excelled at his entire career.

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• Rashod Bateman‘s underlying numbers are very strong, as he leads the NFL in PFF separation grade. Facing the Chiefs man-heavy defense, Bateman should be able to create opportunities for himself in this crucial game.

• Bateman has seen his snap share slowly increase over the season (and he played the second-most snaps among Ravens receivers in 2022). The current pricing reflects Bateman's early-season role and doesn't really factor in the underlying numbers that have yet to lead to production.

• Bateman has yet to have his breakout game this season. Should the Ravens be playing from behind or playing up-tempo in a potential shootout, Bateman, now with a bigger role in the offense, looks primed to be a factor in this passing game.

DraftKings SGP Build: 25-1 on DraftKings

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens: 60+ receiving yards
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 275+ passing yards

STORY: DETROIT LIONS RB JAHMYR GIBBS HAS A DAY, BUT THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS EMERGE VICTORIOUS

• Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the best runners in the NFL this season. The rookie running back has produced the sixth-most rushing yards over expected to go along with one of the NFL's better marks in expected points added (EPA) per rush.

• Part of this efficiency lies in Gibbs' explosive ability, where he leads the NFL in explosive rushes per carry. He does not need many carries to rack up big numbers, as only a few explosive rushes can still yield a huge rushing day.

• Gibbs has a sneaky good matchup against a 49ers defense that has been in the bottom quartile of virtually every run-defense metric, including EPA allowed per rush and rushing success rate allowed.

• Add up these angles, and there lies an appealing inverse correlation with the Niners winning and Gibbs having a productive day.

PointsBet SGP Build: 45-1

RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 95+ rushing yards
San Francisco 49ers: -13.5

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