Derrick Henry is an Opportunity Cost Problem
After the Titans-Packers I wanted to test a thought of mine: does King Henry hurt the Titans in as many games as he helps them?
Henry is a monster
Even if “running backs don’t matter” Henry is really good.
- He averages over 5 yards per carry.
- He has 314 yards over expected (RYOE).
- He averages almost a full yard RYOE per attempt.
- He has 64 avoided tackles (AVT) this year.
- He averages 3.79 yards after contact per attempt.
- The Titans rush EPA (expected points added) per play is 2nd in the league only to Lamar Jackson led Ravens.
The problem is these stats don’t convey a worrying issue in the Titans offense.
Is Henry an opportunity cost problem?
While Henry is dominant RB relative to his position group, the Titans also have a prolific passing game. They are second in EPA per play (only trailing the Packers) and are first in the NFL in SR (success rate) per dropback. This context is so important since it suggests the Titans run the ball far too often relative to how good their passing game is.
The Titans run-pass splits are basically neutral. They run 53% pass plays and 47% run plays. But since 3rd down is mostly a passing down, they run the ball more often on early downs. If you look at the Titans play calls by stripping out third down, they run the ball at a 54% clip.
Now that doesn’t have to be a problem if there’s a negligible difference in play output. The problem is: there’s a huge gap.
- Titans EPA per pass play is considerably higher than rushing. 0.3 v 0.03.
- Titans run the ball 54% of the time on first and second down when their rushing success rate is 9 points lower than their passing success rate.
- And according to Next Gen Stats, the Titans are running into 8-man box 30% of the time.
Titans EPA Pass vs Run:
This is one of the Titans more more worrying charts as it suggests the Titans have “wasted” many 2nd downs.
On 2nd down they average almost twice as many more yards per play on pass plays, yet 43% of their 2nd down play calls are runs.
Titans on 2nd down:
The “cost” shows up vs good teams
The old football idea that a good running back can “neutralize” a good opposing QB has simply not manifested. In fact, Henry’s dominant stat-line is mostly a product of games against bad teams.
So far this year, the Titans have played 8 teams with winning records and 7 teams with losing records and these splits show up in Henry’s numbers.
In terms of PFF grade, Henry has 91/100. His avg grade in the 8 games v teams with .500 records, 69.91.
His yards per carry average is 5.2, vs winning teams it drops to 4.37 - If you take the two Colts games out, that average yards per carry dips below 4 to 3.91.
30% of his rushing yards have come in 3 games, Houston, Jacksonville and Jacksonville again. He ran for 543 yards in those 3 games alone.
.75 3.24 5.42 4.75 6.59 4
Conclusion:
You want a player like Henry on your team, perhaps especially so in colder weather playoff games. However, the Titans over reliance on him--especially vs high level competition-- is hurting their offensive efficiency. If you take the 8 games against teams with above .500 records, the Titans have “given away” 3 yards per attempt in order to plow Henry into loaded boxes. They are leaving too many yards and points on the table, and goods teams have, and will continue to, make them pay for it.
When everyone insists that Henry is playoff “X factor,” Arthur Smith will have to feed Henry less if he wants his offense to be maximally efficient. To remain explosive against the best teams the Titans need to give it to their best player fewer times.
You can find me on Twitter @throwthedamball
Our Sources:
PFF, Next Gen Stats, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, RBSDM