DIV Round Saturday Betting Gameplan
Running a bit behind today, but I wanted to get something out for the games tomorrow before I go offline.
BAL vs HOU:
Talked about this a bunch (and more in depth) on the forecast but there’s certainly a case to be made to play the QB alts and varying spreads on both sides of the ball.
For BAL, this is a team that has increased their pass rate over the last 2 months of the season—especially after Keaton Mitchell went down— in a matchup with a massive pass-funell Texans team. This is an aggressive downfield passing attack far different than the Greg Roman days, though the markets by way of attempts/yardage are suggesting more of that style offense.
For Stroud: The Ravens have been a good defense by any stretch but with the Texans explosive capabilities they can put up yards+ points on anyone even if their efficiency series-to-series is merely average. When Stroud’s props are depressed in the aggregate there is always a case to be made for his right tail outcome.
GB vs SF:
Leveraging Tails:
Bets: GB -2.5 +400
Jordan Love 325 + GB -5.5 (+5500)
Let us begin by setting the base rates of which to work understanding team fundamentals. Weighting to more recent play, we see these two teams about equal on defense with San Francisco having the clear edge on offense nearly 0.6 points better per drive. The Niners, certainly on offense, are one of the most known quantities in the NFL as one of the very best and stable units in the NFL.
But there are reasons that suggest these teams might be even closer on offense and certainly that Green Bay can match the 49ers score for score in a shootout game script.
Even looking at the Packers past 3 weeks and this is a team playing at as high a level as anyone else. Now it is certainly a small sample here, but rarely do we see merely average teams with EDP/Drive over 3,0 (recall our earlier chart where the 49ers aren’t at 3 for the season) and the Packers have also gotten much healthier over the past 3 weeks with a now full complement of weapons back at their disposal. The ceiling for the Packers offense–the tails we are betting on– is undeniable and on par with the Niners.
But there is also reason to think that specifically in this matchup the Packers are well suited to take advantage of the Niners defense.
Much like the Cowboys last week, the Niners have been tremendous this season generating quick pressure, doing so at a top 5 clip in the NFL. But the Packers are well suited to mitigate this, seeing as they have allowed the least amount of quick pressure in the NFL even stymying the dominant Dallas pass-rush last week.
Further, the Niners have been reliant on playing from a positive game script all season. While its a relatively small sample, when the team has a win probability of less than 30% the offense has struggled to the tune of
This leaves more uncertainty as to their offensive strength and leaves an avenue in gameflow where, should the Packers take a lead, the Niners are not as strong an offense as market currently prices. Meanwhile, no matter the game state for the Packers, is an offense that has had success, leaving them with multiple paths to win this game.
Considering how dispersed touches are in this offense, I don’t mind betting some SGPs with Love overs + GB Packers WR alt U + GB Packers WR alt O’s capitalizing on the inverse correlation.
That’s all for now, will be back tomorrow night or Sunday AM with thoughts on the Sunday Games.