DIV Round Sunday Betting Gameplan
Happy Divisional Sunday to all!
Have some matchup and SGP angles below for the games today. Let’s get it!
MATCHUP ANGLE: THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AND DETROIT LIONS RACK UP THE POINTS IN A HIGH-SCORING AFFAIR
• Both the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to defend explosive plays this season, but they have each been terrific at generating explosive plays on offense.
• Much of this is a function of the two offensive lines holding up enough to provide clean pockets. Both Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have been among the league’s best when kept clean from pressure this season, with both ranking in the top five at their position in expected points added (EPA) per play from a clean pocket.
• There should be plenty of clean pockets on offer in this game, too, as these two defenses rank in the middle of the pack in terms of their ability to generate pressure. Both offenses do a good job of preventing quick pressure, as well.
• Considering these angles, there is good reason to think this game could feature plenty of fireworks through the air with quick scores and big passing attacks.
Bet to place: I’ll be targeting the over in this game, as well as the passing-yardage overs. I'll also build some same-game parlays that further flesh out this base story.
MATCHUP ANGLE: PATRICK MAHOMES AND JOSH ALLEN MITIGATE THE STRENGTH OF THEIR OPPOSING DEFENSES BECAUSE OF THEIR SCRAMBLING ABILITY
• Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are frequent (and terrific) scramblers. They have scrambled from the pocket well above league average and generated positive outcomes on those scramble plays this season.
• These two defenses are in the top quartile in terms of EPA allowed per play, success rate and various other efficiency metrics, magnifying Mahomes' and Allens' ability to scramble and make something out of nothing.
• As we studied this summer, the ability to scramble — and scramble well — mitigates the matchup advantage a defense can present. If a quarterback can move around and extend plays, it limits the effectiveness of a pass rush and buys extra time for receivers to get open, which then limits the effectiveness of the secondary.
• Markets are pricing in this game with a heavy weight toward how well the defenses have performed this year, but both of these signal-callers play a style of football agnostic to that effect.
Bets to place: I’ll be buying offense in this spot, looking at game total overs and overs on props — passing and rushing — for Mahomes and Allen.
STORY: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS OVERCOME STRONG BUFFALO BILLS RUNNING GAME EN ROUTE TO A DIVISIONAL-ROUND WIN
• The Chiefs have struggled to defend the run this season and notably rank toward the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics, including expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and yards allowed per rush.
• Most concerning, though, is that Kansas City ranks dead last among teams when it comes to allowing perfectly blocked runs — the type of plays that lead to explosive rushes.
• Bills running back James Cook has been one of the NFL's best from an efficiency standpoint and is firmly in the top right of the above graph that shows EPA per rush and rushing yards over expectation.
• Cook has racked up the second-most explosive runs of 10-plus yards on the season and is always a threat to break a big run.
• Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, the Bills have run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, running 5% above expectation, meaning that volume will be on Cook's side.
• The inverse correlation between Cook's rushing yards and a Chiefs victory elevates this SGP. While books usually price in a strong correlation between rushing yards and a team winning, Cook still has many paths to a strong game without the Bills winning, both via explosive rushes and the Bills maintaining a strong run game throughout before losing late in what is expected to be a very close game.
PointsBet SGP Build: 20-1
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills: 80+ rushing yards
Kansas City Chiefs: -6.5
STORY: JOSH REYNOLDS CONTINUES HIS EMERGENCE AS THE DETROIT LIONS’ WR2
• Reynolds has quietly put together a terrific season for the Lions, with his underlying metrics suggesting that he is one of the game's most underrated receivers.
• The seventh-year pro has been well above average when it comes to separating, and he's been one of the best in the game at the catch point and after the catch.
• With Kalif Raymond out with injury, Reynolds has emerged as Detroit's clear No. 2 receiver. He's played close to 90% of the snaps over the past two weeks en route to a robust 23.7% target share.
• Reynolds should be lining up against Carlton Davis, who ranks 80th among 128 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF grade. Davis has been targeted by opposing offenses 23% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league, so there should be plenty of volume for the Lions pass-catcher.
• Reynolds also possesses a deep role in the offense and boasts the second-highest average target depth among his teammates. This is especially relevant in a matchup with a Tampa defense that has allowed the fifth-highest rate of explosive plays.
PointsBet SGP Build: 28-1
WR Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions: 95+ receiving yards
WR Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions: Anytime TD
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