DIV Weekend Gameplan
I didn’t really have a good feel for the games yesterday, so mostly laid off besides for long serious tails SGP’s. But I have a bit more conviction in today’s games liking both underdogs and the passing games.
CIN vs BUF:
My case for the Bengals and favorite alt-line play of the weekend. Read here.
BET: QB JOE BURROW OVER 280 PASSING YARDS AND CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5, +550 — BETMGM)
Fundamentals:
While the current Buffalo Bills -5.5 spread would suggest that there is a clear tier gap between the Bengals and Bills, that notion doesn’t hold up when accounting for team efficiency, especially over the second half of the season. For the season, both teams have roughly the same efficiency numbers, and while CIN has remained mostly consistent throughout the year, Buffalo’s season-long numbers are propped up by its dominant start. Following a bunch of key injuries, I’m skeptical that including early-season numbers has as much signal as looking at a sample of their second half of the season numbers.
Over the second half of the season (which also roughly corresponds to Josh Allen’s elbow injury and Ja’Marr Chase‘s return), these teams have been roughly even in their ability to move the ball, as captured by drive quality.
And by EPA as well, on offense the Bengals have a 0.10 EPA to the Bills 0.06 EPA. On defense, CIN's -0.06 EPA allowed ranks 6th best in the NFL, while BUF occupies the 18th spot at a -0.01 EPA.
Matchup Angles:
The talk of this week – and what is certainly behind the line movements toward Buf – is the Bengals offensive line's injuries. Nonetheless, the losses mean less to a Bengals team that has been terrific using quick passes, which generally mitigate pressure because the ball is out before pass-rushers even have the opportunity to generate pressure.
Burrow has the best PFF Grade (90.5) on quick throws by a wide margin, and the Bengals' 0.13 EPA is top in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Bills have both struggled to defend quick passes allowing a 0.16 EPA per play, and the team ranked toward the bottom of the league at generating quick pressure since Von Miller went down.
It seems likely that Cincinnati employs a quick-passing game plan, as they threw quick passes on 82% of their passing plays last week.
Why Joe Burrow?
We’ve illustrated reasons to be bullish on the Bengals but why are we including Burrow in this play?
Since the Bengals' Week 10 bye, the team has consistently passed above expectation, which suggests that the game script volume will not be an issue for Burrow.
And quietly, the Bills' pass defense has the 10th-worst dropback EPA allowed over the second half so, in addition to the volume, there’s no reason to suggest the matchup will limit Burrow’s efficiency.
Even taking a step back and looking at the macro-view, if the Bengals are going to win this game and keep pace with the Bills offense, they will need to lean on Burrow and the Bengals' passing game.
DAL vs SF:
As we spoke about last week, DAL has been Drive Quality’s #1 offense since Dak returned from injury. As I always do, bet on elite offenses to beat any defense, especially when prices are depressed on account of the matchup. I like Dak + Cowboys spread mini SGP’s.
And here is how I’m attacking in the SGP market.
Story: Dak and Lamb explode in Cowboys win
The Niners defense has been undoubtedly a dominant unit this year, but their Achilles heel has been performance defending the deep pass.
The team is allowing the 3rd most yards of any team on deep passes. The deep area of the field. Prescott has consistently earned top 10 PFF grades on deep passes throughout his career and Ceedee Lamb has is likewise a top 15 WR on deep passes.
And in addition to racking up yards on potential deep balls, because the Niners are so good in coverage with their linebackers and safeties, the team filters targets to WR’s allowing the 6th most yards to opposing WR’s.
As Kevin Cole has shown in his research on QB sacks, this example below illustrates what has been true throughout Prescott’s career: that he is one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks.
If Prescott can mitigate the Niners D-line advantage and attack deep and hit Lamb in space this could turn into a huge day for the Lamb, Prescott and the Cowboys passing attack.
FD: +15630
Dak Prescott 325+ Yards
CeeDee Lamb 150+ Yards
CeeDee Lamb TD
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Thanks for reading! Let’s get it!