Longtime readers know that I am a fan of Ben Johnson and we’ve written a bunch about what he can do in the run game and what he can develop within the system. Through 7 weeks, the run game has been solid even if it has taken a step back from previous seasons, only 12th in Rush EPA and 13th in Success Rate.
But with the emergence of Caleb Williams, this team has needed to rely less on the ground game and has leaned more into Williams. With Williams, the team has thrown 5% more than expected (adjusting for the situation), 2nd in the NFL. And there is a good reason for the change as Caleb Williams is showing the makings of a QB in the midst of a massive year 3 leap.
To understand the areas where Williams has most improved, let’s first understand his play style and what has changed year over year.
(And a quick editors note: I am using partial samples relative to full seasons worth of data, but the data looks roughly equal using randomly sampled 4 week sample points.)
Williams entered the NFL in 2024 and was immediately one of the best in the NFL at buying time after pressure arrived (X axis), extending the play for an average of ~1.4s after pressure arrived. And he was doing this primarily through scrambles, abandoning the pocket and trying to extend the play. The problem for Williams is that he wasn’t buying time to generate productive outcomes, with his pressure to sack rate close to 30%, and only 2024 Will Levis worse of any QBs in my database. And as a result of his inability to avoid sacks, Williams was 25th percentile in his grade against pressure.
But Williams was almost a one trick pony in his ability to scramble and extend. 2025 saw a massive improvement in his sack avoidance with a pressure to sack rate of 10% and his production against pressure jumping to 70th percentile. And Williams took another step in his ability to extend going to 1.7s on average and with his scramble rate increasing from 15% to 23%. And so far in 2026 Williams has been extending even more and the results are a QB with best numbers in the NFL right now under pressure. But play under pressure is generally unstable, is this just a fluke?
Not all pressure is created equal, and I’d argue Williams has developed a few key skills that, combined with his traits, will allow him to be among the game’s best in these pressure situations. Beyond his “play extension” ability to extend post pressure (often hurries) Williams has developed a new skill in his arsenal which is his ability to manipulate the pocket and move within the pocket to navigate pressure.
Williams is moving within the pocket without the scrambling that comprises most of the earlier pocket extension far more often this year (and the most in the NFL) and his efficiency doing so has skyrocketed. This leaves Williams with effectively two ways to deal with pressure either breaking the pocket to scramble and create, while also maintaining the ability to manipulate the pocket to create good throws.
Beyond more toys in the arsenal, Williams not panicking and staying within the pocket, points to a broader improvement in Williams processing and play style-- leading to better decision-making and accuracy.
Without being a one trick pony just looking to extend and go into scramble drill, Williams has allowed for more plays to develop and to be in a position to deliver balls accurately from a throwing position in the pocket. Consider the difference of a scramble drill where WRs need to break off routes and improvise as opposed to plays sticking in the pocket where they can simply finish their routes and have more time to win.
Williams is throwing into tight windows only 6% of the time, down from 14% year 1, 10% last season and is throwing to open WRs at a career high rate as well. And this play from last week perfectly illustrates the change for Williams.
Here we have this subtle play where Williams manipulates the pocket moving it to the right and then, rather than bail when pressure arrives, stays inside the pocket, steps up, and makes an accurate throw to generate huge YAC.
The result for the full season now is that his accuracy rate has skyrocketed and with more accurate throws comes more YAC and more ability to take advantage of the scheme. In past years Williams inaccuracy cost the team some huge YAC opportunities, but the game has changed this year. And the Bears are not just at league average this year but now one of the very best in the NFL generating YAC, with Williams only behind Mahomes & Allen in YAC generated. And what is perhaps most interesting about Williams’ accuracy, aside from the total number ascending, is that he has been more accurate across all areas of the field.
Whether by area or depth of the field, his accuracy has risen. The result is a far more complete player and one who has not compromised on his awesome ability to scramble and make something out of nothing, but has also developed a better pocket presence allowing him to deliver more accurate balls and for the offense to improve as a result.
And while not the focus here, the same traits of processing have also translated to play outside of pressure, where his rhythm EPA, undisturbed EPA are 85th percentile up from 60% last year.
I don’t think the play under pressure is a fluke, at least not directionally. Now, in year 3, he’s still the best in the league at breaking the pocket, but he’s added something he never had: the ability to move within it. He’s stepping up, sliding, and resetting without bailing into scramble drill, and the result is a QB and offense with a multitude of ways to win vs pressure and kept clean. QBs tend to develop and improve, and we might just be witnessing the year 3 ascension of the next great offense with Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.