Kevin Stefanski COY
Kevin Stefanski coach of the year +2000
Quick notes:
Coach of the year is a narrative-driven award.
Kitchens was largely blamed for last year's Browns debacle.
Coach of the year is narrative dependent; Given Kitchens /Cleveland narrative, if Stefanski turns them around”(10 wins?) he will be given credit and thought to be “deserving” of coach of the year.
There is good reason to think Browns will win 8-12 games and make playoffs.
Before doing any analysis, we must first understand the scope of how “Coach of the year” is awarded. Many will suggest that coach of the year is simply given to the coach of the best team of the league. Looking at recent winners, I think it rather clear the award is narrative dependent, in that there is no tangible stat or metric that largely affects the award-- such as TD passes to an NFL MVP or Points for the NHL MVP. Instead, the award is dependent on a story. Recent history has largely dictated that coach of the year goes to coaches who have 1) overcome adversity (Payton ‘06, Arians ‘12) or, more often,
2) led a significant turn around from the previous year(s) to change the course of a franchise (Rivera 2015, Garret 2016, Mcvay 2017, etc).
Any football fan is familiar with last year's Browns “hype train.” The team had sky-high expectations--again, note the narrative-- with a loaded roster led by star rookie Baker Mayfield and new coaching staff that had seemed to rejuvenate the franchise in the latter half of 2018. Yet, the team fell well below “expectations” winning only 6 games. Mayfield failed to replicate his superb rookie season and much of the “blame” was placed onto head coach Freddie Kitchens who looked wholly overmatched as a play-caller and head coach. Of course, the Kitchens debacle comes after Hue Jackson was handed the reigns of the browns and he promptly went 3-36-1, making a fool of himself in handling Deshone Kizer, and infamously taking a dive into lake Erie. The Browns coaches simply have not been models of NFL success.
To add more to this narrative, Cleveland has missed the playoffs the past 17 years. I think it is well understood the degree to which the Browns--and even other Cleveland sports teams--have been the laughing stocks of their leagues. It seems that if the Browns are good, especially given last year's coaching debacle and Browns/Cleveland history, Stefanski will be a prime example of a coach who led a turnaround and “changed the narrative” and course of the Browns franchise. The bottom line is, if the Browns are good, they immediately become a storyline and Kevin Stefanski becomes the public face of a monumental turnaround.
Of course, all of this narrative is irrelevant if the Browns aren’t a good team this year. But I think this team should win 10 games this year and make the playoffs.
The roster is still talented and they added PFF’s #10 tackle in Jack Conklin, and promising Jedrick Wills with the #10 overall pick. Tackle was a major areas of concern last year, as Mayfield was pressured on nearly a third of his dropbacks. Not to mention that the offense added Austin Hooper to an already elite group of offensive weapons for new head coach Stefanski to work with.
Stefanski himself adds value to the Browns team this year. Per PFF, which uses “EPA, PFF grades and hierarchical clustering of play types” in tracking play caller’s value, Stefanski added the 4th most value of any offensive coach. Minnesota’s offense also saw the fourth highest improvement in EPA per play overall with Stefanski taking over play calling. Cleveland, on the other hand, with Kitchens calling plays, saw their efficiency decrease. The coaching match is perfect as well: Stefanski’s offense had the highest rate of runs outside, an area where the Browns had more success than any other team. Stefanski ran play action at 31% last year 6th most in the league, and Baker Mayfield since coming into the league has the highest Y/PA on play action at 20.
The defense returns Myles Garrett who was suspended for much of last year, and the secondary should see improvements from young corners Ward and Williams along with aforementioned Delpit. The team ranked 17th in Football outsiders Pass defense DVOA, a metric rating per-play efficiency on pass defense, and with a healthy Garrett and improvements in play from a growing secondary, this unit should be among the top 12 in the league.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Browns, unlike last year should have an easy schedule. Last year, the Browns played 7(!!) games against top 5 pass defenses per Football Outsiders DVOA. That will surely not repeat itself this year. While it is true that the Browns will play in a tough AFC North, the rest of schedule is less daunting. The team plays its non-division away games against the Jets, Giants, Jaguars, Titans, and Cowboys, which, aside from the Cowboys, is a particularly forgiving away schedule. It is not as if the home schedule is particularly difficult either, with games against: Houston, Indianapolis, Washington, Vegas, and Philadelphia
In sum, with better pass protection, play calling and talent utilization, Baker will improve on his year 2 performance, the young secondary will take the next step in leading the defense, and the Browns will take advantage of an easy schedule to win 10 games. The narrative of: Cleveland Browns: “joke of the league” will be put to a halt as Stefanski takes home Coach of the Year honors at +2000.
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