Let Russ Cook Never Died
The narrative surrounding the 2020 Seahawks seems to be a story of two parts: “Let Russ Cook” was the story of roughly the first half of the year, while the Seahawks' turn to the run was the story of the second half. But I don’t think this story is particularly accurate. Let’s take a look at the Seahawks Pass/Run ratios from the first and second half of the season.
It is certainly true in the early weeks the Seahawks let Russ cook, having him pass on early downs at the highest rate in the league. And while it is true that the Seahawks stopped throwing as frequently at the halfway point of the season, they still maintained a pretty heavy pass approach ranking 5th in the league with a 57% pass rate on early downs.
And even despite this relatively more run heavy approach on early downs, the Seahawks still passed the ball far more frequently than they have ever in the Russell Wilson era. Consider this graph below which illustrates that the Seahawks ranked towards the bottom of the league in early down pass frequency since Wilson entered the league in 2012.
And, of course, I am end-pointing to some extent by choosing the start of the Russell Wilson era. But the trend remains the same: the Seahawks, even in the second half of 2020, still threw the ball at a rate higher than they ever had before. The “Let Russ Cook” movement never quite died. So what did change?
A Tale of Two Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson began 2020 throwing deep balls(ADOT of 20+) at a blistering pace. 12.5% of his throws were deep passes, and of those throws, Wilson completed 50% for a healthy 18.9 YPA. He led the league with a 99.9 PFF Deep grade. In other words, Wilson was nearly as perfect as could be when throwing deep, and the Seahawks offense surged as a result.
But Wilson struggled in exactly this area in the second half of the season. Wilson ranked 23rd in PFF deep grade, with a 73.9 grade. 12% of his throws were deep, and he completed only 28% of those passes for a meager 9.6 YPA.
Let us look at his EPA and CPOE on deep throws relative to the rest of the league during these weeks.
By any metric, Wilson really struggled on deep throws during the second half of 2020. It is Wilson’s struggle in this facet that seems to have changed during the second half of 2020, not the Seahawks early down run pass ratio. Russ was allowed to cook, he was just burning the soup.
But, of course, Russ has 9 years of other data, a larger and more predicative sample. This suggests that these 8 weeks in 2020 were just an aberration. Wilson has been among the games best--if not the best-- at throwing deep over the past decade:
This brings us back to square one. Russell Wilson’s deep passing in the second half of 2020 is noisy. But the trend to pass more on early downs is anything but noisy. This reflects a philosophical change, something deliberately chosen and less prone to variance. It would seem then, that the markets would be high on the Seahawks, anticipating a similar early down R/P ratio to 2020, but with a more consistent Wilson. Whatever the reason-- division opponents, the aforementioned Russ narrative, or something else entirely-- the Seahawks find themselves with decently long odds (+300) to repeat as NFC West champs. The market, I think, has this story flipped.
The narrative:
I do generally like to stick to strictly a data-driven approach, but I think this case warrants an exception. There were numerous reports this offseason about Wilson being unhappy in Seattle, especially with the firing of his Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. Wilson has also made it no secret that he wishes for the Seahawks to attack deep more often. If there is a semblance of rationality in the Seahawks organization, they will do everything in their power to please Wilson. And, they might be especially incentivized to please Wilson as they watch the Aaron Rodgers saga unfold in GB.
Bottom line: I would be especially surprised to see the Seahawks adopt the run-centric approach of years past, and would be even more surprised to see Wilson struggle deep as he did in the second half of 2020. With perhaps the NFL’s best deep passer on a team likely looking to throw, Wilson and the Seahawks seem like a steal to win the division at +300.
Sources: nflastr, PFF
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Twitter: @throwthedamball