NFC East Divisional Check In
Over the next few weeks/ months, We'll go division by division in these “divisional check in” highlighting some data nuggets and angles we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on every team as we work through the board.
Eagles
Central Q: Can the Eagles survive another offensive change and this time without AJB?
Jalen Hurts once again has another offensive coordinator with Sean Mannion taking over as offensive coordinator. Of course, Mannion is somewhat of an unknown and there is a world of possibility he is the next great coordinator coming from the Lefleur tree. But that world of possibility is still small and while it does increase the range of outcomes, we still have plenty of data from Hurts to build a case around.
Hurts had his worst marks as full time starter across multiple categories including PFF Grade and EPA.But what is perhaps most troubling about those numbers is the play style difference which enabled that.
Hurts is at his best extending plays and creating with longer pockets.
And while Hurts took fewer sacks in 2025, it also meant he was extending the play less. His ability to generate EPA out of system tanked as well, posting his lowest EPA out of system as a pro, losing -0.12 EPA per play. (we can define plays in system where a QB goes to his first trad and where the defense does not move him off his reads). And this has been an area where Hurts has excelled, and one that is less scheme dependent, as it happens after the play breaks down.
Hurts scramble run rate is on a continual decline, and if Hurts is no longer the player who can extend, he will need to reinvent himself as a different player— one whose play style we have yet to really see succeed in the NFL.
Making matters worse for Hurts is that the team traded AJ Brown, who has been such a dominant receiver for Hurts. Since arriving, AJ Brown in man coverage— where receiver talent shines through—accounts for nearly a third of Hurts total EPA generated despite being only 8% of Hurts total dropbacks.
The Eagles will need to rely on DeVonta Smith who has been terrific himself to win against man coverage. But life will be far more difficult without AJB soaking up the attention on the other side and with safety help cueing in on Brown.
Likewise, Hurts entirely relied on the deep pass for his success last season, generating a career high 50 EPA on deep passes (0.64/EPA Play), but his non deep passes lost nearly 12.5 points. For context, Hurts was 39.5 on deep throws and 44 EPA on non deep throws in 2024. This alone is a worrying sign for a QB in Hurts. But compounded with a player who has seemingly gotten weaker in his mobility both as a runner and extender, that they lost their #1 deep threat in Brown and there are some worrying signs for the Eagles offense.
