NFC North Divisional Check-in

May 12, 2025

It was a glorious Mother’s day weekend here in NY and I think it is time to get back to some football writing on data I’m working & thinking through + some thoughts on current markets.

And now the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, including those offering interest, betting early on futures can be an actually viable investment.

Over the next few weeks/ months, We'll go division by division in these “divisional check in” highlighting some data nuggets and bets we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each team as we work through the board

To set the foundation for our analysis, we’ll begin by looking at team fundamentals from last season, using PFF’s own Timo Riske’s chart on team performance as a baseline.

The NFC North produced three playoff teams in 2024 and ranked among the league’s best from a team fundamentals perspective. Of course you can choose your efficiency metric of choice and it will reveal a similar story. For this reason, the Lions are the favorites followed closely by the Packers and with a gap between them and the Vikings + Bears.

Detroit Lions

Central Question: Can the Lions repeat their offensive success without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson?

The Lions enter 2025 as heavy favorites to win the division, having retained most of their roster, but they lost nearly their entire coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Those departures could have meaningful downstream effects, particularly on the offense, and introduce some uncertainty around how effective this unit will be moving forward.

We can define “system plays” as dropbacks where the quarterback stays in rhythm — unaffected by pressure or coverage — and throws to the side of the field he initially reads at the top of his drop.

Jared Goff excelled in these situations, performing well above average in structure, but he was below average when forced out of rhythm. No quarterback gained more EPA on in-structure plays relative to his PFF grade than Goff, suggesting that the system, rather than individual brilliance, was a key driver of offensive efficiency.

All of this points to a potentially pivotal transition: beyond the usual regression concerns, Detroit’s offensive output in 2025 may hinge on whether new offensive coordinator John Morton can replicate the success Ben Johnson had.

Is that possible? Absolutely. But there's no question he's stepping into big shoes, and the potential for production loss with Johnson’s departure is real.

I'm selling the Lions relative to the market.

Green Bay Packers

Central question: Was Jordan Love’s 2024 season a glimpse of what’s ahead, or an outlier performance?

Recall that the 2023 Packers closed the season as a pass-heavy, downfield-oriented offense, dismantling the Cowboys in the wild-card round before narrowly falling to the 49ers in the divisional round. But in 2024, the offensive identity shifted dramatically — only the Eagles and Ravens ran the ball more than Green Bay relative to expectations.

The signal here may not lie in the stylistic change itself but in why that shift occurred. It’s possible the team leaned more heavily on the ground game because Jordan Love played through injury for much of the season. His scramble rate dropped 11% year over year, and his scramble EPA plummeted by 107%. The rest of his game also declined: his overall EPA and PFF grade fell by 26% and 23%, respectively.

It’s not guaranteed the Packers will replicate their ground success, though it’s reasonable to expect continued strength given Matt LaFleur’s track record — Green Bay ranks third in both rush EPA and rush success rate since he took over as head coach.

If the run game holds up and Love’s dip in production was largely injury-related, this offense could quietly be one of the league’s most efficient in 2025. I’m buying the Packers — and I’m bullish on where this team is headed.

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Central question: Was the Vikings’ offensive success in 2024 a product of Sam Darnold’s emergence, or another Kevin O’Connell masterclass?

For the past few seasons, the Vikings’ offense has found success regardless of who’s under center, particularly on plays where the quarterback remains in structure. Across three different quarterbacks over two seasons, Minnesota has consistently generated strong production on dropbacks unaffected by pressure or coverage. That trend should give confidence that the offense can continue to function efficiently with J.J. McCarthy now at quarterback.

What set the 2024 Vikings apart from previous iterations was a defense that ranked second in EPA per play and third in success rate and among the best in virtually every efficiency metric. With the coaching staff intact and most of the key personnel returning, it’s reasonable to expect this defense to remain well above average, even if a slight regression from its elite level is likely.

Despite all this, the market currently prices Minnesota as a longshot to win the division. While McCarthy remains an unknown, having yet to take a regular-season NFL snap, there’s a strong prior for quarterback success under Kevin O’Connell, especially in clean-pocket situations.

If the market’s hesitation is driven primarily by uncertainty at quarterback, this could be a clear buying opportunity, particularly for those who trust the track record of this offensive system.

Central question: Can Caleb Williams capitalize on the schematic upgrade under new offensive coordinator Ben Johnson?

It’s natural to expect an upgrade for Caleb Williams now that he’ll be operating in Ben Johnson’s offensive system — the same scheme that helped turn Jared Goff into a highly efficient quarterback and elevated the Lions into one of the league’s top offenses. But Goff was also uniquely well-suited to thrive in that environment. His accuracy and decisiveness allowed him to consistently produce from within structure.

For Williams, that particular strength has yet to be consistently demonstrated at the NFL level.

“Destroy rate” refers to plays where the quarterback is kept clean and still produces a negative result, whether it’s taking a sack, a failed scramble or an inaccurate throw. Caleb Williams ranked at the very bottom of the league in this category, “destroying” nearly 55% of those clean-pocket opportunities. He also struggled under pressure, taking a sack on just over 25% of his pressured dropbacks. Compounding the issue, Williams led the league in the rate of pressures he himself was responsible for.

Of course, quarterbacks develop, and Williams has every opportunity to improve. He was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason, and his ceiling remains extremely high. The market’s optimism is largely driven by the arrival of Ben Johnson, which is understandable given Johnson’s track record. But as we’ve outlined, his system may not be an ideal fit for Williams at this stage of his development.

For that reason, while acknowledging the upside, I’m selling the Bears relative to market expectations, at least on median outcomes, until we see more consistent, in-structure play from their quarterback.

As always, appreciate the support and let me know if you have any thoughts on the contents within or any other question/comments/feedback.