NFC South Divisional Check-In

Key Questions + Tails Angles

Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, namely Kalshi, that offers interest in futures positions, betting on futures can be a more worthwhile investment than ever.

We'll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.

High Level Overview & Recap:

The NFC South is an intriguing division, but there’s a clear pecking order heading into 2025.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clearly established themselves as the class of the NFC South last season and enter 2025 as the rightful favorites to win the division. The Atlanta Falcons underwhelmed in Kirk Cousins‘ first year but will now turn the page to Michael Penix Jr., retaining a roster that still played to a .500 level. The Carolina Panthers had a tale of two seasons — the defense struggled from start to finish, but the offense showed signs of life as Bryce Young rebounded following his midseason benching. And then there is the New Orleans Saints, who were simply bad in 2024 and project poorly heading into this year, making them the justifiable long shots in the division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Central question: Can quarterback Baker Mayfield replicate his 2024 success?

Fresh off a second straight NFC South title, Baker Mayfield enters 2025 learning his third offensive system in as many years. That context is important when evaluating his recent production and setting expectations for the upcoming season.

Mayfield nearly doubled both his EPA per play and PFF grade from 2023 to 2024, a jump that shows up across virtually every meaningful category. And one of the most notable schematic shifts was how screen passes factored into the offense. In 2023, Mayfield ranked seventh-lowest among quarterbacks in screen rate. By 2024, that number jumped to the fourth-highest at 15%.

Not only were screens more frequent, but they were also highly effective. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff generated more EPA per play on screens last season. But accounting for the total volume, Tampa Bay’s screen game added nearly 28 expected points, the second-highest mark by any quarterback in the past four seasons, trailing only Patrick Mahomes in 2021.

With former offensive coordinator Liam Coen now out of the picture, it’s likely that Baker Mayfield will throw fewer screens in 2025 — and be less effective when he does. That matters because the uptick in screen usage last season helped mask one of Mayfield’s long-standing weaknesses: handling pressure.