NFC West Angles

Over the next few weeks/ months, We’ll go division by division in these “divisional check in” highlighting some data nuggets and angles we find most valuable. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on every team as we work through the board. As always, the goal is to match the data presented with your own ideas and intuitions in forming theses on these teams. I have been running a bit long in the previews from earlier so going to try and keep these more focused and compact.

Let’s take a quick glance at Offensive and Defensive EDP, or Earned Drive Points which measures the efficacy and sustainability of drive level success, to set the baseline for our analysis. Of course EDP is just one metric and is by no means dispositive to team success. Nonetheless it should give us a rough frame from which we can analyze the division and teams.

Or a look here at 2025 EPA/Play on offense and defense.

Looking at this division from EPA and EDP standpoints, we have a dominant Seahawks defense and average offense, with an all around dominant Rams team. The 49ers offense was once again terrific, but its defense, decimated by injury, was a bottom unit. And the Cardinals were below average on both sides and worse without Kyler Murray who missed the second half of the season.

And unlike most of the other NFC divisions, this one had relatively little turnover with a Cardinals team in tank mode and mostly returning coaches/QB combos. But let’s dive into the framing of what should be a grueling divisional battle.

Rams:

Central Q: Can Rams run back the 2025 script?

I think the framing and expectations is essential in breaking down the this Rams team. This is a Rams team power rated to be the very best in the NFL (double next team in SB odds despite the division) and by all accounts they should be a dominant team. But the lens by which we are basing the analysis is with an expectation of the Rams as the league’s juggernaut.

Now if we were to use the 2025 data as main anchor that would make sense. This was a dominant Rams offense. And high level looking at Stafford he had one of the better QB seasons of the last 5 years.

Stafford here was firmly in the top right here with his grading and EPA in 2025.

But also relevant is where it falls relative to some of Stafford’s other seasons. 2021 saw a similar EPA year for Stafford as the team won its first Super Bowl. The 2022-2024 years did not come close to the 2021 year (until 2025). And with a QB, coach, and similar supporting casts we have strong data and priors that it is fair to suggest that not too much changed from year to year from an underlying point of view. Rather, this was a team that in my view ran pretty hot in 2025. And if we simulated the season 10K times this one was like 90th+ percentile good (and the 2021-2024 years are a decent sample of the distribution of what else is in the cards). Given the small samples of football and randomness it is unlikely for any team to be able to keep up with the pace set by this offense, let alone a team where we’ve seen the ceiling before and other (still good) years within the distribution.

The natural question to ask is whether something changed from a play style or approach from Stafford year to year. On average Stafford threw the ball further (9 ADOT from 7.5 last 2 years and 6.6 year before) and naturally had a higher Deep Attempt % than previous season. And while Stafford had a terrific year throwing deep, it was not his best nor that different from his 2023 season in deep production. It was non deep throws where Stafford gained most relative to past seasons. Stafford set a low in sack avoidance and in particular he was dominant on screen plays which generated 0.23 EPA/Play following 4 straight years of negative EPA on screens. Did Stafford all of a sudden improve his sack rate from career average or did he run good on a small sample of plays? McVay figure something out in the screen game? Maybe. Is it likely a combination of that and randomness? I think so-- and that’s the exact sort of framing I can’t escape in thinking about the Rams.

This is a Rams offense in particular that is very fragile. The team will be starting a 38 year old QB with a major chronic back problem-- there’s a world of probability the wheels fall off there or he cannot stay healthy. All world WR Puca Nacua missed only one game last season and Davante Adams is almost 34. And behind them? This is one of weaker WR groups with Mumfield, Xavier Smith, Jordan Whittington struggling to earn their keep and 6th round rookie CJ Daniels expected to get some major work in the slot. Can McVay elevate this offense? Of course. Are there major problems if Nacua or Adams miss time? Absolutely.

What perhaps might counteract the Rams offense, is a defense that looks like an absolute wagon.