Part 2: Bet TEN to win SB at 20:1
So we established in Part 1, that there is pretty good reason to think TEN can reach an elite offensive ceiling with everyone healthy come playoff. But aside from the comparison to IND, this team has a few angles in my view that make them an extremely compelling futures and SB bet at 20:1. Let’s dive in:
Certainty:
Perhaps what has most defined the 2021 NFL season is the lack of consistently dominant teams. Whether it be the numerous shocking upsets we’ve seen this year, or the constant flip-flopping of “best teams” atop the market power rankings, no teams have been consistently dominant.
We can also see this lack of dominant teams borne out in the data. Consider the scales of the following 2 charts which detail the offensive Drive EPA of teams in 2020 and 2021 so far.
What these charts, and especially the scales, suggest is that most of the good teams this year aren’t as dominant as they have been in the past. The gap between the “best” and “rest” just isn’t that large this year and is minuscule compared to last year. But the market is pricing in its usual certainty despite a seemingly lack thereof(The SB odds mirror past years in pricing top 8 teams).
Markets View & Inefficiency :
Here is where TEN ranks by 2 market standards: slightly below average(-0.1) using point spreads
And similarly, most power rankings have them slightly below average(17-20) with the exception of PFF.
TEN is being priced for their current output—how this team looks in short term. But in context, we can project TEN to be a vastly different team come playoff time. And this is what we detailed in Part 1 of this series-- that this 2021 TEN team, once in the playoffs and healthy, should produce close to the TEN 2019 & 2020 teams that were top 5 offenses. The market inefficiency lies in that TEN’s future output is far different than their short term output but the market is pricing the two as the same.
But because this bet can be seen more as a financial “trade” than “let it ride” bet, we can also benefit from market volatility. By this I mean that while the market is now pricing TEN for their current output as a 17-20 ranked team, we also know how they will price TEN if everyone returns to health. That is, rather than being closer to TD underdogs — as would be the case if a 17-20 ranked team played a top tier playoff team— come playoff time, the market will likely revert back to pricing TEN as they did in weeks 8-10, when they were considered a top 10 team. So rather than being closer to 7 pt underdogs, as current prices would suggest, the spreads of TEN playoff games will likely be revolving around 3, and we could even see TEN as home favorites, making this TEN trade far easier to hedge for profit.
Hopes for the # 1 seed:
Lastly, this team is not dead for the #1 seed. Writing this before Week 17, TEN is favored by 3.5 vs MIA and 12 facing Houston in Week 18. Should TEN win out , and KC lose to either CIN or DEN, TEN would clinch the # 1 seed. Now while this is not the likeliest scenario, it represents a legitimate possibility. Most projections have this as about a ⅓ chance of happening.
It need not be stated how beneficial the #1 seed would be for the chances of this bet hitting, and for the value of holding a 20:1 ticket.
Bottom line: This bet plays on a few different theses. TEN is being priced in both game-by-game and futures for their current mediocre output. But we can project them to be far better in the playoffs with their team fully healthy. In a season defined by uncertainty, we are getting a team at 20:1 with a legitimate possibility at the # 1 seed, getting healthy at just the right time. As a valuable ticket to hedge, or to ride to a possible SB run, TEN is the best futures bet on the market right now.
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