SB Gameplan

Feb 09, 2025

Sad to see another football season come to a close (is it September yet!?). I try and approach the Super Bowl like any other game, not going too crazy vis-a-vis bankroll and bet types (though obviously worthwhile to take advantage of some additional props offerings with some pricing edges). But for our purposes in this note, we will discuss some key matchups that I think will go a long way to determining the game/important prop markets along with a few SGP angles.

I also wanted to take some space here and thank everyone here for their support this season. I love to research and write these columns and I remain extremely humbled that so many of you subscribe and (seemingly) enjoy this as much as I do week-in-and-week out. I am extremely grateful to all of you and look forward to some off-season research+writing and a full season of Throwthedamball next fall.

But Let’s dive into the SB…..

Key Matchups

Barkley vs Chiefs run D:

I think this one kind of goes without saying, but both in terms of how this game plays from a scoring and a gameflow perspective emanates from Eagles run game vs Chiefs run D. The KC run D for the season has been top 5 by most run efficiency metrics, but has been leaky throughout the last few months of the season ranking closer to average in most metrics. I’m not sure the matchups matter all too much relative to game flow and how dominant this Eagles O-line has been this season. But with that said…
While the Eagles run game has been extremely efficient (and has seen volume given their game script), it has not been the most dominant on a down-to-down basis (only 10th best in Success Rate). Part of that is heavy volume, but we should also not confuse an explosive rush attack (by far #1 in rate and value added on explosive runs) for a more consistent move the chains type of attack.
What does this mean for betting purposes? I think a bet on the Eagles running game in this matchup and given current pricing, is a bet on Barkley to break an explosive (or a few) and less so on a running attack that is going to get amass tons of volume and sustain drives on the ground. Can that happen? Of course. But for reasons we’ll get more into below, there are more appealing ways to attack this game and what the second order effects might be of the Eagles not getting an explosive rush or not simply playing the entire game while in full control.

Eagles Pass Catches vs. the Kansas City Chiefs’ man coverage

The Chiefs have leaned heavily on man coverage this season and have increased their use of man coverage in the playoffs every year under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (with this year being no exception).

But if the Chiefs choose to play man coverage against the Eagles, they will have their hands full. A.J. Brown has been one of the game's most dominant receivers against man coverage, leading in yards per route run (YPRR) while also posting one of the best separation grades.

DeVonta Smith has also excelled against man coverage, ranking fourth in separation grade and producing one of the better YPRR marks. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert leads all tight ends in YPRR against man coverage, highlighting a significant advantage for the Eagles' skill position players.

The Chiefs secondary has been solid in man coverage this season. Cornerback Trent McDuffie has played particularly well and leads the NFL in separation prevented in man coverage. That number, however, might look different had he lined up against Smith and Brown all season.

How well he and the Chiefs' secondary hold up could be a deciding factor in this game. I lean to the Eagles getting the better of this matchup, but there is plenty of mass in the Chiefs CBs stepping up here —especially with Watson back— and stymying the pass game a bit.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts vs. obvious passing situations

The Eagles have spent most of the season playing with a lead, running the fewest plays while trailing of any team in the NFL. Combined with a strong ground game, this has resulted in the Eagles running very few plays in obvious passing situations.

However, the Chiefs present an entirely different matchup — one that could force the Eagles into more passing situations. While their run defense has been merely average in recent weeks, the Chiefs still rank in the top five this season in nearly every metric when it comes to stopping the run. Plus, with Mahomes on the other side, the Eagles could be trailing early and forced to play catch-up.

While the sample size is small, Jalen Hurts has had mixed results in obvious passing situations. He has taken many sacks but has remained above average in efficiency despite them. Against a Chiefs pass rush that ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate and several other key metrics, Hurts' ability to avoid sacks and generate explosive plays in these situations will be crucial to the success of the Eagles' passing game if they are to succeed.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. the Eagles’ middle of the field

The Eagles defense has been dominant by nearly every metric this season, ranking as the NFL’s best so far. However, if there is an Achilles' heel, it’s their vulnerability in defending the middle of the field and tight ends.

Philadelphia has allowed nearly eight catches per game to slot receivers, and Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in both slot routes and receptions this season. His route tree and usage closely resemble those of Zach Ertz, who recently torched the Eagles' defense for over 10 catches and 100 yards.

If the Chiefs are going to establish their passing game against this stout defense, they will likely need at least one receiver to stand out. With extra rest and a highly favorable matchup, Kelce may have the best chance to do just that.

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MISC:

I also just wanted to touch on the KC WR core here. If you believe that Mahomes is going to have some success against this defense, it is likely going to be true that one of the KC WRs will go with him. Here is the case I can think of for the others popping.
- Worthy: He has been the pretty clear alpha in terms of routes and target share, and has been the primary option when Mahomes throws within 2.5s. If the Chiefs are getting the ball out quick it is likely to go to Worthy. Of course the nature of his role also allows him a high floor of success, and he is always a threat to break a big play.
- Hollywood Brown: He has taken Worthy’s role from earlier in the season running the deep and intermediate areas of the field. For Brown, if the Chiefs can exploit the Eagles deep he is going to be the likeliest recipient of that deep success. He is also going to operate plenty out of the slot and how much he lines up in the slot vs outside will also largely depend on how much Hopkins plays. More Hopkins =more slot for Brown
- Hopkins: This is a bet on usage and that he will play more than he has in the past few weeks. Given where the market is pricing him, it might only take a catch or two for him to fly over his alts and with the possibility of deep targets, really not much needs to go right, especially if we are conditioning on Mahomes having a good game.
I think also worth noting on the Eagles side that, even before Gainwell’s injury, Barkley has run more routes in the playoffs than he did in the regular season. I don’t hate the angle of Barkley alts and even getting heavy volume in a certain game script. Of course, that explosive Barkley play can also very well be a reception (and hey, maybe they scheme him some balls if they can’t get the ground game going early).

The Philadelphia Eagles take on a pass-heavy approach en route to a Super Bowl win

We've discussed multiple times in recent weeks how the Eagles have rarely played from behind, especially by more than one score.

No team has run fewer plays when trailing by more than one score than the Eagles, who have just 66 such plays all season. Conversely, they have run 100 more plays than any other team when their win probability is above 75%, meaning they have spent far more time in clear run-heavy situations while playing from ahead.

However, the Chiefs also rarely find themselves in negative game scripts and seldom trail for long, making it reasonable to expect most of Super Bowl 59 to be played in neutral situations. This differs from the typical Eagles game script, where they can lean on their run game and control the pace while playing from ahead.

Simply due to game state, the Eagles will likely pass more than usual in Super Bowl 59. This season, Jalen Hurts’ median number of pass attempts is 25, but against the Chiefs, that number could rise—especially given how Kansas City plays defense.

While the Chiefs’ man coverage rate ranked middle of the pack during the regular season, they have historically increased their reliance on man coverage in the playoffs.

Jalen Hurts has been far more effective against man coverage than zone. While his production against zone has been about league average, he ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.

If the Eagles turn to the passing game, this matchup plays directly into Hurts' strengths, giving him a clear path to production. Just because Philadelphia has rarely needed to throw due to positive game scripts doesn’t mean that will be the case in Super Bowl 59. With the stakes at their highest against an opponent like Kansas City, Hurts may be asked to throw more frequently, making traditional season-long volume stats less indicative of what to expect.

SGP Build: 29-1 on Fanatics/DraftKings (prices will likely fluctuate)

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 32+ passing attempts and 275+ passing yards
Philadelphia Eagles: -2.5

Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster gets several opportunities against the Eagles’ slot defenders

With Philadelphia’s defense presenting tough matchups across the board, opposing teams have often targeted the slot, where the Eagles have allowed below-average marks in targets, receptions and yards to slot receivers.

This is where JuJu Smith-Schuster primarily operates — he occupies the slot role in Kansas City’s offense, oftentimes in 11 personnel packages, a formation the Chiefs have leaned on more heavily in the playoffs leading to more routes for WRs than the TE’s.

This play is also a bet on usage. Smith-Schuster's role has fluctuated throughout the season, but he ran twice as many routes as DeAndre Hopkins in the AFC Championship Game, signaling a potential increase in involvement.

With injuries and shifting roles among Chiefs receivers, there has been significant rotation — including Xavier Worthy’s route tree changing dramatically since Hollywood Brown’s return. This bet assumes that Smith-Schuster’s increased usage against Buffalo will remain consistent, solidifying him as Kansas City’s clear third wide receiver in Super Bowl 59.

No matter how you look at it, the Eagles defense presents a tough matchup. However, if Patrick Mahomes finds a way to overcome it—as he often does—the production has to go somewhere.

With a relatively favorable matchup in the slot and a role that carries upside, JuJu Smith-Schuster emerges as a valuable betting option.

SGP Build: 33-1 on Caesars

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs: 4+ receptions, 50+ passing yards, anytime touchdown