Stop Overlooking Brady and the Buccaneers
Stop Overlooking Brady and the Buccaneers
Types of change:
When evaluating or predicting teams over the year, I like to differentiate changes as either “built-in” or qualitative changes. “Built-in” changes refer to games(same idea for players) where no new information emerges. These are prone to week-to-week variance, and one should not change their priors or bet their odds as a result. An example of a “built-in” change would be the Bears 5-1 start. We learned nothing new about the team simply because they won 5 of their first 6 games. Their QB situation never changed, and no new players emerged that one should have adjusted their priors from their fundamental value of a 7-9 win team. It seemed that they were getting lucky, and they did eventually regress to the .500 team they fundamentally were.
But qualitative changes refer to fundamental changes where new information changes one’s evaluation of a team(or player). These types of changes are less prone to variance, and to which one should adjust their priors. The Buccaneers made a fundamental change by beginning to pass the ball further downfield on early downs. The result is perhaps the best offense in the league.
The Fundamental Change:
Before the Buccaneers bye in week 13, their offense had been struggling on early downs. They ranked ranked 18th in EPA/Play(Expected Points Added per Play), and 25th in SR(Success rate). But the Buccaneers, after the bye, began to attack further downfield on early downs. Brady’s ADOT(Average Depth of Target) has increased almost 2 yards from 8.8 to 10.7. (For context, over the course of the year, a 10.7 ADOT would lead the league by close to 2.7 yards per attempt which is same difference between QB # 2 and QB #33). Since the bye, Brady’s efficiency numbers have skyrocketed.
The Results Since the Bye:
Brady leads the league on early downs in EPA, SR, and is 2nd in CPOE+EPA composite.
Brady and has posted a league leading PFF grade of: 94.3
Brady leads the league in yards, TD’s and Yards per attempt.
The narrative, among many, is that the Buccaneers have simply begun passing more often on early downs leading to higher offensive efficiency. But this is would not explain their relative increase in passing efficiency(EPA/SR), nor does it have any backing in the data. Since the bye, the Buccaneers on 1st and 2nd down have passed at a 58% clip. This is perfectly in line with their season averages of 58% pass on 1st and 2nd down. What has changed, though, is the manner in which they’re choosing to attack on early downs.
What this handy graph from PFF shows, is that Brady is actually more efficient and better graded from the 10-19 range of the field than he is from 0-9.
One can now understand the increased ADOT in a new light. Aside from increasing the attempted yards (which of course increased your chances of gaining yards and points), Brady is actually a better and more efficient passer the further he works downfield. The Buccaneers offense is now taking more chances further downfield and Brady is better on a per pass basis despite the extra few yards the passes are traveling.
The Playoff Narrative:
The last time the Buccaneers played the Saints, they got walloped 38-3 on SNF. But of course, this is a very different Buccaneers team-- one that is maximizing their talent with an aggressive downfield offense.
To tie this back to the difference between “built-in” and “qualitative” changes, the odds (DK sportsbook as a reference at the time of writing) has the Buccaneers as 3 pt underdogs and has given them with 3rd worst odds to win the Super Bowl. But surely the market is relying on data for the entire season, viewing the Buccaneers' recent offensive surge as “built-in,” and this recent surge reflects statistical variance and not a change in their offensive approach.
But I think we should understand that Tampa’s recent surge is due to a philosophical change-- one that is more likely to sustain itself going forward. Tampa’s offense, as the last few weeks have shown, is as dynamic as anyone's in the league. They are throwing more often to the parts of the field where Brady excels.
So long as the team continues to attack deeper on early downs, there is no reason to think Brady will not continue to lead the NFL in EPA/SR. With this new early-down philosophy, this offense is perhaps the best in the NFL.
Bottom line:
I would bet them as underdogs this week, and I like their Super Bowl odds at 9:1. With 3 games to go, what is perhaps the NFL’s best offense should be given a better than 11% chance to win it all.
Questions? Comments? Feedback? Let’s start the conversation!
You can find me on Twitter @throwthedamball
Sources:
RBSDM, PFF, NGS, Sharp Football Stats,