Summer Update

Hi all, wanted to provide some exciting updates on some of my plans going forward.

I will be launching Go On Fourth Advisory before this upcoming season (if anyone is or knows someone who can design a website well, is a lawyer with some contracts experience, or accountant who can help with some logistical stuff please lmk) seeking to essentially be the football equivalent of a sell side research shop in finance. If you’re part of a syndicate, prop firm, fund, or just someone deeply involved in betting markets and are interested in what I’m building, please reach out. I’ve also copied the “About” with some more details below.

As for this substack, I am planning to go back to paid subs this week and to begin consistent writing leading up to football season. With changes in how we can bet on futures, (hello P2P betting w/ interest!), I think it is worthwhile to start getting into the weeds now and to start building some positions.

Additionally, based on feedback from many of you, I’ll be raising the price of this Substack to $18/month starting at the beginning of the season. This change will only apply to new subscribers. If you’re already signed up as a paid subscriber, nothing will change and your current rate will be locked in. As for the content, nothing is changing during the season. Just like last season, you’ll continue to get weekly betting gameplans along with occasional mid-week Stats and Angles (and maybe more, who knows).

About Go On Fourth

Go On Fourth is an independent football research and analytics advisory by Judah Fortgang, a professional sports bettor, author of Throwthedamball on Substack, and former trader at Susquehanna International Group.

Why Go On Fourth? Fourth down decisions are a perfect analogy for traders interacting in markets. High-leverage moments that require a full understanding of the risk and reward. Crucially, they are not made in a vacuum but demand awareness of team tendencies, situational dynamics, and the ability to respond to live information. Just as a coach cannot rely solely on gut instinct or static models, market participants need frameworks that are probabilistic, dynamic, and grounded in structure. The goal is not to chase the right answer after the fact, but to build a repeatable process using all available information in real time.

Building that process requires the ability to look forward. Fittingly, the name Fortgang itself literally means “to go forward.” In today’s evolving NFL landscape, the sharpest edges do not come just from evaluating individual players or teams in isolation. They come from understanding systems and interactions. It is about how offenses deploy personnel and structure route combinations, how defenses disguise and rotate coverages, how both sides respond to disruption, and how all of this plays out within the context of a matchup.

For his clients, Judah provides detailed weekly notes with proprietary data and trade ideas that highlight actionable angles. He also works closely with clients through regular calls and direct messaging. His work has become a trusted resource for traders and analysts looking to understand matchups and data at a deeper level, to identify the signals that matter most in predicting future performance and the best markets to match a thesis to a bet. Judah also works with quantitative researchers and traders to refine underlying assumptions, integrate football-specific nuance into existing models, and shape more effective modeling and trading strategies.

Go On Fourth is not a content project, but the sports equivalent of a sell-side research shop in finance. And it’s important to set clear expectations. Judah is, first and foremost, a professional bettor. He will be careful to not share direct edges for the markets he actively bets. Instead, he offers research into angles that others can apply in the markets he does not personally trade. (He might have a research view on how Caleb Williams' recent performance opens up a new SGP angle, while someone else might use that same analysis to tweak a Bears rating against the spread).

I will be back here later this week with some more offseason research and stoked to kick off a new season of throwthedamball!