Thanksgiving Betting Gameplan

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Truly one of the best days of the year and we should have a terrific slate to work with as well. We'‘ll follow a bit of a different structure, running through each game while hitting on some tails angles and data I’m looking at betting these games.

DET-GB:

• The Lions offense has changed in their offensive identity with Dan Campbell now calling the plays the last 3 weeks, moving from a ~-6 pass rate over expected team to one that has been passing more than expectation each of the last 3 weeks.

• The Packers defense has been a bottom 10 man team all season that has not blitzed much at all.

• Goff this year has been better against these zones than he has been in man, but has struggled to defeat perfect coverage which the Packers have generated at the highest rate in the NFL over the last 6 weeks.

• And the Packers have played a huge amount of two high coverage this season, where the injury to Sam Laporta looms large as he was leading the team in YPRR and 2nd in targets per route at 23%, (behind ASRB at 32%). And no other Lions receiver now has come close to that target rate against two-high with Jamo and Tesla last on the team with a 12% and 2% target rate against the coverages respectively. The team will likely need Gibbs and ASRB to carry the load if they want to have some passing success.

• Relative to base rates of a Packers defense that is 6th best in Yards Per Dropback, 9th in EPA/Play over the last 6 weeks, and a Lions offense that has dominated weaker opponents but struggled against some of the formidable ones.