Thanksgiving Betting Gameplan
Tails Angles + SGPs
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Going to write some abridged thoughts here on the Thanksgiving games and some angles + SGPs I’ll be playing.
GB vs DET:
Before we get into specifics of this game, I think it’s important to make a general note on a key part of betting approach this time of year (and it will be directly relevant to this game as well). In the earlier part of the season, in my view, the most clear sources of value is relative to balancing offseason priors with early season results. As the season goes along, teams evolve both stylistically and developmentally. The value, I think, comes from sifting through whether the changes in results are a function of variance/noise or they reflect an evolving team whose fundamentals have changed.
This brings us to my favorite tail angle of the game: betting on the GB deep passing attack.
On the DET side, over the last 5-6 weeks teams have been attacking DET far deeper than any other opponent (10,1 ADOT) which has resulted in DET allowing a bottom 5 in the NFL explosive play rate.
Jordan Love has the highest ADOT in the NFL and has the second highest % of his dropbacks resulting in a deep attempt. He will be throwing it deep often which should give him plenty of opportunity to rack up yards in a better matchup for his skillset than the full seasons data would indicate.
Further, GB has been leaning more into their passing attack in recent weeks (PROE is trending way up) and with Jones out, Dillion banged up/ineffective, and in a matchup where DET is far easier to pass against than run against, we might see Love dial it up often—and if he hits on those deep shots he will certainly take, he has a chance to rack up some yards and lead an effective GB offense.
Last note: With Jones/Wicks(likely)/Musgrave out, this spread out attack will be far more condensed. As a result, the right tail of the healthy WRs is likely a source of value and all of Reed/Watson/Doubbs have downfield roles making them attractive plays. I will be mixing some SGPs with those guys and having those WR legs replace the rush attempts/GB-4.5 below as I do think DET wins and the deep angle still holds even without making a bullish GB spread case.
Longshot SGP Build: 200:1
Love 300+ yards//Love 4 rush attempts (consider kneel equity🤨)// Love 36+ attempts
GB -4.5
SGP Builds:
WR=Reed, Watson, Doubs
0.5U on Base: (55-70:1)
- Love 4 rush attempts
- Love 275 yards
- Love 34 attempts
- WR 95 yards
0.5U on Base + TD: (140:1)
- Love 4 rush attempts
- Love 275 yards
- Love 34 attempts
- WR 95 yards
- WR anytime td
DAL vs WAS:
Curtis Samuel: DAL plays aton of man coverage where Curtis Samuel leads Washington in Targets Per Route. Running 75% of his routes from the slot, Samuel also has by far the easiest matchup for WAS against Jourdan Lewis, PFF’s 96th ranked Coverage CB. And as we studied at PFF, players with the matchup advantage have much more stable target rates in man coverage than zone. Add in that WAS has highest situation adjusted pass rate, and there will be plenty of volume to go around. Simple SGP I’ll play here: Samuel 65yds + TD @ 35:1.
Separately, The 13 point spread here is just too much I think. Sure DAL has steamrolled some bad opponents but WAS is a step up in class from the CAR/Tommy Devito NYG of the world. And the market is surely reacting to a terrible WAS loss— but that game contained no new information in my view, with it being a variant turnover type of game and we know that Howell has the left tail throwing a bunch of picks. I like WAS +13 alone and I think I’m obligated to play some Howell + WAS alts… Is it <1% likely Howell can go to-to-toe with Dak in a shootout game script? I think it’s more likely than that. You know the SGPs to play here…
SF vs SEA:
Not too much to analyze here in my view. This price builds in a sample where SF was not fully healthy. And we talked about this a few weeks back that SF is more sensitive to injury considering they rely on their scheme+weapons to create rather than have a QB who can do most of the work. When a couple of guys go down for SF that matters more than the same injuries to other teams.
But everyone is healthy and we have a good sample of how awesome this SF O is with Purdy and everyone healthy—it’s a consistent 30 point+team atop the league in every efficiency metric as well. The SEA D’ presents no matchup angle that on the surface that suggests they can stop SF and there’s no almost no way Geno Smith is fully healthy here and he faces a ferocious SF front and D’.
SF front runs and has done so for years now— when they win, they win big and I’ll be playing them on the alts. Especially if Geno is really hurt and this offense can’t get going at all, there is an appealing case for Purdy (alt) U and SF alt spreads playing a complete blow out scenario.
That’s all for today. As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball.
Happy Thanksgiving and I’ll be back in the inbox on Sunday with our Week 12 Gameplan.