It is funny how some weeks I’m only excited for more football to be back, and other weeks I am just counting down the minutes for TNF. Either way, we’re so blessed and tonight should be a fun matchup. (I’m running so low on time, apologies for typos and getting this out only a few hours before game time).
From a fundamentals point of view, these teams are nearly identical whether an EPA/Play chart or Earned Drive Points chart or whatever production metric of choice. Though included in that sample is a Bears offense that was without Caleb Williams for a few games, which inevitably would have them stronger on offense. And as a result, the market pricing this with the Bears as a point and a halfish better while accounting for home field makes reasonable sense with how these teams have played.
