Let’s start setting the tone here: the market is suggesting this is a Broncos team 8th best in the NFL, 2.2 points better on a neutral field than an average opponent and the Seahawks a few points better than the Broncos. Accounting for home field, then, that makes the Broncos slight underdogs to the Seahawks.
But as we outlined in our Stats & Angles note, the Broncos offense has not been performing like the average offense the market is implying, but a far worse unit.
Week 6 Stats & Angles
Intro Note: Football is a matchup and idiosyncratic game where teams change their behavior over the course of a season, players improve, and random results and injuries can skew outcomes that don’t necessarily reflect underlying value.
The Broncos are 6th (worst) in Series Success Rate, have the 3rd highest 3 and out rate, and are bottom 10 EPA/Success Rate, you get the idea. And rather than simply re-state the argument there, there are reasons to think with a major play style change from Nix and his lack of scramble running, there are some fundamental issues which suggest these 5 weeks bear signal onto what this offense will be.
And the one saving grace for this Broncos offense has been a run game that has at least been league average from a EPA/SR perspective.
But they now get a Seattle defense that for 2 years running has been dominant against the run with the 2nd best EPA per Rush and 3rd best SR allowed stopping the run. And this compounds the problem for the Broncos— as the long fields and obvious passing situations (which make it easier for a defense to pressure and play good coverage) further reinforce the need for Nix to create which is the exact area he is majorly struggling now relative to past years.
