We’ll start this note with usual stats & angles + move into some tails thoughts for tonight. Have latest episode for week 9 Adrenaline Lined Up as well and stay tuned for Throwthedamshow coming out tomorrow.
Stats & Angles:
Intro Note: Football is a matchup and idiosyncratic game where teams change their behavior over the course of a season, players improve, and random results and injuries can skew outcomes that don’t necessarily reflect underlying value.
I personally find that so much of my success betting at this point in the season relies on sifting through the data to understand the sample sizes that are the most relevant/predictive going forward. We are starting to see teams change their methods of attack and in some cases personnel changes that can make all the difference going forward.
TB:
The Bucs D under Todd Bowles has always prioritized loading the box to sell out to stop the run. And through 4 weeks, the team continued on that path playing heavy boxes on close to 60% of plays (2nd most in the NFL). But the team began to lighten the box in week 5 and have been around 41% loaded boxes, right around league average.
The result is a run defense that has struggled a bit more over the last month moving from top 5 in Rush EPA, SR and YPC to one that is towards the middle of the pack in those run metrics now.
And the pass defense has improved dramatically as well top 10 in basically every production metric including YPD, EPA, SR. (#1, #1, #4). This if notable on the matchups front as the market might price this as an elite run defense going forward, though they’ve made a schematic change purposely that will make the run defense less efficient at the benefit of the pass D.
Beyond the schematic change, the team also began playing David Walker at DE who has been an absolute revelation for the pass rush.
Walker is 2nd in the NFL among DE at generating pressure that blows up plays and is finishing those pressure plays as well. The TB D was dead last in pressure rate early in the season but with Walker in a full time role, this unit is now middle of the pack in their pressure rates, quick pressure rates, disruption pressure rates etc.
Combine the angles and I don’t think it’s just a random 4 week sample including a horrific weather game that makes the numbers look good. But the team has made 2 fundamental changes— 1) in their schematic desire to not just load the box and 2) in playing David Walker who has almost single-handedly elevated the pass rush.
Add it up, and while they might not be the best D in the NFL, I trust the directionality with the Bucs D being one of the best units in the NFL (how much that matters this week vs Caleb who can beat anyone is a separate question) .
