It’s the darkest night of the year (Happy Chanukah!) but there’s no better way to brighten it up than with a Bailey Zappe vs Mitch Trubisky showdown. The problem is that I’m not actually joking nor being ironic— I love this spot for tails and SGPs which is why I’m in the inbox on a Thursday night. Let’s get into it. Again, apologies for typos—writing on a tight schedule and trying to get out with enough time before TNF.
PIT:
While I prefer the NE side accounting for pricing, I do like some Steelers builds. NE is one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL which should tilt PIT to the pass and force them to play much less of the ball control style they’ve been employing over the last few weeks . This should also mean increased play volume for the game as a whole (worth nothing NE also plays extremely fast). Further, NE has been lights out against WR1s all season, but extremely vulnerable elsewhere. I don’t know which of Pickens or Johnson NE will try to take away, but I anticipate one of these receivers having a big day and the other a quiet one. I’ll be building some SGPs taking the alt O’s of 1 WR and the alt U’s of the other and I don’t hate throwing in Freiermuth to more aggressive Trubisky builds.
NE:
If you’ve been following along the last few weeks, we’ve been playing the alts with uncertain QBs in good matchups.
Here’s the gist of it as I wrote a few weeks back:
There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game. And the props are egregiously low for a spot with no weather.
NE has completed only 7 of their 41 deep attempts this season, dead last in the NFL despite ranking around 24th/25th in accuracy/PFF grade and other similar metrics. This will regress to the mean at some point, and while I’d prefer betting on a long term view as part of a longer term-thesis, if there were ever a spot to break out, this would be it. The PIT D is allowing the 3rd highest rate of explosive plays and 2nd highest rate of explosive plays over the last 5-6 weeks.
Further, since Cam Heyward returned from injury in Week 9, this Steelers D’ has been stout against the run, with the 5th best Success Rate Allowed and similar efficiency numbers in Rush EPA/YPC. With Stevenson out, it would be unsurprising to see NE turn a bit pass-heavier, especially assuming Zappe is having success (the condition I’m betting on). And this game should see plenty of play volume, especially relative to pricing, considering how good the run defenses have been (no PIT ball control like the last few weeks!) and how fast NE plays.
NE should spread the ball around outside of clear #1 Devante Parker so while I’ll be build some SGPS with him, and taking some shots on some of their secondary receivers (again, props are crazy low) my favorite build is: Zappe 250+32 attempts +NE -5.5/6.5 (700/900:1). Again, not much needs to go right, especially in this matchup, for a QB to have a slightly above average passing game in a one score win.
IYCMI Podcasts :
PFF Forecast: Walk through some SGP Builds + Locks of the Week
Matchbook Best Bets
As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball! Will be back Sunday for the Week 14 Gameplan!