Update + Futures Bet
It’s been far too long since I’ve been in this space, as I’ve been busy producing some research for PFF. If you’re interested in what I was working on this summer—from secondary play to QB-decision making, to OL play— you can find all my work here.
As for the Throwthedamball: football season is almost here and that means reflection season is right around the corner. I should also have some more content in addition to the reflection pieces— so stay tuned for that!
The Bet: CAR O 7.5 Wins +205 at Caesars Sportsbook
Before we dive in, for those who joined Throwthedamball this summer, this is a brief intro note on my betting process:
Most bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” “Which totals stand out this week?” But my goal is to articulate my process for bets by following a top-down approach similar to a portfolio. We will consider how a specific thesis on a team, player, or trend is best applied and capitalized on in the proper market. Some bets will track more traditional markets, but more often we will look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks — dependent on finding the right market for the thesis! Let’s dive in.
My Process:
It is true that Baker Mayfield struggled in 2021(see below), but how indicative was last year for future performance given that Baker played through a torn labrum all season?
As you can see, we have a larger 4 year sample that suggests Baker's statistical profile is more like that of a league average QB. Choose your efficiency metric, and how much you want to discount 2021, but his mean range of outcomes leaves him at right around league average.
OL:
The Panthers quietly upgraded their offensive line this offseason, moving on from weak production at LT, C, and RG, to adding RG Austin Corbett(1.5% SCBOE), C Bradley Bozeman (1.1% SCBOE), and 6th overall pick Ikem Ekwonu at LT.
The team ranked 29th in perfectly blocked pass % in 2021, and upgrading the weakest links in pass protection–as the Panthers have clearly done this offseason– is the most important aspect to improving O-line play and should result in better O-line play in 2022.
The defense was 7th in EPA/Play last year, and 5th in Yds/play allowed. Returning most key pieces on defense, and even building in some defensive regression, there is little reason to believe this unit will be worse than average.
Why the Alt line?
As @deepvaluebettor has noted, Carolina’s mean spread on the lookahead lines is only 2.1 points worse than their opponents. Extrapolated over 17 games, this means the spread market thinks Carolina is closer to a 7-8 win team rather than the 6-7 win team implied by the futures market.
The NFC South is weak and the top teams in the NFC have seemingly all gotten worse. TB lost key receiving and O-line pieces in addition to the potential risk father time catches up to Brady. GB, DAL and LAR lost key receivers, Stafford is dealing with arm fatigue and SF is moving on to a black box QB with Trey Lance. With so many unknowns and the top teams trending in the wrong direction despite being priced for their last year's production, betting the over on fringe NFC teams seems keen.
Bottom line: We’ve painted a picture of a team with a league average QB, an upgraded to average line, and reasonable(conservative) projection for a league average defense. It should be no wonder we’re betting into a market that capitalizes on them being exactly average. Priced for a combination of Sam Darnold’s production and recency bias from Baker Mayfield’s poor 2021, I’m grabbing the extra juice at +205 betting on Carolina being average in an NFC environment conducive to betting the over.
Looking forward to being back in this space soon and for the 2022 NFL season!