WC Weekend Betting Gameplan
Matchup & Tails Angles + SGPs
We’re going to go with a bit of a different format for this one, going game-by-game with the relevant matchup/tails angles/ SGPs/other notes, etc.
GB vs DAL
MATCHUP ANGLE: THE GREEN BAY PACKERS OFFENSE MITIGATES THE QUICK PRESSURE FROM THE DALLAS COWBOYS DEFENSE
• For the third straight year, the Cowboys have been terrific at generating quick pressure (pressure generated in under 2.5 seconds), leading the NFL in that metric by a wide margin.
• But as good as the Cowboys have been at generating quick pressure, the Packers offense has done a terrific job mitigating the same, having allowed the fewest quick QB pressures over the regular season.
• Without the ability to generate pressure, the Cowboys defense has allowed receivers to gain separation at one of the highest rates in the league.
• Over the regular season as a whole, the Cowboys defense allowed the fifth-fewest expected points added (EPA) in the NFL. That mark drops to exactly average when they've been unable to generate quick pressure, with the team ranking bottom-10 in yards allowed per play and explosive play rate allowed on those plays.
• In other words, Dallas relies on the ability to generate pressure. If the Packers can continue to block and scheme away from quick pressure — as they have all season — this matchup is a sneakily a good one for Jordan Love and the Packers.
Bets to target: I’ll be betting on Love’s passing props and the Packers team total, building some same-game parlays with Love and the Packers winning through the air.
SGP:
Story: Jordan Love picks apart the Dallas Cowboys defense en route to an upset victory
Building on our matchup column above there is reason to be more bullish on the GB right tail in a matchup against a Dallas defense that has lined up in man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. And Love and Green Bay have enjoyed plenty of success against man coverage this season.
Love has been terrific facing zone coverages this season but has been even better facing man coverage where he has a top 5 EPA facing man coverage along with nearly a .10 difference in EPA/Play.
With a dispersed concentration of touches, betting on Love and the Packers tails is most appealing in my view through just betting on Love alone taking advantage of the matchup and leading the Packers to victory.
SGP Build: 45-1
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 325+ passing yards
Green Bay Packers: -5.5
Another angle I like adding in to this core build— including some alt unders on GB WRs—considering how dispersed touches should be with everyone now seemingly healthy— and also if we can some O rush attempts in there (and U rush Yards would be gold as well to add) to capture some possible kneels + Love sneak opportunities the Packers love to employ.
DET vs LA:
Bets: LOS ANGELES RAMS -6.5 (+340)
• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well these teams have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP). The chart above shows the data from the regular season but has recent games weighted more heavily.
• The Lions have been slightly better on offense, though a large gap presents itself on defense. The Rams have sneakily been league-average on defense and have held some of their best offensive opponents — most notably the Ravens — below their rolling average of offensive efficiency.
• If we look more granularly for the most relevant sample for this game, we see that the Rams offense has been fairly dominant and consistent since Matthew Stafford returned from injury in Week 11.
• And while on-field/off-field splits are generally noisy, it is difficult to ignore the fact that this team ranks first in expected points added (EPA), success rate, points per drive and virtually any other category of offensive efficiency when Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have all been healthy.
• So, there is good reason to think that the Rams have not only superior defense but also a better offense.
Matchup Angle
• The Lions have struggled to defend the deep pass and prevent explosive plays this season. Dan Campbell's team has surrendered the league's highest average target depth and given up explosive plays of 15 or more yards at the league's highest rate.
• Over the last six weeks, they have given up a league-high 14.6% explosive pass play rate, 3% higher than the next closest team. Opposing teams are throwing 10 yards downfield against them on average.
• This plays right into the strength of Matthew Stafford, who has been a dominant deep passer throughout his career. The veteran quarterback ranks in the top five in EPA on deep passes and sits within the very top cluster of deep ball accuracy.
SGP:
Story: Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams burns the Los Angeles Rams for explosive gains
Jameson Williams has had one of the deeper route trees of any receiver in the NFL, while also maintaining one of the best separation marks in all of the NFL. In other words, he gets open frequently and does so downfield.
The Rams, meanwhile, have allowed the 2nd highest depth of target in the NFL over the last 6 weeks playing right into the strengths of Williams and his role in the offense.
But in addition to keeping his downfield role, Williams has also emerged as a near every down player on this offense over the last month seeing 80%+ route share which should only increase with Kalif Raymond and, potentially, Sam Laporta out as well. Yet, Williams is still priced for his early season role without account for the matchup’s strengths nor his change in role and usage.
SGP Build: 40-1
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 300+ passing yards
WR Jameson Williams: 95+ receiving yards
WR Jameson Williams: Anytime touchdown
I also wouldn’t mind throwing in some Rams alt spread here as well. Williams hitting on a big game seems to be game-script agnostic and would compound our above edges as well.
BUF vs PIT:
SGP:
STORY: KHALIL SHAKIR STEPS UP FOR THE BUFFALO BILLS IN GABE DAVIS’ ABSENCE
• Khalil Shakir has absolutely dominated at the catch point and after the catch this season. And with veteran wide receiver Gabe Davis out, Shakir should see a full complement of the snaps, just as he did last week when Davis went out.
• With star interior lineman Cam Heyward healthy, the Steelers have operated as a major pass funnel, with opposing teams enjoying more success passing against them than running against them.
• Further, Joey Porter Jr. has been one of the NFL's best cornerbacks at preventing separation and has often followed opposing No. 1 receivers. On the margins, this should help to filter targets away from Stefon Diggs, and Shakir naturally stands to benefit.
SGP Build: 55-1
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 300+ yards Passing
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills: 95+ receiving yards
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills: Anytime TD
Other notes:
While I’m pretty bullish on the BUF D’ the bad backup thesis should in theory hold here— especially if BUF returns to their extreme run-heavy ways in a matchup where that should not succeed. With the big play ability of those WRs Rudolph can certainly luck his way into a big day. Crazier things have happened.
TB vs PHI:
A bunch of injury news here such that I don’t have anything concrete on the card—perhaps if we get some updates early Monday I will send along another update for this game.
As always, appreciate the support and let’s have ourselves a day!