Week 1 Betting Gameplan
Tails Angles, SGP' & Live Betting
It’s and ugly morning here in the Northeast but who has time to be outside when we’ve got a full slate of football ahead of us!? We’re so blessed to get another season of NFL football our way.
For those of you just joining this year, this space will recap in summary form some of the main angles I’m looking to attack in the upcoming week. Most often it will be summaries of angles I’ve spoken at greater length about in earlier media/content— so if you want more reasoning you can check out the links in my last email/post— but I will also discuss angles that emerged in my late-week research as we get more prices and as injury news trickles in.
Tails Angles:
JAX vs IND:
The main thesis here is that Anthony Richardson, in the current week 1 moment and given his situation, projects as one of the worst passers of the last many years. His accuracy in college, as charted by PFF, ranked 133rd/200 and the Colts WR group is one of the weakest in the NFL. Not to mention NFL D’s are a different beast. But I’ve already said too many words on this. I’m betting the main engine of the Colts offense will be Richardson’s legs, where when facing pressure, Richardson can shine as a runner and be situation agnostic. Playing Jags spreads, Richardson U pass and O rush.
If Richardson struggles as a passer, especially in a game-script that tilts pass-heavy, the Jaguars might run a huge number of plays by virtue of many 3-and outs from the Colts offense.
The Jaguars became one of the pass heaviest teams as Lawrence emerged last season. And against this weak Colts secondary, and because of the Colts potential offense woes, Lawrence can explode from a volume standpoint even in a blowout game script. I’ll be playing some deep SGP’s with Lawrence and Ridley. Prices are perhaps down on Ridley because he was away from the game for 2 years— but I just see that as a player with some fresh legs. Ridley is by far the best WR Lawrence has had and I would not be shocked if they come out flying in Week 1.
WAS vs ARI:
Already wrote too much on JAX, so will try and keep this one short. I’m bullish on WAS and if ARI plays out the season as most us expect them to do then this is severely mispriced. If WAS is 4-4 and ARI is 0-8 what would this spread be? 10.5?
Howell is not your typical 5th round pick— as it wasn’t long ago he was the odds-on favorite to be #1 overall. He dominated his last 2 years in college— PFF grades into the 90’s— and we know he loves to throw downfield. That’s a perfect match for Terry Mclaurin and Jahan Dotson (and Dyanmi Brown) and they could light it up early in this spot. I want to be early on the Howell train and there’s no better matchup to do it then this one against a putrid AZ team. And like JAX game, Howell can still put up a huge day even in a WAS blowout as ARI will likely have a tough time sustaining drives with Josh Dobbs and against a WAS D’ 3rd best in EDP/Drive last season.
CHI:
Justin Fields passing prop is exceptionally low for an NFL QB. While I’m bearish on Fields as a passer (ha, elite pun) getting 250 yards at an alt price of +800 for an NFL QB is just too low, especially for a QB who loves to air it out deep. If Fields connects with Moore or Mooney on some deep balls or big YAC plays a big Bears passing-day isn’t so far-fetched. You sure know I’ll be betting on some SGP’s (when the books release them) centered around the story of Fields connecting on some deep shots.
LV:
SGPs:
New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans
Story: The Saints leans on the passing game in win
Adjusted for situation, teams attacked the Titans via the pass more than any other team in the NFL. This is because the run defense was far stronger than the pass defense.
What this graph shows is that, on average, teams were averaging a 0.3 more EPA passing against the Titans by far the biggest gap in the NFL. And the personnel on defense remains mostly the same in 23, with a stout front and a secondary where no CB was even above average preventing separation last season.
It's not just that the matchup should tilt the Saints to the pass against a weak Tennessee Pass D’, but the Saints also boast a solid WR core whose separation abilities–as you can see Thomas, Olave, and Shaheed were all terrific last season– can mitigate the strength of the Titans pass-rush. This should leave Carr plenty of room to make accurate throws for his receivers to win after the catch, also an area, as you can see in this graph, where his receivers have excelled.
If Carr is winning through the air via a heavy-pass approach this would likely mean Jamaal Williams and the run game don’t get much work, even in a game script in which the Saints lead.
NO FD +2452
Derek Carr 325 Yards
Jamaal Williams U 60.5 Yards
NO ML
Bonus, if more bullish on Saints ability to win, or selling the titans, Carr 325, Williams U 60.5 and NO -5.5 would be +4625 (and more bullish on Saints spread would continue to increase the odds)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Story: The 49ers lean on Brandon Aiyuk en route to a big passing day.
The Steelers played the 5th most man coverage in the NFL last season, which could pose an issue against the SF 49ers offense. As we studied at PFF last summer, and has become a common theme in this SGP space, in man coverage targets are both more predictable and a reflection of the talent on the field.
Brandon Aiyuk is set to face off against Levi Wallace who in 2022, among corners with 300 snaps, was 3rd worst preventing separation in man coverage. Meanwhile Aiyuk has perennially been at the top of the league in separation vs man coverage.
In looking at the 49ers distribution of targets against man it is Aiyuk who has earned the highest target share by far and has also produced at the best clip.
If the Niners are going to attack through the air it is all but likely to flow through Aiyuk. Look for him to be often early and often and lead the Niners to a big passing day.
Build: +10000 on Points Bet
Purdy 300+ yds passing
Aiyuk 6+ Rec and 100+ yds
San Francisco 49ers -5.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Story: Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb carves up Giants blitz and en route to win
For as long as Wink Martindale has been a DC, his teams have been extremely blitz and man-heavy including his leading the NFL in blitz rate last season at nearly 50%.
Dak Prescott, though, should be well equipped to handle the blitz as he has been one of the most dominant QBs vs the blitz since entering the NFL, top 5 among active QBs in both categories.
And against 2 rookie CBs and an aging Adoree Jackson, Ceedee Lamb should be set to feast against this defense. Lamb had a 30% TPRR vs man and finished 5th in the NFL in YPRR vs man. He should see the ball often
The Cowboys have spoken throughout the offseason about wanting to run the ball more and that is perhaps driving the pricing on the passing offense down. But their stated preference only means so much when their revealed preferences suggest a team that wants to pass by adding Brandin Cooks and letting Zeke walk, and not signing or drafting a true replacement even with Pollard coming off an injury.
Build: 2200 on Points Bet
Dak Prescott 300+ Yds Passing
Ceedee Lamb 100+ Yds Receiving and a TD
DAL moneyline
Last, we have some live angles to consider:
Play: Anticipate early third-down struggles for Los Angeles
Part of being a successful live bettor is understanding timing and anticipating a market move right before it happens. This is, of course, much easier said than done, but preparing for situations in which we can predict the market's next move can prove extremely fruitful.
The Rams struggle when the opponent knows they’re passing (think third-and-longs and when trailing in games). This is less likely to be noisy, considering how their offense operates on motion and the threat of the run, as well as their weakness on the offensive line and how their wide receivers' inability to separate becomes magnified in obvious passing situations.
If we get some key third-and-longs early in this game, I’d look to bet Seattle spreads, alt spreads and moneylines before the Rams attempt the third downs, anticipating they are more likely to fail than the market would assume.
In the same vein, this game could get out of hand. Los Angeles struggles to mount comebacks, so if Seattle remains aggressive — think of a 14-3 second-quarter game — some deep alt lines on the Seahawks side are firmly in play.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Play: Monitor Joe Burrow‘s health and the Bengals' game plan to slow the Browns' pass rush
Joe Burrow had by far the highest expected points added figure in the NFL last season on true scramble passes — essentially when a player starts the process of scrambling and throws a pass.
Considering he will be going up against a ferocious Cleveland pass rush led by PFF’s highest-graded edge defender, Myles Garrett, Burrow will need to rely on his ability to scramble and escape pressure to be successful. But questions remain on Burrow's mobility coming off his calf injury. Can he escape pressure as well as he did last year? Will the Bengals operate quick-game concepts to try and minimize pressure?
If the Bengals operate the quick game often, there is likely some value on live reception props, especially for Tee Higgins, who led the NFL in receptions operating from quick-game concepts last season.
If the Bengals aren’t operating a quick game too often, paying attention to Burrow's mobility will be essential. If he is hampered, I’d look to bet some live sack props for Garrett and Za'Darius Smith. If Burrow looks mobile, he can minimize the strength of the Browns' pass rush, which may mean there is value to be had on the Bengals spread and moneyline.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Play: Bet on the Vikings to struggle while playing From ahead
The way the market often prices totals is simply by taking the team total at the initial point in the game and then updating for the score and time elapsed. The value here lies in picking off a particular team tendency that deviates from that initial line because of the game situation.
The Vikings, consistently in the Kirk Cousins era, have been a far superior offense when playing in neutral situations and playing from behind rather than in game scripts where they play from ahead. Essentially, this offense turns into a bottom-tier unit when playing from ahead. That has remained true every year in the Cousins era.
With Minnesota as 5.5-point favorites, it would be unsurprising if the team builds a decent lead. If Tampa Bay is moving the ball well, they are a live spread play coming back at something around +10.5 if the Vikings have a two-score lead. If the Buccaneers have no offense working and are unable to move the ball, Minnesota remaining conservative and turning into a bottom-tier offense would suggest value on a Vikings live under.
As always, thanks for the support and let’s have ourselves a day!