Week 1 Betting Gameplan
Tails Angles & SGPs
Week 1 Sunday, it might just be the best day of the year and I am absolutely stoked— we are so blessed.
As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not cover, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Of course, the SGPs are also tails angles that I like and I will be playing those angles outside the SGP constructions will not be included in the “Tails Angles” section.
Tails Angles:
We’ll do mostly quick hitters here—
CAR/Uncertain QBs
We know the drill here with betting on uncertain QBs. I wrote this in Week 11 of last year and much of that logic still applies here:
We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game.
This logic certainly applies here for Young considering the context in Carolina. It is certainly possible that going from Adam Thielen as WR1 to WR3 matters and getting legit NFL weapons can elevate Young (at least from a yardage point of view) and it is also possible that Canales is a QB whisperer. Is it likely? No. But when we replay this game in Week 12 is it more likely to me that Youngs prop sits at 240 than ~200 now or lower? Yes, absolutely.
And it doesn’t hurt that Young should have all day to throw against a NO defense that was towards the bottom of the league in pressure rate last season—and had the slowest time to pressure in the NFL— and projects to play at one the fastest rates in the NFL.
Nix: We obviously have no sample on Bo Nix, but it doesn’t hurt that he’s playing with one of the better OPC of our generation in Sean Payton. Not my highest conviction angle— but again, not that much needs to go right for a QB to put decent yardage and we’re getting some long odds.
Daniels: I’m not personally on this angle for this week (see more below), but the logic does apply considering where his pricing sits.
JAX:
Going on long (below) so will keep this short: gave this shpiel on a podcast earlier this week, but since we don’t have the time here to go in full: the narrative that Lawrence is mid is misguided in my view. Even accounting for the terrible luck from drops and playing through 2 (3?) injuries mid-season Lawrence was putting up the top 5 season that many were projecting in the 2023 offseason. I think he is this QB. While I wish Press Taylor were not calling plays, I’m going to buy Lawrence and the Jags when the market is clinging to the sample of injured Lawrence from the end of last season, rather than the end of 2022 and early season 2023 version of Lawrence. And while I am a Ridley stan, especially if Brian Thomas flashes ceiling this might be a better skill position group than last year.
But we should also talk about this MIA defense that lost DC Vic Fangio and lost effectively the entirety of their pass rush depth. The team will be starting 2 rookies on the line in Nickel and Jalen Ramsey is iffy to play (and will certainly not be at full health if he goes). I want to be playing spots early in the season where we look back at a rematch price in Week 12 with vastly different pricing. I think if there is a big move on this theoretical rematch line come Week 12 it moves much closer in the direction of JAX than it would MIA. I’m buying Lawrence and the Jags here & layering on same Gabe Davis + Brian Thomas SGPs.
ATL:
The strength of the PIT D for the last many years has been the pass rush where they rank among the top of the league in most measures of pressure/win rate. But the defense, especially last season, struggled when the pressure did not arrive, ranking as a middle of the pack defense on such plays. This plays into the strengths of this ATL offense where the O-line is healthy and grades out as one of the better units in the NFL.
And in a game script where ATL is ahead, this is a team which should be able to run plenty of plays and still accumulate passing volume. This ATL run D was atop the NFL in most efficiency metrics and projects to be one of the best units once again. Both in a positive game script and even outside of it given the run- matchup, Wilson/Fields will likely be forced into many 3rd and longs/ obvious passing situations, both areas these QBs have struggled immensely. Their propensity to take sacks and kill drives, of course, is only magnified in this situation. I’ll be playing some SGPs of Cousins alts + ATL alts spreads.
DET:
Wrote about it earlier this week— unforutantely, the CLV is real so some of the value here is gone.
SGPs
Read full article here:
Story: Tre Tucker catches deep touchdown in a Las Vegas Raiders win
Only two wide receivers earned more separation than deep-ball specialist Tre Tucker last season. Set to see more playing time in 2024 for the Raiders, Tucker is poised to be more than just a deep threat—he was dominant in creating separation even outside of deep passes.
Tucker has a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that allowed the fourth-highest rate of explosive plays last season and made minimal improvements to the secondary this offseason. He’s likely to face Kristian Fulton on most snaps, who ranked in the 20th percentile in preventing separation last year.
If Minshew connects with Tucker on a deep touchdown, that’s likely the key to Minshew hitting his alternate passing yards. Of course, there are still multiple paths for this bet to succeed, even if it’s not just one big touchdown that gets us there.
Build 1: 55-1 on DraftKings
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: 50+ receiving yards
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: Anytime touchdown
QB Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: 275+ passing yards
Build 2: 100-1 on DraftKings
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: 50+ receiving yards
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders: Anytime touchdown
QB Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: 275+ passing yards
Las Vegas Raiders moneyline
Story: WR Dyami Brown comes down with a deep pass in Jayden Daniels’ debut
With Jahan Dotson traded, there are plenty of target opportunities in Washington's offense, and the deep-threat role belongs to Dyami Brown, who posted the fourth-highest average depth of target (ADOT) in the NFL last season. Brown will have his chances for deep shots against a Tampa defense that ranked in the bottom five for allowing explosive passes.
Brown's chances are further boosted by Washington's expected high play volume this season. As shown in a graph from PFF's Daniel Galper, Washington played quickly during the preseason, which strongly correlates with their in-season tempo. This means plenty of opportunities for Washington to run plays and for Brown to rack up yards.
Brown should see significant playing time—he worked with the first team throughout most of the preseason. In a game where Washington is likely to rely on the pass, it won’t take much for Brown to reach 50 yards, while Daniels could rack up volume yards as he's forced to throw.
Build 28-1 on DraftKings
WR Dyami Brown: 50+ receiving yards
QB Jayden Daniels: 275+ passing yards
Tail spot of the week:
Spoke about this and wrote about it at length here, but can attach full case below as sample of some of the longer form process
Week 1 Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 (+ 230 on FanDuel)
First, let us establish baseline expectations by reviewing how these teams performed last season and considering key changes made during the offseason.
According to Earned Drive Points, a metric for offensive efficiency, Tampa Bay began the 2023 season below average but improved to an average level in the second half of the campaign.
Washington, on the other hand, stayed below average throughout, though they were part of a group of teams hovering near league averages.
Defensively, Tampa struggled early due to injuries but improved to league average in the second half of the season.
With Todd Bowles still at the helm and most of the defensive core intact —aside from the loss of linebacker Devin White — the team's defense is unlikely to be significantly better or worse in Week 1 than the league-average unit it has been in recent years.
Meanwhile, Washington fielded one of the league's worst defenses over the second half of the season after trading away several key pass rushers. Their defensive talent has declined further, with PFF’s seventh-highest-graded cornerback, Kendall Fuller, leaving in free agency. The team’s only additions were run-stopping linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, along with pass rusher Dorance Armstrong.
Perhaps new coach Dan Quinn can turn this defense around, but with limited personnel, Washington's defense still projects as one of the worst in the NFL.
Now, let’s revisit expectations and what the market is likely factoring in. Projecting each offense based on last season’s performance and giving Tampa a slight defensive edge aligns closely with the current 3.5-point spread.
However, Washington’s offensive projection might be a bit steep, given the matchup, creating an intriguing tails angle.
On the Washington side, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ major weakness was his inability to avoid sacks. In fact, Daniels generated one of the worst pressure-to-sack rates we've seen among recent college prospects.
That rate worsened under blitz pressure, increasing by 8% when blitzed compared to non-blitzed situations. This is concerning because Tampa Bay was one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the NFL last season, blitzing more than 50% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league.
If Daniels struggles to handle the blitz, especially behind PFF’s sixth-worst offensive line, Washington could be in for a tough afternoon, with sacks piling up and drives stalling. On this angle alone, there is likely some value in betting the left tail.
However, what makes this even more compelling as a betting opportunity is the matchup on the other side of the ball.
Baker Mayfield was dominant from a clean pocket last year, ranking among the best in the league in EPA per play. And his matchup could not be better this week, as he takes on a Washington defense that finished last in virtually every pass-rush metric last season after trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young.
With no significant additions to strengthen the defense, this unit will likely struggle, giving Mayfield a prime opportunity to excel in the area where he's been most effective for Tampa.
The bottom line
In a betting context, points represent both a team's fundamental value and the actual points scored in games. From this perspective, covering the -9.5 spread requires a team to either score heavily or limit the opponent’s scoring.
Given the risk of Daniels struggling against the blitz, combined with the upside of Baker Mayfield in a straightforward matchup, betting on Tampa Bay to cover the -9.5 spread is the most appealing option in this scenario.
That’s all for this week! as usual, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball. Let’s have ourselves a day!