Week 10 Betting Gameplan
Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs
Another glorious football Sunday, we are so blessed.
In this note we’ll cover some tails angles, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible. And my apologies for any typos, trying to get this out quickly with enough time to place before the Germany game.
A heavy card for me today. We’ll talk about matchup angles for Levis, Carr, and Stroud as well as some deep threat WR1’s in good spots for SGPs. You can also read my tails case for the Colts here. And of course, the logic of SGPs can often narrow to a tails play (see AZ below).
But in addition to these angles, we have some quick-hitter tails angles:
CLE:
While many might assume we have pretty good certainty by now of which teams are/aren’t good, I’m going to suggest there is far more uncertainty than people or the market assume. And sure the Ravens have gotten off to a hot-start, but it is also true their two best games have come against their top opponents. They’ve quietly been pretty average in other spots and have played an incredibly easy slate of QBs. Are they good? Absolutely. Are they as good as market is pricing and immune to poor performances? I don’t think so.
This leads into a similar second point: Watson’s passing props are so incredibly low especially for a QB who loves to throw deep and is good at it. And there is a difference between betting on an NFL 1th percentile outcome (think Stroud passing last week) and a supposed players top percentile game. We should have far more certainty with what an NFL top percentile game is, but for any individual players, context and surroundings change so much we should be less certain.
All of this is to say: I’m seeing Watson 300 yards and CLE -2.5/5.5 at almost 100/140:1. (recall Desmond Ridder almost accidentally threw for 300 yards twice this year). Watson can throw deep and if the Browns defense continues its dominance it can lead to extra play volume for CLE which might be more than enough to push Watson over (or at least give us a huge live hedging opportunity). The prices are simply too attractive to not play the uncertainty/tails angle here.
LAC:
Went on too long, will keep it shorter. DET has been absolutely shredded by good QBs this season. And while Herbert has struggled this season relative to his standards, prices have sold off as Herbert prop sits far lower than earlier this season and the Chargers find themselves as 3 points home dogs. I’ll play the “Herbert struggles were a function of playing KC/NYJ/DAL top defenses” angle and bet on Herbert and LAC here.
WAS:
Spoken the last few weeks regarding the changes WAS made in their blocking scheme and how that’s helping out Howell. SEA over the last month + has been 31st in generating quick pressure which should allow Howell plenty of time to throw and where he’s a good bet to continue to cutting down on his sacks. As the second pass-heaviest team in the NFL, and in a game with some shootout potential I’m going to build around Howell and WAS alt spreads in a game where Howell could very well out-duel Geno.
Matchup Angles:
MATCHUP ANGLE: WILL LEVIS’ TRAITS ALLOW HIM TO EXCEL AGAINST THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS DEFENSE
• While we only have a small sample size for Levis, we can begin to tease out his playstyle and traits, allowing us to identify the types of matchups he best suits.
• Of course, massive uncertainty is involved here, but that uncertainty is also our source of value, as the market is unlikely to have accounted for some of the data.
• Last offseason, PFF explored how QB traits and scrambling can mitigate or heighten certain matchup advantages and how certain QBs will be more or less prone to their situations.
• Levis — as seen on his spot toward the bottom left of this graph — fits the mold of the type of quarterback who is rather situation-dependent. Matchups matter far more to him than a QB like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.
• The Buccaneers present one of the best matchups for a quarterback with Levis' traits, as they generate pressure at the fourth-lowest rate and rank 26th league-wide in expected points added (EPA) allowed per pass.
• Levis has also made a habit of throwing deep, doing so on 28% of his attempts so far, a rate 10 percentage points greater than the next-closest quarterback.
• Against a Bucs defense that ranks last in the NFL in defending the deep pass, Levis should have ample opportunity to rack up yards and take advantage of arguably the Bucs' biggest weakness.
Bets to place: I’ll be playing Levis passing yards alts and Titans alts, parlaying the two. I'll also be targeting the Titans' team total overs.
MATCHUP ANGLE: DEREK CARR’S OUTLOOK IS BOOSTED IN A MATCHUP AGAINST A MINNESOTA VIKINGS DEFENSE THAT IS STRUGGLING TO GENERATE PRESSURE
• One of PFF's seminal studies found that plays without pressure are far more stable and predictive of future QB performance than plays with pressure.
• For a quarterback like Derek Carr, who rarely scrambles, his surroundings and matchups matter more. Carr has been one of the better signal-callers from a clean pocket this year, generating 0.23 expected points added (EPA) per play from a clean pocket and -0.28 EPA per play when pressured.
• Enter a matchup against a Minnesota Vikings team that is toward the bottom of the league at quick pressure and ranks 28th in quick pressure rate despite leading the league in blitz rate.
• Carr's performance doesn't drop off dramatically vs. the blitz — in fact, there are no significant splits compared to dropbacks with no blitz — suggesting that this matchup plays right into his strengths.
Bets to place: I’ll be looking at Saints -2.5, as well as some Carr passing props and same-game parlays combining the two.
MATCHUP ANGLE: C.J. STROUD CONTINUES HIS SUCCESS THROWING DEEP AGAINST A LEAKY BENGALS PASS DEFENSE
• In a 2022 study, we explored how explosive plays are integral to offensive success in the modern NFL, especially considering their impact on the drive level.
• C.J. Stroud has been dominant on deep passes early in his career, generating the most EPA per deep pass of any quarterback this season.
• Stroud will have a terrific matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed explosive passing plays of 15 or more yards at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Bets to place: I’ll be looking to bet Stroud's longest-pass props, game total overs, and some same-game parlays that build on this story.
SGPS
STORY: TANK DELL EMERGES AS THE HOUSTON TEXANS‘ NO. 1 WR IN NICO COLLINS’ ABSENCE
• We are returning to the well with C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell after very narrowly missing out on an SGP cash last week. Dell has been terrific in most facets of the game but has truly excelled as a deep threat.
• Only Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson have earned more separation on their deep routes than Tank Dell.
• As we highlighted in our matchups column, the deep passing game is precisely where the Bengals are weakest. It is also where C.J. Stroud has been especially dominant. Dell figures to be the generator and beneficiary of this matchup.
• The rookie receiver has earned a healthy 25% target rate and ranks 11th among receivers in separation generated on deep passes. Dell should step into the clear alpha role for this offense with Nico Collins out.
PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 300+ passing yards
WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans: 95+ receiving yards
WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans: 6+ receptions
Houston Texans: Moneyline
STORY: QB KYLER MURRAY LEANS ON MARQUISE BROWN EN ROUTE TO AN ARIZONA CARDINALS WIN
• It has certainly been a tumultuous year for the Arizona Cardinals, but their revealed preference — as they welcome back Kyler Murray and James Conner this week — has been to compete to win rather than tank.
• There is, of course, massive uncertainty about how to price the Cardinals with Murray back, but that uncertainty is the source of value, especially on the tails.
• The Falcons field the second-biggest pass funnel in the league, as teams have had far more success passing the ball against them than running. They rank second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush but 25th in EPA allowed per pass.
• This should tilt Kyler Murray to the air with both volume and efficiency and on his side.
• While the Cardinals' passing game has been in disarray for most of the season, Marquise Brown has been a steadying force, earning targets and separation at one of the highest clips in the league.
• Brown has been one of the league's best deep threats since entering the league, and Kyler Murray is top-10 in deep passing grade over his career. This further elevates the spot, leaving plenty of room for explosive plays to push them both well above their median prop lines.
PointsBet SGP Build: 45-1
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 300+ passing yards
WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals: 95+ receiving yards
Arizona Cardinals: -2.5
STORY: QB JORDAN LOVE FINDS WR CHRISTIAN WATSON FOR A DEEP TOUCHDOWN
• Jordan Love has been one of the most aggressive passers in the league this season, posting the second-highest depth of target and fifth-highest percentage of throws that travel 20 or more yards downfield.
• Christian Watson has been the deep threat in Green Bay and currently boasts the third-highest average target depth in the NFL. Even though target depth is inversely correlated with yards after the catch, Watson is still above average in that regard, suggesting he has multiple ways to beat a defense for a huge gain.
• The Packers take on a Steelers defense that is allowing explosive passes at the second-highest rate in the league. With a QB who loves to throw it deep in a matchup that filters to the deep pass, look for Love to hit Watson for at least one big play, pushing these two players over their prop lines.
PointsBet SGP Build: 30-1
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: 80+ receiving yards
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: Touchdown scorer
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 250+ passing yards
That’s it for this week. As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball! Let’s have ourselves a day