Week 11 Betting Gameplan
Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs
A glorious fall Sunday here on the east coast and boy am I excited for the football slate.
A bit of a strange week for me with many of my plays coming in the form of deep moonshots—but that is where I see the value on this slate. We’ll talk a bit more about this below, but I think the name of the game this week we’ll be betting on uncertain QBs whose prices reflect a certain view that the QBs are bad.
As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Can read the full tails case for LAR here:
Tails Angles
We cover a bunch of tails angles below with only a few spots I’ll be attacking outside of those.
QB Uncertainty:
I make this case for DTR below where I think its strongest, but it still applies to Tommy Devito and Will Levis. We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game. Quick bullets on Devito and Levis since we dive deeper into DTR below.
Devito: He’s probably really bad. Devito threw for 175 against the Raiders in ~2.5 quarters and got massacred by DAL last week. But Washington is a very different defense allowing the 6th highest rate of explosive drives and are now without two of their best ED players from the beginning on the season. Perhaps Devito is so bad it won’t matter, but maybe he can succeed in a favorable matchup. Not that much needs to go right to hit his alt props. Devito will look to take a couple shots and if he can connect on one (Hyatt?) I like his chances of hitting his alt props. I’ll be playing this a few different ways, but just had to be said an NFL QB putting together an average yardage game against a pretty bad team should never be 170:1 (Devito 250 + NYG -4.5)
Levis: I’m already going too long so will try and keep this shorter. Levis put together 2 encouraging games and was a hot play last week (for good reason). The market is selling Levis after struggling last week but that is every bit as likely to be noise as signal. TEN offense went from power rated by the market at 20th best to 28th best— a move far too large for a one game sample. There are reasons to fade JAX as well (just an average team by most metrics, Lawrence is clearly hurt), the Jags are a pass-funnell and Levis is going to throw it deep often. Connect on a couple of these and we can see a big passing day and upset win. Again, 125-1 for Levis 300 and TEN -5.5? Those odds are too juicy.
AZ vs HOU:
Don’t think I’m going out on a limb here saying this game is ripe for some tails plays with bad defenses and some explosive offenses. I think all the Stround angles are in play and this should be a very narrow target share with Noah Brown out. Targets are going to Collins, Dell, and Schultz. My preferred way to build is a game stack in DFS, I think, but some other ways to attack and the usual parlays are in play, though less attractive now that books have priced Stroud more aggressively.
If HOU continues their dominant & explosive attack this could leave AZ in a spot where they play up-tempo and have plenty of play volume by virtue of HOU scoring often and quickly. This would be ripe to play a Kyler alt rushing and alt passing as there is enough volume and pace for Kyler to get to both passing and rushing yards as books price those as massively negatively correlated.
SGPs:
STORY: CHICAGO BEARS QB JUSTIN FIELDS CONNECTS ON SOME DEEP PASSES AND RACKS UP THE PASSING YARDS
• Justin Fields has struggled in many areas but has shined as a deep passer, particularly this year. Fields' deep accuracy and expected points added (EPA) output throwing deep have been among the very best in the NFL.
• This matchup sets up well for Fields to be throwing often and to have some success downfield. Teams have passed over expected nearly 5% of the time against the Lions, a top-five rate in the NFL. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have faced the second-deepest average target depth and have allowed explosive plays at a top-five rate.
• If past games are any indication, D.J. Moore figures to be Fields' main target and the beneficiary of some deep passes. But if Fields is to fly over his alt prop, it will likely also require another deep catch or two, and Darnell Mooney has played the key downfield role.
PointsBet SGP Build: 110-1
QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 300+ passing yards
WR Darnell Mooney: 50+ receiving yards
WR D.J. Moore: 125+ receiving yards
STORY: LOS ANGELES RAMS LEAN ON PUKA NACUA IN A WIN OVER THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
• In this week's matchups column, we wrote about wanting to buy Stafford in matchups where he has the situational advantage, which is what he should have against a struggling Seahawks pass rush.
• We can further lean into that story by looking into buying some of Stafford's pass-catchers, who will play a key role should Stafford have the day we expect.
• The Seahawks have played man coverage at the third-lowest rate in the league, which should mean plenty of zone coverage in Week 11.
• Cooper Kupp and Nacua have been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL against zone coverage. But Nacua has dominated the target share against zone, earning targets at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams: 125+ receiving yards
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 300+ passing yards
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 30+ pass attempts
Los Angeles Rams: -5.5
STORY: CLEVELAND BROWNS QB DORIAN THOMPSON-ROBINSON HAS A SOLID DAY AND SECURES THE WIN
• The market is pricing Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s passing props at a remarkably low 161 yards despite massive uncertainty. After all, he's made only one career start.
• The Browns' rookie quarterback will have a matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in both the percentage of drives that allow an explosive play and explosive pass play rate allowed, making this a sneaky spot and leaving ample room for the Browns to rack up yardage against this defense.
• The Browns defense sits atop the league in nearly every defensive efficiency metric, while the Steelers offense is near the bottom in every offensive metric. The Browns defense figures to generate plenty of stops for their offense, increasing Thompson-Robinson’s time on the field.
• Quarterback passing and rushing yards are generally not correlated, but in this spot, with the prices so low, there is ample volume for Thompson-Robinson to fly past his alt passing props as well as his rushing ones if he has even an average NFL performance.
PointsBet SGP Build: 80-1
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns: 250+ passing yards
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns: 40+ rushing yards
Cleveland Browns: -2.5
Matchups:
MATCHUP ANGLE: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS QB AIDAN O’CONNELL STRUGGLES AGAINST THE MIAMI DOLPHINS PASS RUSH
• No quarterback has scrambled less than Aidan O’Connell this season. As we studied this summer, this makes him far more situation-sensitive than your typical quarterback. And this should be considered stable, given his traits.
• O’Connell has been unable to extend plays under pressure and has taken sacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL when pressured.
• The Miami Dolphins have been one of the best teams in the league at generating pressure, doing so 40% of the time, the fifth-best rate in the NFL.
• Compounding the issue here is that pressure rates tend to increase in obvious passing situations. And the Raiders might find themselves in many passing situations as huge underdogs against an explosive Miami offense. This would only magnify the already present matchup advantage the Dolphins have.
• What makes this matchup angle particularly appealing is what it could mean for the offense if Miami can shut down the Raiders' attack. If the Dolphins force quick three-and-outs and stall many drives, this would mean an increase in play volume that would boost the outlooks of Miami's offensive players, as well.
Bets to consider: Miami Dolphins spread, Las Vegas Raiders team total under, Aidan O'Connell passing yards under and some same-game parlays baking in the Miami Dolphins' boost in play volume.
MATCHUP ANGLE: BUFFALO BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN’S ABILITY TO CREATE AGAINST PERFECT COVERAGE MITIGATES THE NEW YORK JETS‘ DEFENSIVE MATCHUP ADVANTAGE
• The Jets defense has been terrific this season, with the team dominating in coverage. Over the last five games, New York has perfectly covered plays nearly 50% of the time, the best mark in the NFL.
• In a 2022 article, PFF outlined how perfect coverage can heavily influence offensive performance, as an average team performs like the very worst in the NFL against perfect coverage.
• But against star QB Josh Allen, that matters a bit less, and the base rates of success are far different for Allen and the Bills. Only Patrick Mahomes has been better at creating positive plays when the defense generates perfect coverage.
• The market is expecting the Jets to slow down the Bills relative to the Bills' median outcomes. But the Jets' defensive matchup advantage is slightly mitigated, as Allen can extend plays enough to avoid sacks and break the perfect coverage, as well as use his legs to scramble for positive yards.
Bets to consider: Bills team total overs, Josh Allen passing yards overs, Bills alt spreads.
That’s it for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball. Let’s have ourselves a day!