Week 11 Betting Gamplean

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

14 hours of football Sunday, we are truly so blessed. As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts.

Tails Angles:

Going to really try and make this quick hitter, stream-of-conscious thoughts here. There is a ton of wind across the league which is not ideal for most tails as it creates lower scoring, run heavy environments— but some spots to look for:

MIA:

• Spoke about this on the PFF NFL Betting Show, but this is a Dolphins defense that started the season a bottom 3 unit in the NFL but over the last 5 weeks (where the secondary has gotten healthier and Fitzpatrick moved to slot CB) has been basically league average in both production metrics like EPA as well as in quick pressure, pressure disruption, perfect coverage, etc. The defense, while priced like one of the worst in the NFL, I think is likely closer to below league average accounting for more updated and relevant information.

• On the offensive side of the ball for the Dolphins, a matchup with Washington is about as good as they can ask for. Washington is bottom 3 in nearly every passing category and only worse as you shorten the sample to games closer. YPA, YPD, EPA, you name the metric and Washington has been terrible. And they will now be without their best CB in Trey Amos and best interior in Da’ron Payne

• And Tua should get the benefit of a high single and man coverage Washington defense (6th most in each category last 4 weeks) without the personnel to defend. And Tua’s EPA is nearly 0.5 points higher against man than zone, giving him a nice path to success here. And with a Washington defense dead last in pressure disruption rate, Tua should even have some time to launch the deep balls (I don’t hate a Nick Westbrook Ikinhe SGP as a result).

LAC Passing

• The Chargers offensive line worries me without Alt as the team has struggled and even last week the offense was slow against the Steelers. But a Steelers pass rush is a different beast than the Jaguars, (PIT #1 in pressure disruption rate) and we highlighted in our tails matchup last week, how poor this Jaguars pass defense has been of late. And this is a Chargers team passing at such a high rate over expected that volume numbers can start to really pile up in this one.

• While the O-line play concerns me here, there is still plenty of mass on Hebert’s ability to work around the pass rush and pick apart this Jaguars secondary.

  

• Part of this is Herbert’s ability to scramble which should somewhat mitigate the effects of the pass rush. But this is also a Jaguars team playing a huge amount of single coverage where the Chargers have a huge advantage with 4 plus separators including Gasden at TE where Jacksonville has been allowing the 2nd most targets and yards to opposing TE’’s.

SF

• With Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall back, I think this is an entirely different SF offense far closer to the one that seemed poised for another top 10 season entering the year. And they will have the benefit of a matchup with the Cardinals down their best corner in Will Johnson. And where the Cardinals pass rush is quietly emerging, 6th in disruption pressure rate over the last 5 games, Purdy has been one of the best QBs handling disruption pressure (where Mac Jones is 2nd worst in the NFL).

• We’ve been picking on the the 49ers defense seemingly every week but I’m not sold on Brisett’s ability to overcome this matchup.

• Brissett is throwing into a massive number of tight windows (which have a base rate of INTs 10x higher than non tight windows) and where offensive success is far far less likely on the whole. And with MHJ out, the ability for the Cardinals to earn separation and open windows will only be furthered diminished. Of course, so much of the 49ers struggles come from their inability to cover given the teams injuries and this should be mitigated here by Arizona with their lack of weaponry

• And it is no coincidence seeing the number of tight windows how many plays Brissett is “destroying,” or plays where there is no disrupting event and a QB either 1) takes a sack 2) makes a throw to a non open WR 3) runs for negative expatency. On these plays, Brissett is nuking 57% where, as we’ll discuss, only JJM is worse.

• Add it up and we have a spot where I think SF should have their way moving the ball and a 49ers defense quietly in a good spot to force some quick stops and generate turnovers which is quite the nice recipe for the tails.