Week 12 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

We’ll get right into it this week and discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts.

Tails Angles:

NYJ:

• Different QB but this is still a spot where I’m seeing some value on the tails. Baltimore has been one of the highest single coverage defenses in the NFL where the Jets very sneakily have 3 85th percentile or better separators in John Metchie, AD Mitchell, and Isaiah WIlliams.

• And this is a Ravens defense that is without any CBs above average in separation prevented.

• As for Tyrod Taylor, courtesy of this graph from

  Doug Analytics
  , we see that Tyrod Taylor has been one of the most aggressive QBs throwing downfield and has done so at a decent rate of accuracy—something Fields was not capable of delivering. With a couple of deep shots to some WRs who should be open, there is a decent chance for some passing volume and yardage for Taylor and the Jets.

• And on the Ravens side, since coming back from Injury Lamar Jackson’s scramble rate is down from 27% to only 17% and his sack rate has ballooned to 10% this season. And while we should of course have a strong prior on Jackson being a terrific QB, the market is pricing him as fully his best self when the data simply does not back that up. For the season Jackson is 16th in EPA, 31st in PFF Grade, while taking sacks at the highest rate in the NFL. His accuracy is the lowest it has been in his career, and has set career lows in virtually all categories.

• While the Ravens are of course likely to still win, put these 2 together and I think there is some value on the Jets alts especially if the Ravens offensive struggles continue even in a good matchup— 13.5 is a lot of points and pricing in a Baltimore team that has not played to the billing so far this season.