Week 12 Betting Gameplan

Completely on me for not getting this out Saturday night, but some life stuff got in the way, unfortunately. But we have a full slate and week of football ahead and I am stoked. We are truly so blessed.

As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles (those not covered in other sections— SGPs + matchups have some within them!) some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and we’ll hit on some SGPs. I will try and keep these as short and succinct as possible and apologies for any typos— this is the cost of writing these quick.

Tails Angles:

SF:

It has been a while since we’ve had a QB with a fairly unknown range of outcomes and a pretty clear case for upside. Brandon Allen has not started a game in 3 years—which is itself revealing— but is also going to be playing QB in the Shanahan offense. That itself smells like tails when priced as a traditional backup QB.

Of course, we saw Nick Mullens, C.J Beathard, Jimmy Garoppolo among others have plenty of games with some huge passing numbers and with how reliant the team is on Yards After the Catch (most in the NFL in Shannahan era), QBs, relative to other teams, can be carried by their WRs on passing volume.

And the matchup is perhaps less difficult than perceived and priced. The Packers have been the 10th best team in dropback EPA and some other similar efficiency metrics but much of that is driven by turnover propping up their efficiency. Following a trade and some injuries, the Packers pass rush has taken a massive step back the last month, generating quick pressure on only 16% of plays (5th worst in NFL) with only a 30% pressure also 5th worst. The results have led to the Packers performing at a bottom 10 clip by EPA, Success Rate, YPA and virtually any pass efficiency metric you choose.

The team has played much more single coverage but will be without their best CB in Jaire Alexander to injury, leaving the team with 3 CBs in the bottom 25%ile in PFF grade combining play before and after the catchpoint.

All of this is to say: we’ve got a QB priced as a backup but is attached to a Shanahan offense that has elevated so many QBs before him in a matchup that should allow him to have some success. We can get some juicy odds on a Brandon Allen and SF build and get even more creative with the SGPs.

LAR

We spoke in our Stats & Angles note from earlier this week about the Eagles being perhaps the most complete team in the NFL right now from a high-level efficiency perspective. And it would be no surprise if they continued to dominate in this one.

But we like to play the tails here. We also discussed how they are perhaps more fragile than other typical “elite” offenses. Adjusted for situation, Philadelphia is the run-heaviest team in the NFL and has been reliant on the ground game for its explosive success and for limiting Hurts snaps on obvious passing downs where he has the 3rd highest sack rate and has struggled in his efficiency as well.

So this style of play is naturally a bit more prone to game state given that this style of offense does not work in a comeback setting, but requires playing from ahead (which they can do in most games considering the state of the defense).

But this spot can cause some troubles to the game script. The Rams run defense has been dominant over the last ~6 weeks with the 2nd best Rush Success Rate and 4th best EPA per rush (among other metrics you choose). Can the Eagles win this matchup? Of course. Is there also a possibility that the Rams can slow them down on the ground? Also yes— and certainly more likely than the cakewalk of rushing matchups the team has faced over the last 6 weeks.

And that’s the game script we can bet on where the Eagles continue to go to the ground with little success forcing some early 3 and outs and forcing Hurts into the obvious passing spots.

IND:

• We’re going long so some more quick hitters— I actually like the Lions at -7 but the Pierce angle can also be played without him and just betting on Richardson to have some success deep and for them to win on the backs of a big Richardson passing day. You don’t run on the Lions.

CHI/MIN:

• As we outlined in the Stats & Angles note this week, the Chicago defense has been quietly crumbling as of late. Darnold is perhaps the most situation dependent QB in the NFL and has the widest delta in EPA between disruption and non disruption plays. But this matchup is perhaps not as difficult as perceived against a defense allowing the 2nd highest EPA on early downs and the most Yds/play of any team in the NFL. On the ground or through the air, the Vikings can put up some points here.

• On the flipside of the ball, as we’ve discussed a few times, Williams has been a vastly different QB getting the ball out quick. And following a few games of disaster holding onto the ball forever Williams returned to getting it out quick last week with much more success. The Vikings are a massive pass-funell having been terrific against the run but struggling against the pass

• Can LAR O beat PHI D

• Path dependency of game given Hurts struggles with pressure

CHI/MIN:

Caleb TTT and pass-funell nature of MIN

Leveraging Tails:

Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

QB Baker Mayfield 250+ Passing Yards & Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 (+455 on Fanatics)

Let's start, as always, by examining the team fundamentals to establish a framework for our analysis.

The Buccaneers and Giants have been operating on entirely different levels this season. 

Though their defenses have performed roughly equally, there is a sizable difference between these two offenses.

This chart on series conversion rates tells a similar story, highlighting the significant disparity between these two offenses.

The -5.6/-6 line appears reasonable from a fundamentals perspective, but it’s worth noting that this sample includes a Giants offense led by Daniel Jones and a Tampa Bay offense missing Mike Evans, who is expected to return for this matchup. Considering these factors, the outlook for Tampa should be even more favorable relative to the samples above.

The Giants have been one of the league’s better units at generating quick pressure, both in recent weeks and throughout the season. However, their defensive success is heavily dependent on it. The team has nearly a 1.2-point difference in EPA allowed per play depending on whether they generate quick pressure, and they rank dead last in EPA allowed per play on plays without it.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers excel at mitigating quick pressure. Over the past month, they’ve faced quick pressure at one of the lowest rates in the NFL—a trend that holds for the season overall—even while going up against three above-average or better pass rushes during that span. This team is built to neutralize pressure and should have little trouble avoiding the Giants‘ quick pressure, allowing them to exploit a defense that struggles mightily without it.

On the other side of the ball, the Tampa Bay pass rush has surged recently as key players have returned to health, placing them firmly among the NFL’s top teams in generating quick pressure. They face a Giants offensive line that has struggled to prevent quick pressure, with Tommy DeVito particularly susceptible. Last season, DeVito posted a pressure-to-sack rate of 38%, eight percentage points worse than the next-lowest quarterback in that category.

DeVito’s sack issues are further compounded by the likelihood that he won’t be able to lean on the running game to ease the burden on the offense. The Buccaneers’ run defense has been stellar since Vita Vea returned earlier this season, ranking in the top 10 in both EPA allowed per rush and rush success rate allowed. This leaves DeVito facing plenty of obvious passing situations, where he ranked dead last in sack rate (19%) and recorded the worst EPA in the NFL.

This points to one key conclusion: while the Buccaneers‘ secondary is vulnerable, the Giants‘ offense may not be well-equipped to exploit it. With Tommy DeVito at quarterback, the Giants are particularly sensitive to pressure due to his sack tendencies, and their inability to generate a consistent run game only exacerbates the issue.

This creates two likely scenarios:

1). The Giants could struggle to score, allowing the Buccaneers to secure a decisive win.

2). The Buccaneers’ offense, led by Baker Mayfield, could benefit from increased play volume, even if they adopt a more run-heavy approach while playing from ahead. This would still provide plenty of opportunities for Mayfield to rack up yards and maintain control of the game.

Matchup Angles:

Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.

Miami Dolphins beat a New England Patriots defense that leans on man coverage

The New England Patriots are among the league leaders in terms of man coverage usage, right up there with the Detroit Lions. As PFF research has shown, man coverage emphasizes individual talent more than zone coverage—better wide receivers tend to outperform lesser cornerbacks, and the inverse is also true.

The Patriots‘ cornerbacks have struggled in man coverage this season. While Christian Gonzalez has performed at an average level, the rest of the secondary has bled production, frequently allowing large amounts of separation.

This is a major concern against a Miami offense featuring elite wide receiver talent in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. To make matters worse for New England, Gonzalez doesn’t shadow opposing receivers and typically stays on one side of the field. This means Hill and Waddle will likely run most of their routes away from the Patriots‘ only competent man-coverage cornerback.

Although Hill and Waddle have yet to fully break out this season, the Dolphins have thrived in the passing game against man coverage.

Tua Tagovailoa ranks third in the NFL in EPA against man coverage despite not heavily targeting his star wide receivers.

There are two ways to approach this matchup. First, it feels like only a matter of time before Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle break out in a big way. Against a New England defense that stubbornly sticks to man coverage and keeps Christian Gonzalez on one side of the field, this could be the perfect spot for them to deliver ceiling games. Second, even if the Dolphins continue attacking the short areas of the field, they are likely to find success, given how efficient they’ve been against man coverage overall.

I’ll be backing the Dolphins’ team total over, their spread, and same-game parlays featuring Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle, all centered on the narrative of a Miami offensive explosion.

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Los Angeles Chargers see off the Baltimore Ravens thanks to an explosive passing attack

In a 2022 study for PFF, we examined the critical role explosive plays play in driving overall success on offensive drives.

The Ravens have struggled to defend against explosive plays, allowing nearly 40% of opposing drives to include at least one. They have been particularly vulnerable in the passing game, where they rank among the top five in explosive pass play rate allowed.

Now comes a matchup with Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who have excelled in the explosive passing game, ranking third in the NFL in EPA per play this season.

Herbert has increased his deep passing rate over the past month, with 18.5% of his attempts targeting deep routes. The results have been stellar, as four of his top five deep-passing performances this season have come during this stretch.

Baltimore's challenge is compounded by its inability to generate consistent pressure, as the team ranks near the bottom of the league in both overall and quick pressure rates. This should give Herbert plenty of time in the pocket—he leads the NFL in EPA per play from a clean pocket—to dissect the Ravens defense and connect on explosive plays.

I’ll be targeting Herbert's passing overs, the Chargers‘ team total, and Same Game Parlays centered on the Chargers exploiting Baltimore through their explosive passing attack for a win.