Week 12 Betting Gameplan
Tails & Matchup Angles, SGPs
A glorious fall Sunday, we are truly so blessed to have a full slate on our hands.
As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other notes and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Can read the full tails case for HOU here:
QB uncertainty:
We have an extremely similar set up to as to last week with some extremely low QB props on uncertain QBs. I’ll repost what I wrote last week, the same reasoning that had us 4 Devito yards short of an 170:1 cash (RIP).
“We don’t have enough of a sample size to know whether or not these QBs are good, or better said for our purposes, whether or not they can put together a league average to slightly above average game. To varying degrees, markets are pricing each of these guys essentially saying that their 90-95 %ile passing yard game would be roughly NFL league average. But with such a small sample, we can’t possibly know, and certainly not with certainty, what each of these individual QBs right tail game might look like. There’s a big difference in my view in betting on a 90-95% ile game for any QB in the league as opposed to a (supposedly) bad QB putting together a league average yardage game. Not much needs to go right for an NFL QB to, even accidentally, throw for 225 or 250 yards in a game.”
Devito: He’s probably really bad. But he’s also in a favorable spot against a NE defense that is the 3rd biggest pass-funell (ie; easier to pass than run against) with a pass defense that is effectively bottom 5-10 in any metric. Again, as we saw lastw week, not much needs to go right for Devito to have an average game, and he might have plenty of volume with how putrid this NE offense is.
Browning: I prefer the CIN SGP build below, but I do still like Browning here. Markets tend to overprice the drop-off from good starters to back-ups, and Browning has a sneaky good spot against the man-heavy Steelers without the personnel to play man. It is no coincidence they are at the very bottom of the league allowing explosive plays. The usual alt pass +spread is firmly in play.
Levis/Young/DTR: I don’t think these matchups are particularly intriguing especially as most of their opponents have bad run defenses— but the logic certainly still applies here. Again, not much needs to go right for any QB to have an average passing-yard game.
PHI:
I certainly like BUF relative to market value as you’ll read below. But I do think there is an interesting tails with how concentrated + potentially explosive this PHI offense can be in a matchup against a struggling Bills D’. Usually WR1+WR2+RB1 alts are extremely uncorrelated (and priced as such) as those players production cannibalizes one another. But we have an interesting case here for why there’s value this week.
With Dallas Goedert out the targets have become extremely concentrated and where books are likely using average WR1 + WR2 + RB1 correlation pricing of any teams, PHI has perhaps the most concentrated distribution of touches now (MIA perhaps ahead). Further, books are stilling pricing in a median of Hurts rushing yards where he was fully healthy though he is running less often and certainly for fewer yards in recent weeks. Why this week? I’ll be building variations of parlays of all of AJB+Smith+Swift hitting their alts.
CHI:
As you’ll see in a graph below, MIN, despite their success is struggling in some key defensive areas including generating pressure and preventing separation. Books have still not yet adjusted to the Bears vertical passing offense they’ve let Fields operate since the middle of this season.
Matchup Angles:
MATCHUP ANGLE: LOS ANGELES RAMS QUARTERBACK MATTHEW STAFFORD PUTS ON A SHOW IN A SITUATIONAL ADVANTAGE AGAINST THE ARIZONA CARDINALS
• As we studied this summer, quarterbacks who scramble less (and scramble with minimal success) are far more situation-sensitive than those who can scramble and create for themselves.
• Matthew Stafford has the third-lowest scramble rate in the NFL and has traditionally been one of the league's most situation-sensitive signal-callers. The veteran dominates in structure, especially against weak secondaries.
• This Sunday, he takes on an Arizona defense that sits at the very bottom of the league in both pressure rate and separation rate allowed. The Cardinals present the perfect matchup for a quarterback like Stafford, who will be allowed to work within the structure of the offense where he can continually find open receivers with time in the pocket.
Bets to consider: I’ll be playing Matthew Stafford passing overs, Rams team total overs, Rams spread bets and some same-game parlays combining these angles.
MATCHUP ANGLE: THE BUFFALO BILLS’ SECONDARY WEAPONS ELEVATE THE TEAM
• In 2021, PFF studied the importance of secondary receivers in the modern NFL, especially in playoff games:
“When looking just at playoff games from 2006-2020, the dynamic does become more pronounced … having a great receiver or a couple of receivers is sufficient to beat many teams but maybe not the best teams when it matters most in January and February.”
• While written in 2021, the study was ahead of its time as it pertains to the Bills, who have struggled to win the biggest games with a lack of secondary options behind Stefon Diggs.
• We can see some value relative to market pricing in the form of the Bills giving Khalil Shakir, who has played 75% of his team's snaps over the last couple of weeks.
• Shakir has been absolutely terrific. He has been well above average at generating separation and is one of the best receivers in the league once the ball is released. With Kincaid's emergence, as well, it appears the Bills finally have some solid weapons behind Stefon Diggs.
• The Eagles have allowed the second-most separation of any team. Shakir taking advantage should prove essential if the Bills are to win.
Bets to consider: I’ll be betting on the Bills' alts and same-game parlays centered around the Bills and their passing attack, including Shakir in many builds.
SGPs:
RASHID SHAHEED DOMINATES IN THE WR2 ROLE EN ROUTE TO A NEW ORLEANS SAINTS WIN
• Shaheed has been dominant in every aspect of play, but he has become known as big play waiting to happen, earning top-tier PFF grades as a deep threat and after the catch.
• The Saints should be throwing often — and with success — against a pass-funnel Falcons team that is far better defending the run than the pass.
• With Michael Thomas out, Shaheed should step into an every-down role, where he will not only be a deep threat but can accumulate targets as a typical WR2 would.
PointsBet SGP Build: 50-1
WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints: 80+ receiving yards
WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints: Anytime touchdown
QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 250+ passing yards
New Orleans Saints: Moneyline
JAKE BROWNING LEANS ON JA’MARR CHASE EN ROUTE TO CINCINNATI BENGALS WIN
• Little needs to be said about Chase, who is dominant in most receiving categories, especially as a big-play artist.
• The Bengals star has been one of the league's best wide receivers at separating deep and creating explosive plays on non-deep passes.
• The Steelers have played man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, which figures to be a problem against Chase. As we’ve studied at PFF, man coverage reflects the talent on the field, and targets are far more predictable in man coverage than zone. The Steelers will likely be trotting out Patrick Peterson and his 59.4 PFF grade to guard Chase, one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
• Further, the Steelers have bled explosive plays this season, giving up the fourth-highest explosive pass play rate on the season, making this a sneaky good spot for Chase to rip off some huge plays to lead Browning and the passing attack.
PointsBet SGP Build: 40-1
QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals: 250+ passing yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: 125+ receiving yards
Cincinnati Bengals: Moneyline
KHALIL SHAKIR CONTINUES HIS EMERGENCE IN A FAVORABLE MATCHUP AGAINST THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
• Khalil Shakir has been an absolute revelation for the Bills. He has been one of the NFL's best receivers post-throw while dominating in terms of separation. As a result, Shakir has begun to emerge as the clear WR3 and has played 70% of the snaps over the last three weeks.
• Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled to prevent separation all season, ranking second-worst in the NFL in that regard.
• With the markets still building in a sample of Shakir as a part-time player, there is certainly value to be had with Shakir, considering his talent and the favorable matchup.
PointsBet SGP Build: 28-1
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills: 80+ receiving yards
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 250+ passing yards
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills: Anytime touchdown
As always, appreciate the support and thanks for That’s all for this week— let’s have ourselves a day!