Week 12 Stats & Angles

Macro Thoughts & Quick Hitters

Intro Note:

Football is a matchup and indisoynrcatic game where teams change their behavior over the course of a season, players improve,and random results and injuries can skew outcomes that don’t necessarily reflect underlying value.

I personally find that so much of my success betting at this point in the season relies on sifting through the data to understand the sample sizes that are the most relevant/predictive going forward. Simply taking averages or medians can get you some of the way to good pricing, but I think it misses the mark and certainly so on the tails.

By taking an intensive look at our data and understanding the context in which it lives we can (hopefully) stay a bit ahead of the market. This column, then— which is an experiment for now, feedback appreciated— will look at some of the stats and angles I’m monitoring as I parse through the data and try to stay ahead of the market. I won’t capture everything and the structure and style is all in flux, but a start nonetheless. Let’s dive in.

Again, this piece will be a work in progress so please let me know if you have some feedback and how I can make this better/change format etc. Would a week in review both from a team/player standpoint (charts) be helpful? Or perhaps a recap of process?

Macro Thoughts:

We haven’t spoken too much about Earned Drive Points (EDP) this season, but I’ve found myself thinking about it a bunch this week (for those unfamiliar, EDP looks at how teams move the ball sustainably and reproducibly over the course of a drive— can read the primer here). And as we explore in that note, where EDP is most potent predictively is in short term. So let’s take a look at how teams have performed via EDP for the season and over the last 5 weeks.

Now of course, this chart is not dispositive of success and is no one source of truth—like any fundamental metric we discuss, it is a set of data points that provide a decent frame for further analysis.

But what is perhaps most interesting to me looking at these charts is the lack of a clear dominant team on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are perhaps closest with a defense that has dominated of late and an offense that has been good, but not great. But they are extremely matchup dependent in the passing game given Hurts struggles with pressure. Meanwhile, some of the best offenses like the Lions, Ravens, Packers, and Commanders have had defenses among the worst in the NFL. More so than most years, I think, we are going to have a wide open race down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Also worth noting here is some of the moves teams have made in recent weeks from our left chart to our right one. Like we’ve discussed, the defenses of the Rams, Eagles, and Commanders have all taken steps forward. But there are plenty of teams we have not discussed explicitly including the Bears D’ who have taken a huge step back in their defensive drive efficiency as their run defense has collapsed allowing the 4 highest Yds/play games over the last 4.

Of course, the name of the game as we discuss at the top, is the ability to provide context and parse through this data to capture some real signal….which is why we also take a look at some quick hitter style notes on players and teams.

Quick Hitters:

Caleb Williams Time To Throw

• We discussed a few weeks back how post bye, Caleb Williams was holding onto the ball on average for an extra -0.5 to 0.8 seconds nearly doubling his rate of QB-induced pressure and nuking his overall production. Last week, Williams went back to his early season Time to Throw (2.7s) and his rate of QB included pressures— pressure that arrives after play has had chance to develop— was the lowest it’s been all season. I’ll be wanting to monitor live if Caleb Williams is holding onto the ball or moving it out quick.

C.J Stroud and Texans O-line:

• In an earlier note, we mentioned that the Texans have had trouble on the offensive line allowing an egregious pressure percentage in their last few weeks.

• But the team benched Kenyon Green after Week 9 as he was dead last in PFF grade among OG at 39.4. And offensive line is a weak link system (ok, make the jokes about weak-link references) and filling that weak link has drastically improved their offensive line outcomes.

• After averaging a 34% pressure disruption in the previous 3 weeks, following Green’s benching the team has allowed pressure disruption on 20% and 17.5% of plays the last 2 weeks.

• Quick Pressure? Near 35% over that span with Green and only 16% the last two weeks.

• Is there some noise + confounding factors here? Ofc. But is there likely some (directional) signal in benching one of the worst guards in football and the team’s offensive line drastically improving? Also yes. This is why we add this context to the data and don’t simply take averages.

• I would argue the recent sample of Texans O-line will be most predictive going forward. And for Stroud, who had the 5th biggest delta between disruption EPA vs non disruption EPA (0.89), those couple of plays with less pressure disruption add up quick for their overall offensive output.

Washington Offense:

• One of the teams that had the most significant move on our charts above was the Washington offense, an elite unit for the season but having taken a large step back over the last 6 weeks. Now part of that is certainly driven by some matchups with tough defenses including the past 2 weeks against the Steelers and Eagles. And perhaps there is an element of Daniels playing hurt affecting his production

  • (I am less inclined to think the injury is playing a massive part in this considering Daniels had 2 of his best games of the season against Chicago (even pre hail mary) and the Giants which both occurred post injury)

• But where is that loss of production coming from especially in the last few games? If we break down Daniels EPA into various buckets, the one with the biggest difference during this recent downturn is Daniels EPA on 1) non-disrupted plays and 2) plays where Daniels is in rhythm and throwing to his first read, or what I’ll sometimes call “system plays.” This has been especially true these past 2 weeks against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia where Daniels had his worst 2 games of the season by EPA in his system plays and undisturbed plays. Where Daniels maintained his incredible (relative) efficiency is on plays where the structure breaks down (disturbed) and when he is forced to scramble and look beyond his second where his numbers are aligned with his season averages which are top 3 in the NFL.

• What, then, are we to make of it? There is certainly some compelling evidence about Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses fading over the second half of the season.And these metrics above, which quantify some schematic elements, lend some evidence to the scheme not being as effective.

• But there are cofounding factors at play and it is also possible that Kliff’s scheme is bad really is “WAS has played a harder schedule.” I think my takeaway is that it is not the time to sell on this offense just yet and they should still project as one of the best in football. But they are perhaps more vulnerable to good opposing defenses and are not matchup agnostic just yet (as we thought might be the case last week).

Mahomes Sack Avoidance:

• Among the many mind-boggling stats Patrick Mahomes has produced over the years included a stretch in 2022-2023 spanning for close to 20 games and nearly 200 scrambles where he did not take a single sack on a scramble. His ability to avoid sacks was ming-boggling.

• And while much of Mahomes statistical profile looks fairly similar outside of an ADOT which continues to decrease YoY, the biggest difference in production from Mahomes YoY lies in sack avoidance.

• On plays with disruption, Mahomes never had a season above a 7% sack rate. This year, though, Mahomes has a 12.5% sack rate which is middle of the pack in the NFL, but accounts for a decent chunk of lost production relative to his past self. Similarly—and with some overlap— Mahomes pressure to sack rate is 16.5% despite his career average coming out to ~10.5%.

• Our prior on Mahomes, I think, should remain strong. But he is not without flaws and his ability to avoid sacks and mitigate disruption are difficult to ignore going forward.

  That’s all for now! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball! Sharing these posts really helps me out and I’m extremely grateful to all those who have and continue to share them.