Week 13 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Had some extra time to get way ahead of my prep and thankfully most of the lines we have our out, allowing us to get this one out super early.

As always, we’ll discuss tails angles, matchups the market is I think not properly accounting for and some SGPs. Of course, there are plenty of tails angles within the SGPs and matchups to be played separately, and the goal is as always to match the research presented without your own thoughts. Apologies for typos wanted to get this out ASAP!

Tails Angles:

TEN:

• As we’ve talked about for years, it takes time for QBs to develop and even within season rookie QBs tend to improve as they become more comfortable.

• And this has been the case for Cam Ward who has posted positive EPA games in 3 of his last 4, including the last two against the dominant Seattle and Houston defenses. There is good evidence to suggest Ward is improving and a much easier matchup could yield some serious dividends. And in terms of volume, following a very run heavy start, the Titans have been passing over expectation each of the last 3 weeks.

• We’ve been selling this Jaguars defense now for a number of weeks, and they are likely to be without Travon Walker in this one, for a defense that has generated most of its value from a 45% pressure rate that is 5th in the NFL. And this a classic pass funnell defense in Jacksonville with the biggest gap in Success Rate between running and passing and teams have passed against Jacksonville relative to expectation more than any team in the NFL. There is a clear path to volume and efficiency for Ward with the market, I think, not properly indexing on his last few games which carry far more signal in my view than the earlier season games, given his point in his career and what we know about QB development.