Week 13 Betting Gameplan
Matchup & Tails Angles, SGPs
Can’t believe it’s already Week 13, the season goes by too quickly.
As usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other notes and some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Can read the full tails case for IND here:
Tails Angles:
With an ugly slate and many teams on bye, there’s not too much on my card for this week, but there are always a few tails angles worth checking out.
GB:
Over the last 6-7 weeks these teams have look awfully similar fundamentally. Love has gotten considerably better as the season has gone along by any metric you’d want to use. Considering his experience level, I’m willing to buy that as possible signal—at least worth playing on the tails. The market is pricing in a premium on the KC defense, implied as the 4th best D’ in the NFL and with Love’s props sitting at a lowly 215. But defenses are notoriously unsticky, especially when going up against good offenses.
And if Love and the Packers are as good as their recent play suggests, and if the KC offense has more potential priced in than actual production, there’s a clear path to GB pulling off the upset here, especially if Love connects on a few of those deep balls he surely will take. I’ll likely play a GB angle, along with some Love+GB alts and sprinkling in some SGP builds with one of the GB receivers popping off, like we did on Thanksgiving.
Olave:
This is what we wrote last week on Thanksgiving, which equally applies in this spot. “On the DET side, over the last 5-6 weeks teams have been attacking DET far deeper than any other opponent (10,1 ADOT) which has resulted in DET allowing a bottom 5 in the NFL explosive play rate.”
Derek Carr is 7th in deep throw % and will surely be launching it deep here often. But with Shaheed out, and Chris Olave effectively the only healthy WR, I’d rather just bet on his alts— both because he is all extremely likely to be the recipient of the deep balls, but also because he doesn’t *need* the deep passes in order to still have a huge day (see his first half last week). As we’ll discuss below, I like DET in this spot, but betting on Olave (and maybe even some darts on A.T Perry?— books have no good sense of how to price his distributions given the uncertainty) and combining that with a DET play from ahead game script leads to some appealing SGPs.
NE:
Like what we’ve spoken about in each of the last few weeks, we have a spot with a likely bad but highly uncertain QB in a terrific matchup. Especially in this matchup, not much needs to go right for Zappe to hit 275 and for NE to win by a score, and we can get that for 140:1. Hey, in one of Zappe’s 2 career starts he threw for 300 yards in a NE 20+ point win?
Matchup Angles
Matchup Angle: The Miami Dolphins dominate a Washington Commanders defense that leans on man coverage
The market is aware that the Commanders defense has struggled this season and the Miami Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL. But even still, a few matchup factors suggest that even with pricing, the Dolphins maintain a fat right tail markets are likely mispricing.
Washington has played man coverage at a top-five rate both for the season and maintaining that trend in recent weeks, where they rank top-five over the last six games. As we studied at PFF, man coverage more so than zone, reflects the talent on the field where good WRs beat good CBs and vice versa.
And against man coverage, there are few WRs better in the NFL than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with Hill leading the league in Yards Per Route Run, and with Waddle not far behind. While Kendall Fuller is having a terrific year, he is no match for Hill and Waddle who will move around the formation and run many routes facing the multiple week links in the Commander's secondary.
Further elevating and compounding in this spot is that the Dolphins have generated the most explosive drives of any offense in the NFL this season, while the Commanders have allowed the second most explosive drives. Add it up and the Dolphins have a path to continually lighting up the scoreboard and doing so fast and via chunk yardage.
Bets: In a spot where points can really add up quick for the Dolphins with the man-mismatch and explosive angle, I will be playing some alt spreads while building SGPs around Tua, Hill and Waddle.
Matchup Angle: Bet on Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff in spot with situational advantage
As we studied this summer at PFF, certain QBs traits, especially those who rarely scramble render them more situation and matchup sensitive than those who more frequently scramble.
And Jared Goff almost precisely fits the bills of a situation dependent QB with one of the lowest scramble rates in the NFL and drastic splits when playing in and out of structure. Goff has the 4th best EPA/Play when he does not see quick pressure, but Goff dips to 26th in EPA/Play when he does face quick pressure.
And his week 13 opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have the 3rd lowest quick pressure rate in the NFL and, as you can see, have the lowest quick pressure rate generated over the last 7 weeks. A matchup against this Saints defense should surely allow more plays where Goff does not see quick pressure, a spot the Lions have struggled with so far this season.
Bets: I’ll be looking to bet on the Lions spread and alt spreads, along with DET TT O, and Goff passing props.
SGPs:
Story: Kyler connects on some deep passes en route to Cardinals win
The Steelers defense has struggled to stop explosive plays this season, allowing the 2nd highest rate of explosive pass plays, and the third highest rate of drives with explosive plays.
Kyler Murray, meanwhile, has been one of the most aggressive deep passers with the 3rd highest deep passing rate this season, which is in line with his previous career rates. While the results have not shown up this year in a small sample, for his career on deep passes, Kyler is 7th in PFF grade and 8th in Big time Throw Percentage.
Now it is worth noting that the value here comes precisely because Kyler has yet to connect on the deep passes this season (that would have led to some higher passing yardage games). This has left his prop at a low 205 yards. But I’d put more stock in the tendencies of Murray throwing deep and his previous success doing so, especially in a matchup against the Steelers that struggle to defend explosive plays.
Add in that Murray has been hesitant to run this season (though his medians are pricing many expected rushes) and this might just be the game where Kyler puts it all together through the air.
Build: 140:1 Points Bet
Kyler Murray 300 Yards
AZ -6.5
Story: Downs continues his emergence in Colts win
We discussed a bullish case for the Colts passing offense in Leveraging Tails this week, but this build narrows in on that story trying to key on a more specific angle by which the Colts passing offense will have success.
Since Week 6, when Josh Downs emerged as the WR2 for the Colts and with Gardner Minshew at QB, Downs has been a target monster and has been one of the very best in the NFL after the catch. And it is this dominance after the catch through which Downs can rack up yards, especially if he breaks a long one.
Despite such a commanding share and his dominance after the catch, Downs is priced with a low ceiling, likely building in his role in a different offense with Anthony Richardson and some recent weeks limited to injury. But when healthy, as he is now, Downs has been a frequent target– and the Colts, as we discussed, should be passing often and with this success in this spot against the pass-funnell Titans.
Build: 30:1 Points Bet
Josh Downs 6 Receptions
Josh Downs 110 Receiving Yards
Colts ML
Story: Brown explodes against SF Defense filtering targets to WRs
While certainly not novel, A.J Brown has put together another dominant campaign atop the league in virtually every WR category in terms of his output and with his underlying play in terms of his ability to separate and win at the catchpoint/after the catch.
San Francisco filters targets to WRs as they have allowed the 3rd most targets to WRs and the 2nd most receptions.
Further, teams have passed more than expected against the Niners more than any other NFL team, suggesting that there will be plenty of volume to go around– and with such a concentration of touches for the Eagles, Brown might receive targets in the teens, where he can truly pop for a ceiling game.
Build: 35:1 Points Bet
AJ Brown 140 Yds
AJ Brown Anytime TD
Jalen Hurts 300 Yards
As always, appreciate the support and share the good word about Throwthedamball!