Week 14 Betting Gameplan

Tails & Matchup Angles + SGPs

A glorious fall Chanukah Sunday— hopefully we’re all left with a nice SGP present for all to celebrate by the end of the weekend.

A light card for me this week but as usual, in this note we’ll cover some tails angles not mentioned in the other notes, some matchups the market is perhaps overlooking and mispricing, and some SGPs. Can read the full tails case for MIA here:

Tails Angles:

• This game came very in as close second to be our Leveraging Tails column for the week, as I love ths tails spot for Fields passing and the Bears alts.

• Some core angles: Fields best asset throwing has been his downfield ability, where he has been one of the best deep passers in the NFL this season. The Lions, meanwhile have been bleeding explosive passing plays and allowing the highest ADOT over the last couple of months of the season. The full season sample (better DET defense) does not properly describe the current reality of a defense really struggling.

• And the inverse is true of the Bears defense that has been average on defense for the full season ( market is pricing them bottom 10) but has been dominant over the last couple of months as they’ve gotten healthier.

  Led by an elite Run D, and with the Lions set to miss key run blocker Frank Ragnow, I anticipate the Lions offense having a bit of a harder time than usual running/moving the ball and certainly less offense than market assumes. This would mean both increased play volume for CHI and also fewer points. All of this makes the Fields alts + Bears spreads very appealing to me.

TB vs ATL

• Determined by EPA, these teams are #5 and #6 pass-funnels in the NFL, meaning they are far easier to pass against than run against. This could tilt 2 of the more run heavy teams to the pass and both doing so would leave the potential for this game to shootout.

• While I like both, I prefer building around Ridder as his prop lines are pathetically low. Again, not much needs to go right, especially in a great matchup, for Ridder to have an average passing output game.

LAR:

• While I love the Kupp angle we’ll discuss below did not want the core tails angle to get lost to the SGP. (As a reminder, I usually do not include below SGPS/Matchup angles in this tails section as the logic there is usually clear how it translates to a tails play, but just want to highlight why I think Stafford+Rams are in play).

• While the Ravens defense has been terrific and there is reported bad weather– though again, at the time of this writing appears to be overblown– the props for Stafford, and the Rams are at the lowest we’ve seen and likely will see all season. But there is likely more uncertainty than the market assumes. The Ravens D’ has been terrific all season but the Rams are likely their toughest passing offense to go against.

Matchup Angles:

MATCHUP ANGLE: C.J. STROUD’S SCRAMBLING ABILITY GIVES HIM AN ADVANTAGE VS. THE NEW YORK JETS DEFENSE

• As we studied this summer, quarterbacks who rarely scramble and fail to create positive results on scrambles will be far more sensitive to matchups against good defenses than those who scramble and scramble well.

• As C.J. Stroud has gotten more comfortable in the NFL, he has begun to scramble far more often and has been terrific when doing so, ranking fourth at his position in expected points added (EPA) on those plays.

• The Texans signal-caller has also been terrific at extending plays under pressure without taking many sacks. His ability to extend the play has allowed receivers to break open, diminishing the need for his receivers to win immediately and allowing enough time for coverage to break down.

• Meanwhile, sportsbooks are pricing in a huge discount on Stroud and the Texans — at the time of this writing, the weather does not appear to be too much of a factor — likely because of the Jets' terrific defense.

• But Stroud’s traits should enable him to evade pressure and buy enough time for his receivers to break open. Matchups matter less to Stroud than they do to other passers, but the prices do not match this reality.

Bets to make: C.J. Stroud alt passing lines, the Texans spread and same-game parlays combining the passing lines and spreads.

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MATCHUP ANGLE: GREEN BAY PACKERS’ JORDAN LOVE PICKS APART NEW YORK GIANTS’ MAN COVERAGE SCHEME

• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field — the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.

• The Giants have played man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, but their corners have really struggled to prevent separation. Starting slot cornerback Cor'Dale Flott has prevented separation at the lowest rate at his position.

• All four of the Packers' young receivers are at least above average in separation percentage, granting them a massive situational advantage over the Giants in Week 14.

• Quarterback Jordan Love has been terrific against man coverage, too. Over the last five weeks, he has generated 0.28 EPA per play against man coverage. Aggregated over the full season, that mark would rank second in the NFL.

Bets to make: Packers team total overs, Jordan Love props and some same-game parlay builds that tell the story of the Packers dominating through the air.

SGPs:

Note: Yes, there are some weather issues on the board today, but if anything that adds to my conviction in the tails plays— rain seems to improve offense if anything, and none of the projected wins should be prohibitive to the offenses we’re betting on. Nonetheless, the market is pricing a steep sell off. I’ll buy.

Story: Wide receiver Josh Downs beats the Cincinnati Bengals for some explosive plays en route to an Indianapolis Colts win

• The Cincinnati Bengals have been absolutely dreadful this season preventing explosive plays, dead last in the NFL in explosive play rate and with an even further gap in allowing drives with an explosive play. 

• While Michael Pittman has been a terrific possession receiver for the Colts, the deep passing game is not his strength as he is last among Colts WR in deep grade, and his after the catch ability remains limited. Josh Downs, however, leads the team in both deep separation and yards after the catch allowing him multiple avenues to break a big play and expose Cincinnati where they are weakest. 

• And if Downs is breaking out for some big plays that should surely propel Minshew well over his prop in a game script that likely features the Colts winning far more often than the market pricing. 

PointsBet SGP Build: 45-1

• WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: 95+ receiving yards

• QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 275+ passing yards

• Indianapolis Colts: Moneyline

Story: Los Angeles Rams lean on wide receiver Cooper Kupp and the passing game and secure the win vs. Baltimore Ravens 

• It might seem as though Cooper Kupp has lost a step and is bothered by injuries and his production has certainly stalled over the last few weeks. 

• But that does not mean we should overlook the underlying numbers which still show Kupp as a terrific separator and, while it hasn’t happened in a while, he is still dynamic after the catch.

• And while the Ravens defense has been terrific and there is reported bad weather– though again, at the time of this writing appears to be overblown– the props for Kupp, Stafford, and the Rams are at the lowest we’ve seen and likely will see all season. 

• But there is likely more uncertainty than the market assumes. The Ravens D’ has been terrific all season but the Rams are likely their toughest passing offense to go against and the team has relied on dominant play from S and frequent slot CB Kyle Hamilton who has not faced a WR with Kupp’s abilities. 

• While a more extended build at deeper odds than we’re accustomed to building, we can compound our advantage with a still tight story– if indeed the Rams have success via the pass and attack with Kupp

DraftKings SGP Build: 325-1

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 275+ passing yards

RB Kyren Williams: Under 70.5 rushing yards

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams 5+ receptions & 110+ receiving yards

Los Angeles Rams: -3

Story: Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud relies on wide receiver Noah Brown in Tank Dell’s absence

• Tank Dell’s devastating leg injury has left plenty of volume accounted for in the Texans, where Noah Brown figures to slot in and accumulate.  

• Brown, the 27 year old receiver, is enjoying a breakout season for the Texans, separating well above average and with a top 5 grade at the catchpoint and after the catch. Life is good with C.J Stroud at QB. 

• Brown, who runs more than half his routes from the slot, happens to have the best matchup of the Texans WRs, avoiding Sauce Gardner and D.J Reed PFF’s 5th and 6th ranked CBs this season. 

• Further, as we discussed in our matchups column, Stroud’s ability to extend plays and scramble should help to mitigate the Jets defensive matchup advantages allowing us to benefit from the depressed pricing. This build allows us to hone in on this story and take a look at which of his receivers are the most likely beneficiaries of the depressed pricing. 

PointsBet SGP Build: 55-1

WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: 95+ receiving yards 

WR Noah Brown, Houston Texans: Anytime touchdown

QB C.J Stroud, Houston Texans: 275+ passing yards

That’s all for this week! As always, appreciate the support and spread the good word about Throwthedamball— we’re nearing a subscriber milestone which I deeply appreciate.